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Will the points needed for survival be well below 40 points this season?



Paris

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2010
4,068
13th district
With three teams yet to register any points this season I get the feeling it could be one of those seasons where the team finishing 17th stays up with 34/35 points. Seem to recall when Southampton, Palace and Norwich went down and WBA stayed up by the skin of their teeth in May 2005 the points total was pretty low(34?).
 


Husty

Mooderator
Oct 18, 2008
11,973
With three teams yet to register any points this season I get the feeling it could be one of those seasons where the team finishing 17th stays up with 34/35 points. Seem to recall when Southampton, Palace and Norwich went down and WBA stayed up by the skin of their teeth in May 2005 the points total was pretty low(34?).

Sign no strikers and it won't matter, we won't get above 20.
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,992
Goldstone
With three teams yet to register any points this season I get the feeling it could be one of those seasons where the team finishing 17th stays up with 34/35 points.
I was thinking the opposite. The teams without points will turn it around, the favourites to go down are sitting on 7 points already.
 








perseus

Broad Blue & White stripe
Jul 5, 2003
23,454
Sūþseaxna
Poll? My reckoning a team will go down on 37 points and I had this as Burnley with Swansea and Watford . Watford do not look so likely now.
 






Lincoln Imp

Well-known member
Feb 2, 2009
5,964
My assumption has been that we need to get three points out of six from the 12 also-rans plus the odd bonus point here and there from the front runners.
 


Paris

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2010
4,068
13th district




scamander

New member
Aug 9, 2011
596
The points for being safe is really just one more than 18th place. In the 09/10 season West Ham finished 17th and 5 points clear of the team in 18th position. On that premise (i.e. just finishing a point ahead of 18th as 'safe') the last few years look a bit different:

16/17 - 35 points
15/16 - 38
14/15 - 36
13/14 - 34
12/13 - 37
11/12 - 37
10/11 - 40
09/10 - 31
 




Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Aug 25, 2011
63,407
Withdean area
With three teams yet to register any points this season I get the feeling it could be one of those seasons where the team finishing 17th stays up with 34/35 points. Seem to recall when Southampton, Palace and Norwich went down and WBA stayed up by the skin of their teeth in May 2005 the points total was pretty low(34?).

No.

Burnley and Hudd already grabbing unlikely wins.

Brighton 25, plus Palace and one other to go down in the late 30's.

UNLESS, Origi or Zohore sign for us this week.
 




warmleyseagull

Well-known member
Apr 17, 2011
4,201
Beaminster, Dorset
In simple terms, there are 26 winnable games, and 12 against ManU/C, Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool that you just hope we can squeeze 4/5 points from.

Record in 5 winnable games is respectable W2 D1 L2; continue that and gain a few points from top 6 and we shall be around 40 points, which should be plenty.
 


moggy

Well-known member
Oct 15, 2003
5,050
southwick
So how many more points do you think we need.
Still think we need 40
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,992
Goldstone
So how many more points do you think we need.
9 or 10. 36 or 37 is about what we should need. 2 wins and 3 or 4 draws.

Average number of points required to avoid the drop over the last 15 seasons is 36.6 (just trust me on that). And currently there are 4 teams 2 points behind a point per game.
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,110
Surrey
It'll be a low total. Bournemouth have a 2% chance of relegation according to the odds and statistic bods, yet they are only 4 PTS better off than us.

The fact is that with only 12 to play, 3 or 4 point cushions are not insignificant, not least because of the number of clubs in between the bottom 3 and the teams 4 points clear.
 




GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,477
Gloucester
I am sublimely confident, as I was at the start of the season, that if we get 40 points, we'll stay up. That's as far as I'm going with any predictions!
 


Raleigh Chopper

New member
Sep 1, 2011
12,054
Plymouth
I would have thought so, it's bizzare this season, no team at the bottom well adrift, next 2 well in touch with so many above.
Luckily for us our poor run of results has not done too much damage, in a lot of seasons we would have probably been in the bottom 3 with a gap to the 4th bottom.
Let's hope we can keep picking up points from these next important games and a few surprise points too.
Impossible to predict who will be in the bottom 3 at the moment.
 



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