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  1. #1
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    Stats on promoted teams from championship


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    Looks like someone has put a lot of work into this, will be of interest to those that like stats.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comm...tm_name=soccer

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    • #2
      5 millionth post poster Gazwag's Avatar
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      Lost interest when I read "in 21 years of play off history" as I know I went to the play off final 26 years ago.
    • #3
      The Disowned Masses
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      Next week's Championship Playoff final will be the 22nd (since the PL became 20 teams), and will be contested between Premier League virgins Huddersfield, and old faeces (that’s right you pieces of shit), Reading who have had the fortune of being promoted as champions in 2005-06 and 2011-12.
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    • #4
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      For those that can't be bothered to go through it all

      What does this mean for the 2016/17 promoted clubs?

      Newcastle are in a strong position, and history/form suggests that they will go on and gain a foothold in the PL. There is only a small chance they will be relegated based on their league finish, Total Goal scored, % of team goals scored by top scorer, and given their history as a PL side. Make no mistake, this is a very good Newcastle side, who should go on and become a fully fledged PL outfit over the next few years.

      Brighton are well positioned to make a really good go at staying in the PL beyond 1 year. Yes they are a first time visitor, but first timers can go on to establish in the PL. Generally Runners up perform similarly to Champions, so given that this Brighton side matched the previous best tally achieved by a Runner Up, and were only a point behind Newcastle, the signs are there that this is a decent team. They were reliant on Glenn Murray more than Newcastle relied on Gayle, but not enough to make them one dimensional. Glenn Murray's age is a concern, but he done the business for Palace when landed in the PL in 13/14.

      Reading and Huddersfield are both in for a whole lot of pain, whoever goes up. Neither side have a strong Goal Difference which suggests that they will struggle to pick up many points next year. History does not favour teams from the playoffs either, and with Reading holding the worst defence in the history of promoted teams, I would not bet against them going straight back down. Alarmingly Huddersfield have not scored anywhere near enough goals to make them look anything like staying longer than 1 year in the PL. Neither side have scored enough goals, and this is a big worry. It is possible if Huddersfield win promotion, they could go down with a record low points total. Whoever goes up, I would say, make an almost irrefutable case for coming straight back down.

      So in summary, the Playoffs, although exciting, more often than not provide the Premier League with fodder. Good luck to the Playoff finalists next week. You both are sure as **** gonna need it.

      TLDR:
      1. Points are not the only indicator of how successful promoted teams are/will be in the PL.
      2. Teams who score lots of goals, but are not overly reliant on 1 striker tend to do very well in the PL.
      3. Teams who concede a lot of goals in the Championship do badly in the PL.
      4. Teams with strong Championship defences are able to survive in the PL in the Short Term but do not stay for long if they cannot score.
      5. Teams that win the Championship are more likely to not only survive in the PL, but also to go on and prosper.
      6. Playoff Teams are more likely to be relegated at the first attempt and are much less likely to go on and have a prolonged stay in the PL.
      7. Newcastle have a VERY strong chance of staying up. They are well positoned to go on and become an established PL side.
      8. Brighton have a good chance of staying up next year and are also in with a good chance of becoming an established PL side.
      9. Reading and Huddersfield are both well and truly ****ed.
      Really interesting breakdown, and highly encouraging for us I would say.
      "Do what you do, stay as you are, let's keep having fun." Sam Baldock
    • #5
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      Quote Originally Posted by Papa Lazarou View Post
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      Not a fan then
      He is a Fulham fan, so not likely...
    • #6

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      When was the last time all three promoted clubs stayed up (if ever)?
    • #7
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      Quote Originally Posted by Greg Bobkin View Post
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      When was the last time all three promoted clubs stayed up (if ever)?
      It's happened twice:

      The three Premier League relegation places have been filled by at least one newly promoted club in all but two of the 21 seasons since its introduction, and in the 1997–98 season all three clubs (Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace) were relegated. The only exceptions, in which all three teams survived, were the 2001–02 and 2011–12 seasons. In the former season, the teams were Fulham, Blackburn Rovers and Bolton Wanderers; Blackburn and Bolton were eventually relegated in 2011–12, and Fulham in 2013–14. The teams in the latter season were Queens Park Rangers, Norwich City and Swansea City; QPR was relegated the following season and Norwich in 2013–14, while Swansea are still competing in the Premier League.
    • #8
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      Interesting, will give that a thorough read through later. This bit did make me chuckle though:

      Who are the promotion kings?

      Sunderland have won the league 4 times since the inception of the playoffs. Watch out next year lol. Newcastle have just secured their second Championship Title. Last time they hung around in the PL for a while... Reading also have 2 titles, including the win in 05-06 which saw them collect the MOST amount of points in a Championship Season (During the Playoff Age) with 106. They hold secured the greatest Goal Difference in a single season with +67.


      Which just says to me that Sunderland are also relegation experts.
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    • #9
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      This is broadly encouraging, and supports a few of my instinctive thoughts:

      - It is good that either Reading or Huddersfield will win POs as the winner will almost certainly fill one relegation place - encouraging for us;
      - GS are more important than GD as Boro have found - not encouraging, 74 GS is not great ;
      - Good to have one outstanding goalscorer from previous season with plenty of support - encouraging as long as Muzza can perform;
      - no material difference between finishing 1st or 2nd - encouraging

      I did a much more limited analysis for the three successful teams from last two seasons, and included a stat that this analysis doesnt: % points won away.

      Click image for larger version. 

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      The away points percentage is slightly lower for us than others, but not materially so. My worry would be GS, way below Watford and Bournemouth. PG will add attacking MF option but we clearly need at least one more offensive option. I also think we have to do better from dead ball situations. Pulis has got WBA where they are on the back of that and we need to learn. Seems like PG will offer a delivery option, would love to see JS prosper too.
    • #10
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      Quote Originally Posted by Gazwag View Post
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      Lost interest when I read "in 21 years of play off history" as I know I went to the play off final 26 years ago.
      Thought he qualified that as to relating to when the PL went down to 20 clubs.

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