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  1. #1

    1% chance of relegation


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    Interesting article by statistician Daniel Finkelstein in The Times today. Start of the season we were 25% chance of relegation, now down to 1%.

    He also explores of Hughton it a good manager (spolier: he is) and discusses how we have relied so heavily on our defence since 2011 but that this is changing under CH.

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    • #2
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      Albion and Hughton under the Fink Tank scrutiny in Times


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      When live games finish on TV I always listen carefully, in case the commentator says something that cries out to be tested. Players are hugging each other and the pundits are nattering, and some pretty wild things are sometimes said.

      As Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal left the pitch last weekend, most of the talk was about Arsène Wenger and has been said before. But I pricked up my ears when I heard talk about Chris Hughton being an excellent manager and this shaping up to be a good season for his side. Is that true?

      Henry Stott, Mark Latham and Dinesh Vatvani have been taking a look.

      Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

      The gap is still there, even if smaller now, but something is definitely changing under Hughton. They are moving from high possession to a counterattack- ing style with less possession but increasing average pass length, a huge increase in aerial play, more attacking directness and less width.

      Being better in defence than attack and a shift to this greater directness are a Hughton signature, as he has evolved the teams he has managed in pretty much the same direction each time.

      And the idea that he is a good manager? Yes, that is consistent with the data. In every full season he has managed a side, he has improved them. There is one exception (Norwich City in 2013-14) but this was only a 2 per cent drop after a 5 per cent rise the season before. You would expect some variation.
      Hughton has left every club he has managed stronger than he found it, and most considerably stronger.

      How is he doing with Brighton this season? When the campaign started there was a 25 per cent chance they would go down. Now there is a little over a 1 per cent chance. Their expected finishing position was 16th when we ran the model before the first ball was kicked. Now they are expected to finish 12th.

      Their play in the summer and autumn was the best from Brighton in ten years of the Fink Tank, and although they have dropped off a bit now they should still be safe.
    • #3
      JCB Medwayseagull's Avatar
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      What is the " dropped of a bit now " ? That is the last thing the vast majority would say about our season so far.
      If we lived in a perfect place nobody would vote Tory.
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      Quote Originally Posted by Medwayseagull View Post
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      What is the " dropped of a bit now " ? That is the last thing the vast majority would say about our season so far.
      Think he means dropped off from where we were prior to the 1 win in 14 run of matches, not the best way to express it.
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      Quote Originally Posted by Couldn't Be Hyypia View Post
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      Interesting article by statistician Daniel Finkelstein in The Times today. Start of the season we were 25% chance of relegation, now down to 1%.

      He also explores of Hughton it a good manager (spolier: he is) and discusses how we have relied so heavily on our defence since 2011 but that this is changing under CH.
      Have just copied and pasted article in another thread.
    • #6
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      Quote Originally Posted by warmleyseagull View Post
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      Think he means dropped off from where we were prior to the 1 win in 14 run of matches, not the best way to express it.
      You are probably right but he should have made it clearer!
      We're going up, we're going to win the Cup, for Sussex by the Sea.
    • #7
      Numpty Thunder Bolt's Avatar
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      Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

      A bottom of League Two attack in 2011? Murray scored 23, Barnes scored 20, along with Wood, Sandaza, Bennett and others. How the heck is that a bottom of League Two attack?
      Quote Originally Posted by brighton bluenose View Post
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      NSC at its very best ~ a post based on assumption on a matter the poster hasn't got a clue about!!
      The true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members. Mahatma Gandhi
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      Members PILTDOWN MAN's Avatar
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      Finking appears to be limited in that article
      “FROM the towns all Inns have been driven: from the villages most. . . . Change your hearts or you will lose your Inns and you will deserve to have lost them. But when you have lost your Inns drown your empty selves, for you will have lost the last of England.”
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      Members Barham's tash's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Thunder Bolt View Post
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      Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

      A bottom of League Two attack in 2011? Murray scored 23, Barnes scored 20, along with Wood, Sandaza, Bennett and others. How the heck is that a bottom of League Two attack?
      It’s purely statistical analysis and when comparing apples with apples would hold true whereas my and your romantic view of the players we had and what they did make it seem like a bloody stupid statistic. Meh.


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    • #10
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      Quote Originally Posted by warmleyseagull View Post
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      When live games finish on TV I always listen carefully, in case the commentator says something that cries out to be tested. Players are hugging each other and the pundits are nattering, and some pretty wild things are sometimes said.

      As Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal left the pitch last weekend, most of the talk was about Arsène Wenger and has been said before. But I pricked up my ears when I heard talk about Chris Hughton being an excellent manager and this shaping up to be a good season for his side. Is that true?

      Henry Stott, Mark Latham and Dinesh Vatvani have been taking a look.

      Brighton have long been a defensive side. In fact at one point, when leaving League One for the Championship in 2011, they had a Premier League defence (18th in our all-team ranking) but a bottom-of-League Two attack (a remarkable 90th).

      The gap is still there, even if smaller now, but something is definitely changing under Hughton. They are moving from high possession to a counterattack- ing style with less possession but increasing average pass length, a huge increase in aerial play, more attacking directness and less width.

      Being better in defence than attack and a shift to this greater directness are a Hughton signature, as he has evolved the teams he has managed in pretty much the same direction each time.

      And the idea that he is a good manager? Yes, that is consistent with the data. In every full season he has managed a side, he has improved them. There is one exception (Norwich City in 2013-14) but this was only a 2 per cent drop after a 5 per cent rise the season before. You would expect some variation.
      Hughton has left every club he has managed stronger than he found it, and most considerably stronger.

      How is he doing with Brighton this season? When the campaign started there was a 25 per cent chance they would go down. Now there is a little over a 1 per cent chance. Their expected finishing position was 16th when we ran the model before the first ball was kicked. Now they are expected to finish 12th.

      Their play in the summer and autumn was the best from Brighton in ten years of the Fink Tank, and although they have dropped off a bit now they should still be safe.
      at the risk of being shot down in flames.....do you actually go to games , or do you rely solely on what pundits say ?

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