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    Jul 2016

    The Times: Albion is the luckiest club in the FA Cup 3rd Round draw

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    According to an analysis in today’s Times, since 1958/59, the first season of the modern four-tier league format, Albion are the luckiest club in the draw for the Third Round of the FA Cup, measured by reference to:

    (i) the weakness of their opponents (average tier 2.49 (where PL = tier 1 and non-league = tier 5)), and
    (ii) the proportion of games played at home (0.61).

    Our aggregate “luck score” in the Times’ analysis is the sum of these two numbers, i.e. 3.10.

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    By this measure, Palace are the 5th unluckiest team with an aggregate score of 2.49 with Man Utd the 7th unluckiest team on 2.52, matched by Arsenal on 2.52.

    The analysis is skewed to the extent that not every team has played the same number of 3rd round ties (we’ve only played 41 games - the joint lowest with Swindon and Oldham - whereas many others have played 59,60 or 61 games) and the vast majority of clubs listed have played more than 50 games.

    It's an interesting analysis nevertheless and I would never have guessed the correct answer had that question been asked of me in a quiz!

    One for @Stat Brother’s database!
    Let right be done


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