[Football] Seagulls to defy the odds....

L

lancyclaret

New member

Jan 10, 2014

566

• Apr 27, 2018

• #1

....with a surprise away win at Turf Moor tomorrow.

The bookies have Burnley as favourites, Merson predicts 2-1 to Clarets, Lawrenson a 2-0 home win, the statistical "WhoScored" 1-0 to Burnley.

The "experts" and pundits have excelled in getting most BFC results wrong this season and I don't see this changing as we have not played well since a 2-1 home win against Everton. We've picked up a lot of points recently against poor teams (West Ham, West Brom, Watford and Stoke) without playing well. And in the 2-1 home win against Leicester, we only played well for 15 mins.

Without our best defender Ben Mee for a 5th game in a row, we won't keep a clean sheet, so Burnley 0 Brighton 1. I'd be relieved (actually pleased) to draw as long as Leicester don't win at Palace.

 

Wrong-Direction

Well-known member

Mar 10, 2013

13,416

• Apr 27, 2018

• #2

1-2 to the good guys

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk

 

Stat Brother

Well-known member

NSC Patron

Jul 11, 2003

73,648

West west west Sussex

• Apr 27, 2018

• #3

lancyclaret said:

Without all our defenders, we will keep a clean sheet, so Burnley 1 Brighton 0. I'd be relieved (actually pleased) to draw as long as Leicester don't win at Palace.

Click to expand...

...

 

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator

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Aug 8, 2005

26,536

• Apr 27, 2018

• #4

I fancy a very dull and turgid 0-0 myself.

 

Titanic

Super Moderator

Helpful Moderator

Jul 5, 2003

39,057

West Sussex

• Apr 27, 2018

• #5

Giraffe said:

I fancy a very dull and turgid 0-0 myself.

Click to expand...

Well worth the 9 hours on the road then!

 

Bozza

You can change this

Helpful Moderator

Jul 4, 2003

55,708

Back in Sussex

• Apr 27, 2018

• #6

I'm amazed that you're not odds on for this.

 

patchamalbion

Well-known member

Feb 26, 2009

6,011

brighton

• Apr 27, 2018

• #7

draw double

Stoke v Liverpool
Burnley v Brighton

£10 = £181

 

L

lancyclaret

New member

Jan 10, 2014

566

• Apr 27, 2018

• Thread starter
• #8

Giraffe said:

I fancy a very dull and turgid 0-0 myself.

Click to expand...

I think it would also suit Dyche & Hughton. Just think of the travel and hotel bills that could have been saved.

I'm doing a Brighton/Leicester double

Do we really want an away match in Kazakhstan or Armenia in the middle of July? (which we would probably lose).

 

Goldstone1976

We Got Calde in!!

Helpful Moderator

NSC Patron

Apr 30, 2013

13,782

Herts

• Apr 27, 2018

• #9

lancyclaret said:

....with a surprise away win at Turf Moor tomorrow.

The bookies have Burnley as favourites, Merson predicts 2-1 to Clarets, Lawrenson a 2-0 home win, the statistical "WhoScored" 1-0 to Burnley.

The "experts" and pundits have excelled in getting most BFC results wrong this season and I don't see this changing as we have not played well since a 2-1 home win against Everton. We've picked up a lot of points recently against poor teams (West Ham, West Brom, Watford and Stoke) without playing well. And in the 2-1 home win against Leicester, we only played well for 15 mins.

Without our best defender Ben Mee for a 5th game in a row, we won't keep a clean sheet, so Burnley 0 Brighton 1. I'd be relieved (actually pleased) to draw as long as Leicester don't win at Palace.

Click to expand...

I’ll take a draw now.

Any suggestions for a decent curry house for tonight, please? Aroma??

 

Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!

Sep 1, 2012

32,165

Valhalla

• Apr 27, 2018

• #10

I'll be *delighted* with a draw v Burnley.

 

neilbard

Hedging up

Oct 8, 2013

6,245

Tyringham

• Apr 27, 2018

• #11

lancyclaret said:

....with a surprise away win at Turf Moor tomorrow.

