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[Albion] Comforting Stat(s)



Super Steve Earle

Super Steve Earle

Well-known member
Feb 23, 2009
8,346
North of Brighton
We are 7 points clear of 3rd from bottom Southampton with only 18 left for them to play for.
We are 8 points clear of 2nd bottom Stoke with only 15 left for them to play for.
West Brom are down bar the maths.
Better goal difference than all 3 (so far).
 




Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
63,872
Withdean area
Super Steve Earle said:
We are 7 points clear of 3rd from bottom Southampton with only 18 left for them to play for.
We are 8 points clear of 2nd bottom Stoke with only 15 left for them to play for.
West Brom are down bar the maths.
Better goal difference than all 3 (so far).
Click to expand...

:facepalm: Are you honestly saying that we’re a better position than WBA?
 










Gazwag

Gazwag

5 millionth post poster
Mar 4, 2004
30,130
Bexhill-on-Sea
I prefer the stats that say

Stoke have 1 point from the last five and need 9 points from the next five

Southampton have 2 points from the last six and need 8 from the next six
 


Stato

Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
6,573
I like this measurement that someone has done on Palace's board. A swing-o-meter number, slightly adapted here:

The comparison is between how many points teams below us can still gain from their remaining matches and how many points they need to catch us. The number changes each time we gain or anyone else drops points. When a team gets to zero they can only equal our tally and it's down to goal difference. Should three of them get to a minus number, goal difference doesn't matter and we are mathematically safe:

WBA as the example: 5 games left to play - maximum of 15 points, minus the 14 points they are behind us = a score of 1. Should they fail to win one game, or should we get two points, they'll be in the minus and can't catch us.

Other team's current swing numbers:

Stoke: 7
Southampton: 11
Palace: 11
Huddersfield: 12
Swansea: 15
West Ham: 17

Lose to Palace away on Saturday and their number remains 11 (12-1). Draw and their number drops to 8. Win and their number is 5.

Other remaining games that will definitely reduce the swing numbers of one or more teams currently below us:

West Ham v Stoke
Stoke v Palace
Swansea v Southampton
Palace v WBA
Swansea v Stoke
 
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Acker79

Acker79

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 15, 2008
31,842
Brighton
Stato said:
I like this measurement that someone has done on Palace's board. A swing-o-meter number, slightly adapted here:

The comparison is between how many points teams below us can still gain from their remaining matches and how many points they need to catch us. The number changes each time we gain or anyone else drops points. When a team gets to zero they can only equal our tally and it's down to goal difference. Should three of them get to a minus number, goal difference doesn't matter and we are mathematically safe:

WBA as the example: 5 games left to play - maximum of 15 points, minus the 14 points they are behind us = a score of 1. Should they fail to win one game, or should we get two points, they'll be in the minus and can't catch us.

Other team's current swing numbers:

Stoke: 7
Southampton: 11
Palace: 11
Huddersfield: 12
Swansea: 15
West Ham: 17

Lose to Palace away on Saturday and their number remains 11 (12-1). Draw and their number drops to 8. Win and their number is 5.

Other remaining games that will definitely reduce the swing numbers of one or more teams currently below us:

West Ham v Stoke
Stoke v Palace
Swansea v Southampton
Palace v WBA
Swansea v Stoke
Click to expand...

Seems like a convoluted way to measure how many points needed until x can't catch us.
 




Blue3

Blue3

Well-known member
Jan 27, 2014
5,567
Lancing
Stato said:
I like this measurement that someone has done on Palace's board. A swing-o-meter number, slightly adapted here:

The comparison is between how many points teams below us can still gain from their remaining matches and how many points they need to catch us. The number changes each time we gain or anyone else drops points. When a team gets to zero they can only equal our tally and it's down to goal difference. Should three of them get to a minus number, goal difference doesn't matter and we are mathematically safe:

WBA as the example: 5 games left to play - maximum of 15 points, minus the 14 points they are behind us = a score of 1. Should they fail to win one game, or should we get two points, they'll be in the minus and can't catch us.

Other team's current swing numbers:

Stoke: 7
Southampton: 11
Palace: 11
Huddersfield: 12
Swansea: 15
West Ham: 17

Lose to Palace away on Saturday and their number remains 11 (12-1). Draw and their number drops to 8. Win and their number is 5.

Other remaining games that will definitely reduce the swing numbers of one or more teams currently below us:

West Ham v Stoke
Stoke v Palace
Swansea v Southampton
Palace v WBA
Swansea v Stoke
Click to expand...

I do like this needs a thread of its own
 


Stato

Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
6,573
Acker79 said:
Seems like a convoluted way to measure how many points needed until x can't catch us.
Click to expand...

You could look at it that way, but I like it because it illustrates the gap. Some have been looking negatively at yesterday's result and assuming that we may not get many more points from our last six. This ignores the fact that we have actually increased the gap over Stoke and Southampton this weekend. We are now in the position where, even were we to not pick up another point, those under the line would have to improve their points tallies at a rate above what they have managed over the season in order to catch us.

If they follow their average points collection over the season, Southampton could expect 5-6 points from their last six games, Stoke 4-5 from their last five. This wouldn't take either team to the 35 points that we reached with yesterday's disappointing draw.
 


