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[Albion] What will be the Magic number of points to survive in the PL?



Seagull Mags

New member
Aug 18, 2016
101
Experts say 40 points usually guarantee's survival in the PL. However I recalled West Ham getting relegated on 42 points so done a research and came up with this interesting article:

http://www.skysports.com/football/n...ation-battle-do-you-need-40-points-to-stay-up

In summary:
- The average number of points to survive since 95/96 season is 37 Points
- Only 3 teams have finished in the bottom 3 with 40 points or more (Sunderland (40), Bolton (40) and West Ham (42))
- West Ham's 42 points is the most points gained whilst getting relegated
- Derby County's 11 Points is the Lowest points gained (Which we have already surpassed, UTA!)

Based on how tight this season is going, especially in the bottom half I would think the average of 37 points could be enough? Thoughts?
 






Berty23

Well-known member
Jun 26, 2012
3,167
This year the top 6 are better than the rest who are all much of a muchness. This means that we could end up with a big gap to seventh then loads of teams relatively close. It is not actually that unlikely that after 11 games all but one team will have at least 10 points.

My guess is that at least 40 points will be needed because most teams will go on some sort of run this year.
 


LlcoolJ

Mama said knock you out.
Oct 14, 2009
12,982
Sheffield
This year the top 6 are better than the rest who are all much of a muchness. This means that we could end up with a big gap to seventh then loads of teams relatively close. It is not actually that unlikely that after 11 games all but one team will have at least 10 points.

My guess is that at least 40 points will be needed because most teams will go on some sort of run this year.

:lolol:
 




Easy 10

Brain dead MUG SHEEP
Jul 5, 2003
61,674
Location Location
Last year, the team that finished 8th finished on 46 points (Soton), the team in 17th finished on 40 (Watford), so just a 6 point gap covering 10 teams, half the division. Hull finished 18th on 34 points. So they finished the same number of points shy of safety as the team they were chasing was from 8th spot.

It'll be the same this year. The top 6-7 will be over the hills and far away. The rest of us will be in a very broad but tight group. Fine margins, but from what we've seen so far, I think we've got more than enough about us to be on the right side of the line come May.
 


Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 24, 2007
10,165
Arundel
We should continue to work on the simple calculation - Survival is points + 10% of games played = survival 38 games, plus 3.8 points = 42 needed
 


scamander

New member
Aug 9, 2011
596
Often they list the teams who finished 17th and thus safe along with their points and state these are the number needed. But in order to finish 17th you only need to be a point ahead of 18th, and this can skew things.

Take last season, Watford finished 17th on 40 points, but 35 points would have seen them safe and in the same position. If you start looking at stats it is worth bearing in mind as using the points tally of the team in 17th isn't always the minimum points required for safety.
 






kevo

Well-known member
Mar 8, 2008
9,085
This year the top 6 are better than the rest who are all much of a muchness. This means that we could end up with a big gap to seventh then loads of teams relatively close. It is not actually that unlikely that after 11 games all but one team will have at least 10 points.

My guess is that at least 40 points will be needed because most teams will go on some sort of run this year.

Surely if the top six are much better this season, this means the teams below will get very little change out of them, which in turn means overall points totals for the other 14 will be lower. Doesn't this therefore imply the number of points needed to survive will also be lower? I reckon something like 36 would be enough.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,989
Goldstone
Often they list the teams who finished 17th and thus safe along with their points and state these are the number needed. But in order to finish 17th you only need to be a point ahead of 18th, and this can skew things.
Here we go again. We covered this for how many points required for auto promotion, was it the number or points the 2nd place team got, or one more point than the 3rd team got - I declared (ikr) that the best guide was the average of the two. The same would then be the case for relegation, average the points of 17th and 18th place for the best approximation of points needed.
 




Exile

Objective but passionate
Aug 10, 2014
2,367
Here we go again. We covered this for how many points required for auto promotion, was it the number or points the 2nd place team got, or one more point than the 3rd team got - I declared (ikr) that the best guide was the average of the two. The same would then be the case for relegation, average the points of 17th and 18th place for the best approximation of points needed.

Well, you were clearly wrong, then :shrug:

If 18th gets 38 points and 17th 44 points, the required figure was 39 (ignoring GD), not the average of 41.
 
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Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,989
Goldstone
Surely if the top six are much better this season, this means the teams below will get very little change out of them, which in turn means overall points totals for the other 14 will be lower. Doesn't this therefore imply the number of points needed to survive will also be lower?
Yes it would. However, the top 6 teams have been better than the rest for some time now, so I'm not sure the others will get many less points. What I think is significant is that I don't think there'll be any supershit teams this year (at the levels of Sunderland, Hull and Middlesbrough last year) - of course Palace have been gone beyond supershit so far, but they won't be that bad for the rest of the season. Everton et al won't continue to be as bad either, so the bottom clubs should take more points from mid-table than they did last year, meaning it could be a slightly lower total, fought out between several teams.
 








Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
31,730
Brighton
Well, you were clearly wrong, then :shrug:

If 17th gets 38 points and 18th 44 points, the required figure was 39 (ignoring GD), not the average of 41.

Uh oh. Never tell Triggaaar he's wrong.
 








Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,989
Goldstone
Obviously, the other way round. Go on then, I'm all ears.
Ok, from last year's final table:

Watford 40 points
Hull 34 points
Middlesbrough 28 points
Sunderland 24 points

How many points did Middlesbrough need to survive? Was it just 35, 1 more than 18th? No. But that's all Watford needed, and all any team above them needed.
But what if Watford only got 35 points - who got the points that they didn't get? If it was Hull, suddenly 35 isn't enough for Watford either.
So it's more complicated than 1 more than 18th, or whatever 17th got. I believe the best approximation is an average of the two.
 


Normski1989

Well-known member
Apr 15, 2015
751
Hove
How many do we need to win the league?
 



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