The bookies have Burnley as favourites, Merson predicts 2-1 to Clarets, Lawrenson a 2-0 home win, the statistical "WhoScored" 1-0 to Burnley.

The "experts" and pundits have excelled in getting most BFC results wrong this season and I don't see this changing as we have not played well since a 2-1 home win against Everton. We've picked up a lot of points recently against poor teams (West Ham, West Brom, Watford and Stoke) without playing well. And in the 2-1 home win against Leicester, we only played well for 15 mins.

Without our best defender Ben Mee for a 5th game in a row, we won't keep a clean sheet, so Burnley 0 Brighton 1. I'd be relieved (actually pleased) to draw as long as Leicester don't win at Palace.

Click to expand...

 

moggy

Well-known member

Oct 15, 2003

5,050

southwick

• Apr 27, 2018

• #12

Gonna wait till the first goal goes in then lump on the draw

 

Easy 10

Brain dead MUG SHEEP

Jul 5, 2003

61,747

Location Location

• Apr 27, 2018

• #13

We're not allowed to score away from home, so 0-0 is the best we can hope for. There's not an Albion fan alive who wouldn't take that right now.

 

Bozza

You can change this

Helpful Moderator

Jul 4, 2003

55,708

Back in Sussex

• Apr 27, 2018

• #14

neilbard said:

View attachment 96431

Click to expand...

That's closer to how I'd see Burnley's chances, although I'd probably still have them just the other side of evens.

Where's that from, out of interest, and what's the methodology in determining "True odds"? Also, is there any historic data charting success of betting where True odds < Actual odds?

 

Stat Brother

Well-known member

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Jul 11, 2003

73,648

West west west Sussex

• Apr 27, 2018

• #15

lancyclaret said:

Do we really want an away match in Kazakhstan or Armenia in the middle of July? (which we would probably lose).

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:

THEN WHAT'S THE POINT?

 

Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster

Jul 5, 2003

72,015

• Apr 27, 2018

• #16

lancyclaret said:

I think it would also suit Dyche & Hughton. Just think of the travel and hotel bills that could have been saved.

I'm doing a Brighton/Leicester double

Do we really want an away match in Kazakhstan or Armenia in the middle of July? (which we would probably lose).

Click to expand...

Can’t see us doing better than a point tbh

There was quite an interesting article in the Argus about Burnley next season

http://www.theargus.co.uk/sport/alb...ival_manager_Dyche_yet_to_face_toughest_test/

 

M

Milano

Well-known member

Aug 15, 2012

3,336

Sussex but not by the sea

• Apr 27, 2018

• #17

Slightly depressing fact is we have failed to score in 10 (TEN) of our 16 away league games to date this season. That is SHIT. Even worse when those don't even include City or Liverpool.
We are going to score tomorrow though. 1-1.

 

D

DavidRyder

Well-known member

Jul 23, 2013

2,885

• Apr 27, 2018

• #18

lancyclaret said:

I think it would also suit Dyche & Hughton. Just think of the travel and hotel bills that could have been saved.

I'm doing a Brighton/Leicester double

Do we really want an away match in Kazakhstan or Armenia in the middle of July? (which we would probably lose).

Click to expand...

The way I look at it, it's competitive matches rather than meaningless friendlies where the whole team is changed at half time. Therefore, more of a competitive edge come the first league game. Plus, wouldn't you like to sight see in Kazakhstan? Is nice!

 

Marshy

Well-known member

Jul 6, 2003

19,716

FRUIT OF THE BLOOM

• Apr 27, 2018

• #19

1-0 home win is nailed on

 

Moshe Gariani

Well-known member

Mar 10, 2005

12,070

• Apr 27, 2018

• #20

Bozza said:

That's closer to how I'd see Burnley's chances, although I'd probably still have them just the other side of evens.

Where's that from, out of interest, and what's the methodology in determining "True odds"? Also, is there any historic data charting success of betting where True odds < Actual odds?

Click to expand...

"True odds" seems to include 4.91% allowance for alien invasion or tsunami...