Juan Albion
Chicken Sniffer 3rd Class
10,000/1?
I know nothing about gambling,so what do you reckon?
I know nothing about gambling,so what do you reckon?
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[Albion] What odds do you think you would have got on the goalie doing that?
- Thread starter Juan Albion
- Start date
Foul Play Rocks
Well-known member
- Feb 23, 2013
- 5,180
I know nothing about gambling either so I reckon you’re right.
Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
Nice accumulator here
I know little about gambling, but a bit about goalkeeping. If I’d been in goal for that, I’d say I’d expect to deal with it comfortably (at least by pushing it wide of the goal) at least 9 times out of 10. So 10/1 chance of the cock up.
For a pro keeper, I reckon you ‘expect’ a mistake on such a routine ball, maybe once in 50 or so times. So 50/1 in a relaxed situation, maybe down to 30/1 in the last minute of a huge game, with all the associated pressures.
If you watch the slo mo from in/behind the goal, you can see the ball is swirling HORRIBLY with the combo of wind and the spin/curl Solly has put on it. Very difficult to judge.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Yes, BUT the ball was going wide until the keeper tried to palm it away, missed it with his left hand, and it glanced off the inside of his right to deflect it back into the goal. It's not simply an error, it's a disaster.
Mtoto
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2003
- 1,841
Odds about us scoring at that point would have been around 33-1 (the price for a draw on Betfair), having probably come down a little after the free-kick was awarded in a dangerous position. The average chance of scoring from any single corner is about the same ie. about 3pc.
But that's just to score. The proportion of that little bit of chance that's taken up Solly overhitting the free kick and then the goalie palming it into the net when he could have just let it go wide is extremely small.
But that's just to score. The proportion of that little bit of chance that's taken up Solly overhitting the free kick and then the goalie palming it into the net when he could have just let it go wide is extremely small.
Maybe my #GKUnion bias is clouding my judgement, but I wouldn't put ANY blame on the keeper at all for not leaving it - it was way too close to call, to be able to do that. If he'd deliberately left it, and the wind had taken it in off the post, that would have been a far bigger error than the honest mishandling one he actually made.
For me, his mistake was to try to CATCH a tricky high ball, at all. I've always maintained that trying to catch shots above head height, is over-rated. Of course you SHOULD hold most of them safely, but the risk of letting it through your hands, or more likely dropping it into the path of an on-rushing striker is far greater than the risk of conceding from the corner that would result from taking the 100% safe option of pushing it over the bar.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
The slow mo video from the club makes it look like it went straight through Martin's hands without a touch. As Warren says on the commentary, he looks like he's 'cleaning windows'.