W

warmleyseagull

Well-known member
Apr 17, 2011
4,210
Beaminster, Dorset
Stato said:
You could look at it that way, but I like it because it illustrates the gap. Some have been looking negatively at yesterday's result and assuming that we may not get many more points from our last six. This ignores the fact that we have actually increased the gap over Stoke and Southampton this weekend. We are now in the position where, even were we to not pick up another point, those under the line would have to improve their points tallies at a rate above what they have managed over the season in order to catch us.

If they follow their average points collection over the season, Southampton could expect 5-6 points from their last six games, Stoke 4-5 from their last five. This wouldn't take either team to the 35 points that we reached with yesterday's disappointing draw.
Click to expand...

Yes, but Stoke and Southampton were playing top 6. Problem with all these statto threads is that you need to weight for games against top 6, and it then becomes fiendishly difficult. I think you can only look at our run-in and think it will be amazing if we get more than 4 points, very satisfactory if 2-3 and 0 is certainly on as we are crap away and Spurs and Man U at home are challenging to say least. Frankly, I think we have to hope 35 will be OK.
 




Stato

Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
6,573
warmleyseagull said:
Yes, but Stoke and Southampton were playing top 6. Problem with all these statto threads is that you need to weight for games against top 6, and it then becomes fiendishly difficult. I think you can only look at our run-in and think it will be amazing if we get more than 4 points, very satisfactory if 2-3 and 0 is certainly on as we are crap away and Spurs and Man U at home are challenging to say least. Frankly, I think we have to hope 35 will be OK.
Click to expand...

IT doesn't really become fiendishly difficult, you just have to split the league into three and look at the points gained against each section.

This kind of weighting actually suggests that it is even less likely that Southampton will reach 35 points from their remaining games.

Southampton average 1.38 points against other teams in the bottom 8;
They average 0.7 points against teams currently between 7th and 12th
They average 0.25 points from matches against the top six.

Their remaining six games are one against a team from the bottom 8, three against the middle six and two against the top six.
If they do not improve upon their average points take from each of these groups, they can expect approx: 1.38 + 2.1 + 0.5: Just over 4 points.

Stats don't prove anything about the future, but they do illustrate the measure of improvement needed. In this case, despite their improved performances, Stoke and Southampton both fell a point further away from safety. In terms related to us, before this weekend, if both had continued picking up points at the same rate per game and we didn't get a single point more, they would have overtaken us. After this weekend, they will now have to improve on their average return per game in order to catch our current points total.
 
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Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,145
Goldstone
Stato said:
You could look at it that way, but I like it because it illustrates the gap. Some have been looking negatively at yesterday's result and assuming that we may not get many more points from our last six. This ignores the fact that we have actually increased the gap over Stoke and Southampton this weekend.
Click to expand...
We know that we've increased the gap, but they've just played Spurs and Arsenal, whilst we had our last home game against a side outside the top 4.

We are now in the position where, even were we to not pick up another point, those under the line would have to improve their points tallies at a rate above what they have managed over the season in order to catch us.
Click to expand...
But since they've been poor up until now, increasing their rate of gaining points is not a big ask. Doing far better than your average is also possible over just a few games. Of course we'd have taken this position at the start, but it's not done yet, and we've got the most ridiculous run in.
 


W

warmleyseagull

Well-known member
Apr 17, 2011
4,210
Beaminster, Dorset
Stato said:
IT doesn't really become fiendishly difficult, you just have to split the league into three and look at the points gained against each section.

This kind of weighting actually suggests that it is even less likely that Southampton will reach 35 points from their remaining games.

Southampton average 1.38 points against other teams in the bottom 8;
They average 0.7 points against teams currently between 7th and 12th
They average 0.25 points from matches against the top six.

Their remaining six games are one against a team from the bottom 8, three against the middle six and two against the top six.
If they do not improve upon their average points take from each of these groups, they can expect approx: 1.38 + 2.1 + 0.5: Just over 4 points.

Stats don't prove anything about the future, but they do illustrate the measure of improvement needed. In this case, despite their improved performances, Stoke and Southampton both fell a point further away from safety. In terms related to us, before this weekend, if both had continued picking up points at the same rate per game and we didn't get a single point more, they would have overtaken us. After this weekend, they will now have to improve on their average return per game in order to catch our current points total.
Click to expand...

Surely the whole point of sport is that anticipating outcomes based on previous average outcomes is pointless because it doesn't work like that?
 


Stato

Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
6,573
warmleyseagull said:
Surely the whole point of sport is that anticipating outcomes based on previous average outcomes is pointless because it doesn't work like that?
Click to expand...

Tell that to the sports gambling billionaire who owns our club. Like practicing penalty shoot outs, it doesn't guarantee success, but, in terms of prediction, it can give an advantage.
 




PILTDOWN MAN

PILTDOWN MAN

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 15, 2004
18,685
Hurst Green
The clubs below us have only achieved 19 points in the last 35 games combined the bottom three 4 in 15. We're 20/1 to go down for a reason.
 


L

LVGull

New member
May 13, 2016
1,959
Super Steve Earle said:
We are 7 points clear of 3rd from bottom Southampton with only 18 left for them to play for.
We are 8 points clear of 2nd bottom Stoke with only 15 left for them to play for.
West Brom are down bar the maths.
Better goal difference than all 3 (so far).
Click to expand...

What’s your point?
 


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