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[Other Sport] 2019 Grand National - Saturday 6th April











A1X

A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
17,725
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Is this the race where loads of them end up dying or is that a different one?
 








Two Professors

Two Professors

Two Mad Professors
Jul 13, 2009
7,617
Multicultural Brum
Rock the Kasbah stands out for me,but the best I've ever done is an each-way bet fourth place,so probably a donkey!
 






Simster

Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,166
Surrey
casbom said:
I thought Tiger Roll just needed to turn up no?
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He is a class act - incredibly impressive at Cheltenham last month, arguably the most impressive of all the stars running there. But the GN is different, it's a four miler, the fences are challenging and so much can go wrong. What if he just doesn't fancy it on the day? What if he gets taken down by an early pace setter who then falls? He's the favourite but 7/2 is just way too short.

I was on Pleasant Company last year, and he lost by a nose to Tiger Roll. He's available at 24.0 on the exchange but reckon that's too short as well. I'd have had a dabble with Anibale Fly except I think he's carrying too much now so I'm going for either Mall Dini or Jury Duty.
 


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,708
Back in Sussex
Simster said:
He is a class act - incredibly impressive at Cheltenham last month, arguably the most impressive of all the stars running there. But the GN is different, it's a four miler, the fences are challenging and so much can go wrong. What if he just doesn't fancy it on the day? What if he gets taken down by an early pace setter who then falls? He's the favourite but 7/2 is just way too short.

I was on Pleasant Company last year, and he lost by a nose to Tiger Roll. He's available at 24.0 on the exchange but reckon that's too short as well. I'd have had a dabble with Anibale Fly except I think he's carrying too much now so I'm going for either Mall Dini or Jury Duty.
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Agree with the general sentiment, which is why the 4/1 on offer represents only a 20% chance.

The Cross Country at Cheltenham was just a smidge under 4 miles, BTW.
 


Simster

Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,166
Surrey
Bozza said:
Agree with the general sentiment, which is why the 4/1 on offer represents only a 20% chance.

The Cross Country at Cheltenham was just a smidge under 4 miles, BTW.
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At least he's drifted a touch. I went into PP on Monday and they had him at 3s!!
 




Billy Seagull

Billy Seagull

Bookie Basher
Jul 5, 2003
1,432
The National is a race I look to back in for most of the year up to it with a view to making a decent ante post book which I have done successfully for a few years now including last year backing Tiger Roll at 125/1, 50/1 and 25/1. I started in April last year with Step Back at 60/1 after he won the Whitbread. I added Vintage Clouds in October at 35/1 and 28/1 and followed that up with some more at 40/1 after he ran poorly in the Welsh National in December. When the weights came put I thought Tiger Roll was incredibly well handicapped and backed him on the machine at an average of 26.4/1 and also with the books at 22/1 to win the Cross Country at Cheltenham and the National.

Ladbrokes also made a howler when pricing up the specials after Tiger Roll had won his hurdle race in Ireland as they offered 6/1 on Gordon Elliott training the winner and Gigginstown Stud to won the winner at 8/1. Bearing in mind that Tiger was as low as 12/1 then, they had made a large rick in my opinion and I backed it accordingly. At that stage GE had 22 entries and GS had 14 entries. Looks like GE will have 13 runners with GS 6 or 7 depending on if they sell Don Poli and Outlander. The prices are about 2/1 and 5/2 now.

Summing up, this is my team this year.

Tiger Roll 26.4/1, 22/1.
Rathvinden 36/1
Vintage Clouds 40/1, 35/1, 28/1, 20/1
Step Back 60/1, 33/1
Vieux Lion Rouge 33/1
Nobel Endevour 55/1
Don Poli 54/1
Captain Redbeard 96/1

Bet £3.65 also do an offer where you can stake upto £125 EW and they give you half your stake back immediately. This is the best offer from them all year and very hard to lose on if you cover the front 7 or 8 in the betting. That is if anyone has a working account with them of course. This will be be for bets placed after the declarations on Thursday, if they do the offer.

Do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
 


B

Betfair Bozo

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,094
Simster said:
He is a class act - incredibly impressive at Cheltenham last month, arguably the most impressive of all the stars running there. But the GN is different, it's a four miler, the fences are challenging and so much can go wrong. What if he just doesn't fancy it on the day? What if he gets taken down by an early pace setter who then falls? He's the favourite but 7/2 is just way too short.

