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  1. #1
    You can change this Bozza's Avatar
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    Have we been lucky? (xG stat geekery)


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    I've been getting more interested in the xG (eXpected Goals) stat that I've never really noticed until this season - maybe another feature of Premier League life.

    Expected Goals is the number of goals a team (or teams) would expect to score in a match. This is determined by assigning a value to shots on goal, the number of shots, shot location, the in-game situation and the proximity of opposition defenders.

    So, how are we doing on xG and xGA (eXpected Goals Against) after 7 games?

    Well, on xG we are the worst performing side in the Premier League. I guess that simply means we are creating the least chances, or least decent chances.

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    On xGA we are approximately where we are in the actual league table thus far, and with a few teams closely grouped, it would be possible to move up quite quickly.

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    And how would this convert to the league itself? We'd be bottom of the pile, and have Palace laughing at us.

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    So, have we been lucky to earn the results and points that we have? My feeling is 'no'. So maybe xG is just a load of shit. Thoughts?

    (Data sourced from >>> https://understat.com/league/EPL)

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    • #2
      Test your smoke alarm Bry Nylon's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
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      xG is just a load of shit.
      That, I feel, is a fair summary.
    • #3
      Longing for retirement. AmexRuislip's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
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      Thoughts
      Respect for all the info, but it looks like somebody from the Matrix has created it
    • #4
      You can change this Bozza's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by AmexRuislip View Post
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      Respect for all the info, but it looks like somebody from the Matrix has created it
      I like the theory.

      For example: penalties. Between 2011/12 and 2015/16 there were 443 penalties in the Premier League and of those 347 were scored - meaning that on average 78.3% of penalties resulted in a goal. A penalty is therefore assigned an expected goal value of 0.783.

      We need more penalties, BTW.
    • #5
      Longing for retirement. AmexRuislip's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
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      I like the theory.

      For example: penalties. Between 2011/12 and 2015/16 there were 443 penalties in the Premier League and of those 347 were scored - meaning that on average 78.3% of penalties resulted in a goal. A penalty is therefore assigned an expected goal value of 0.783.

      We need more penalties, BTW.
      I think I'm either being given a lesson in stats or being told to shut my big trap
      Penalties would be a bonus
    • #6
      Members GreersElbow's Avatar
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      I think it’s quite a load of shit, far too many variables at play to determine what an expected value is. How much weight is given to the selected factors etc
      Quote Originally Posted by BensGrandad View Post
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      As I said I dont know just assumed
    • #7
      VERY part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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      I remember seeing an article about just this somewhere and the conclusion was that it is likely to be used more and more by teams assessing individual players ability as well as opposition. The view of this article was also that gamblers, such as Tony Bloom, put an awful lot of weight on such stats.
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      VERY part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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      Interestingly the idea is not hat far removed from what Graham Taylor used to form the tactics that took Watford from the fourth division to second in the first division.
    • #9
      Wanna balloon? Johnny RoastBeef's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Giraffe View Post
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      I remember seeing an article about just this somewhere and the conclusion was that it is likely to be used more and more by teams assessing individual players ability as well as opposition. The view of this article was also that gamblers, such as Tony Bloom, put an awful lot of weight on such stats.
      Looking at last seasons premier league player xG stats, Josh King at Bournemouth scored highly. Looks good on paper and from what I saw in the cup match, he would definitely be a player I would be happy for us to target.

      As for the xG ranking teams, there doesn't appear to be a clear pattern to validate its efficacy.
      "Johnny RoastBeef had to keep them all tied up and away from the alarms"
    • #10

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      It's easy to dismiss but most professional gamblers use this (those that follow football anyway) as thier main basis to beat the market. They make a livng from it so there is lots in it. That said, week after week Reading outperformed the stats last year and they never reverted to mean like the were expected to. West Brom score loads more from set pieces than other teams (and Stoke before) and thier are countless outliers over time.

      The key is understanding if this is a problem. I'm pretty sure given Blooms penchant for stats that Hypia wasn't sacked sooner (alright, he resigned) as the numbers said we were unlucky and due to pick up. In this case, it's the opposite. The stats might say we are in trouble, my eyes tell me this not the case.

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