RexCathedra
Aurea Mediocritas
Based on 20,,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the coming season
The tl;dr version
The way 538.com predict seasons, and games, is covered here: Methodological Notes.
Of particular interest is the example match they use to illustrate single-match predictions - the March 23 game against Liverpool. It's the length of a good-sized magazine article, but I found it very interesting.
Fascinating stuff, and you can check their work, because there are pull-downs at the bottom of the table, so you can see what they projected for each week of the season last year, and how it changes from week to week.
They update weekly, and one of the more interesting things in their model is a measure of match importance, how much, relatively, each side has to play for. Fighting relegation, chasing Europe, on the beach -- all baked in.
It's good to see this kind of high-powered intellectual talent being put to good use, instead of being used by quants in the City to rig LIBOR and what have you.
(Unlike four-Four-Two, the name of the site is the number of electoral votes in a US Presidential election, and not a formation. If it were a formation, the pitch would be crowded, now wouldn't it)
The tl;dr version
- Crystal Palace, 9% chance of relegation, predicted finish 7th, 70 points
- Brighton, 26% chance of relegation, predicted finish 18th, 63 points
The way 538.com predict seasons, and games, is covered here: Methodological Notes.
Of particular interest is the example match they use to illustrate single-match predictions - the March 23 game against Liverpool. It's the length of a good-sized magazine article, but I found it very interesting.
Fascinating stuff, and you can check their work, because there are pull-downs at the bottom of the table, so you can see what they projected for each week of the season last year, and how it changes from week to week.
They update weekly, and one of the more interesting things in their model is a measure of match importance, how much, relatively, each side has to play for. Fighting relegation, chasing Europe, on the beach -- all baked in.
It's good to see this kind of high-powered intellectual talent being put to good use, instead of being used by quants in the City to rig LIBOR and what have you.
(Unlike four-Four-Two, the name of the site is the number of electoral votes in a US Presidential election, and not a formation. If it were a formation, the pitch would be crowded, now wouldn't it)