I was on Pleasant Company last year, and he lost by a nose to Tiger Roll. He's available at 24.0 on the exchange but reckon that's too short as well. I'd have had a dabble with Anibale Fly except I think he's carrying too much now so I'm going for either Mall Dini or Jury Duty.
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The National fences are nowadays arguably less challenging than some of the Cheltenham cross country fences. I also think the so much can go wrong line, which you will hear right up to the start of the race, is overplayed too. Sure, you could get brought down, as you could in any NH race, but I think luck in running plays more of a role in large field flat races these days. I believe that Clan Royal was the last horse to be carried out and that was 14 years ago. Once they are through the first half circuit and the field has thinned out a bit the jockeys can plot a safer course round. The distance is not an issue, he obviously stays it. I wouldn't be a backer at 7/2, 4/1 but I will probably be tempted if a firm dangles a carrot at 11/2 or bigger. I backed Pleasant Company AP at 33/1 and will also back Tea For Two (currently 80's with the firms and around 100 on BF) probably on Friday when I suspect one or two firms will go 7 or more places EW.
 


Billy Seagull

Billy Seagull

Bookie Basher
Jul 5, 2003
1,432
Billy Seagull said:
Bet £3.65 also do an offer where you can stake upto £125 EW and they give you half your stake back immediately. This is the best offer from them all year and very hard to lose on if you cover the front 7 or 8 in the betting. That is if anyone has a working account with them of course. This will be be for bets placed after the declarations on Thursday, if they do the offer.

Do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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This offer is on again this year for bets placed before Midday on Saturday and is the best offer from all the shysters.....not that it helps me:tantrum: My beard accounts should be ok however:angel:
 










Billy Seagull

Billy Seagull

Bookie Basher
Jul 5, 2003
1,432
The Bet £3.65 offer - I've dodged Tiger Roll as I have to win a few grand so have concentrated on the others even though I think Tiger Roll will win. This is how I have bet across the two accounts I have access to. The £125 refunds came back into the accounts within minutes and as they are best odds guaranteed I'm happy to play the prices now. They may drift later Today but will be shorter Tomorrow I feel. Offer ends midday Tomorrow.

These are all each way....
Anibale Fly £22 10/1
Rathvinden £22 10/1
Lake View Lad £15 14/1
Pleasant Company £10 20/1
Rock The Kasbah £12 20/1
Jury Duty £10 18/1
Joe Farrell £10 20/1
Ramses De Teillee £8 20/1
Walk In The Mill £8 25/1
One For Arthur £8 25/1

Anibale Fly £21 10/1
Rathvinden £21 10/1
Vintage Clouds £18 12/1
Lake View Lad £15 14/1
Pleasant Company £10 20/1
Rock The Kasbah £10 20/1
Jury Duty £10 20/1
Joe Farrell £10 20/1
Step Back £10 20/1
 




Iggle Piggle

Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,313
Billy Seagull said:
The Bet £3.65 offer - I've dodged Tiger Roll as I have to win a few grand so have concentrated on the others even though I think Tiger Roll will win. This is how I have bet across the two accounts I have access to. The £125 refunds came back into the accounts within minutes and as they are best odds guaranteed I'm happy to play the prices now. They may drift later Today but will be shorter Tomorrow I feel. Offer ends midday Tomorrow.

These are all each way....
Anibale Fly £22 10/1
Rathvinden £22 10/1
Lake View Lad £15 14/1
Pleasant Company £10 20/1
Rock The Kasbah £12 20/1
Jury Duty £10 18/1
Joe Farrell £10 20/1
Ramses De Teillee £8 20/1
Walk In The Mill £8 25/1
One For Arthur £8 25/1

Anibale Fly £21 10/1
Rathvinden £21 10/1
Vintage Clouds £18 12/1
Lake View Lad £15 14/1
Pleasant Company £10 20/1
Rock The Kasbah £10 20/1
Jury Duty £10 20/1
Joe Farrell £10 20/1
Step Back £10 20/1
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Brave putting your 365 bets up. They are well known for trawling social media and banning accordingly. I'd also argue that you have to treat your 365 accounts like beautiful women not smash them for the full 125 like an Essex girl in a nightclub!
 


Billy Seagull

Billy Seagull

Bookie Basher
Jul 5, 2003
1,432
I’m not fussed about the accounts and rarely use them so not worried what the snivelling bunch of shysters do.
 


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