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[Football] Expected Goals/Goals Against/Goal Difference



TheBigUnit

Active member
Apr 4, 2012
634
London
Saw the stat below earlier this evening, can anybody please explain what exactly these three terms mea Expected Goals/Goals Against/Goal Difference?

BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION

Position: 14th
Points: 28
Goals For: 22
Goals Against: 36
Goal Difference: -14
Expected Goals: 24.1
Expected Goals Against: 36.18
Expected Goals Difference: -12.08

Need to carry on doing this to survive:

They have the best defence in the bottom half, having only conceded 36 goals this season. Their expected goals against of 36.18 is only bettered by West Bromwich Albion out of the teams in relegation trouble too. More often than not, the team that concedes the most goals is relegated, so the defensive qualities Chris Hughton has built will be crucial in ensuring the Seagulls are a Premier League side next season.

Need to work on this to stay up:

Despite the dominance of Shane Duffy and Lewis Dunk in their own box, the duo haven’t turned their aerial dominance into a proper attacking threat at the other end. Brighton have just three goals from set pieces this season. As the Seagulls struggle in front of goal, with just 22 goals, exploiting set pieces could be a way forward.
 


Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
10,871
Crawley
Expected goals is the goals we should have scored from the chances we have had. Expected goals against is the number of goals we should have conceded from the chances we have allowed the opposition. I will let you work out what the difference is.
 




Baldseagull

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2012
10,871
Crawley
These figures surprise me, as most of the time I've seen expected goals shown on MOTD we've done better than they expected, not worse.

It's all the .3 expected goals when we have scored none, added up, we have had 13 games without scoring at all
 



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