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[Football] The Times: Albion is the luckiest club in the FA Cup 3rd Round draw



SUA Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 23, 2016
408
Stratford-upon-Avon
According to an analysis in today’s Times, since 1958/59, the first season of the modern four-tier league format, Albion are the luckiest club in the draw for the Third Round of the FA Cup, measured by reference to:

(i) the weakness of their opponents (average tier 2.49 (where PL = tier 1 and non-league = tier 5)), and
(ii) the proportion of games played at home (0.61).

Our aggregate “luck score” in the Times’ analysis is the sum of these two numbers, i.e. 3.10.

BHA FACR3.JPG
2H FACR3.JPG

By this measure, Palace are the 5th unluckiest team with an aggregate score of 2.49 with Man Utd the 7th unluckiest team on 2.52, matched by Arsenal on 2.52.

The analysis is skewed to the extent that not every team has played the same number of 3rd round ties (we’ve only played 41 games - the joint lowest with Swindon and Oldham - whereas many others have played 59,60 or 61 games) and the vast majority of clubs listed have played more than 50 games.

It's an interesting analysis nevertheless and I would never have guessed the correct answer had that question been asked of me in a quiz!

One for [MENTION=435]Stat Brother[/MENTION]’s database!
 




Lurchy

Well-known member
Jul 2, 2014
2,341
It didn't feel like the luckiest draws, all those times we wanted a Man Utd or Liverpool and got Middlesbrough or somesuch

^This. When you're a fan of a club in the third or lower tier all you want is for your club to draw one of the top clubs. Drawing someone from a parallel or lower league isn't who you want to be drawn out of the bag with.
 




Perkino

Well-known member
Dec 11, 2009
5,978
Our relevant position should be taken into consideration. We may have had many 2nd tier draws but we've rarely been the better team
 




knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
12,946
Interesting bit of fun.
How do they work out the average tier figure?
Aren't teams missing such as Exeter?
 





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