Trump

knocky1 · Oct 29, 2020

beorhthelm said:
good consolidated polling on wikipedia.

looks like as things stand, even if Trump wins the likes of Texas, Florida, North Carolina, he doesnt have enough to win. the fact Texas is even in that sentence is indicator he's not doing well.

I like that map even if it is based on the fake polls. I got the electoral college was ‘winner takes all’ and now find Nebraska and Maine use the congressional district method. Splitting between winner takes all and district winners. No wonder Trump will have difficulty understanding the result.

Grombleton · Oct 29, 2020

peterward said:
Florida is not in the bag and many demographics are pulling towards Biden - North Carolina is almost tied with Biden up one point, it could go either way but Arizona...... nah, after his insults at hugely respected Arizona War Veteran and Former Senator John McCain, hes totally lost the veterans and the the elderly voters there.

Dream on.

Red Wave my arse

He's in his own echo chamber. You won't get any sense out of him. Like Trump - can do a soundbite but never backs things up

Tyrone Biggums · Oct 29, 2020

peterward said:
.
Like I said, its the most important election in our life time. US Democracy is genuinely at stake.

You're being very melodramatic.

In 2015, James Risen, then a reporter at The New York Times, called the Obama administration “the greatest enemy of press freedom in a generation.”

In 2017, in Obama’s last days, The San Diego Union-Tribune Editorial Board echoed the criticism from Downie and Risen and called Obama’s administration “the least transparent and the most antagonistic toward the media since the Nixon administration.” In a nuanced analysis of his eight years, we wrote, “So much for Obama’s promise to lead ‘the most transparent administration in history.’”

Alex Gibney is a left-wing filmmaker described by the left-wing magazine Esquire as “the most important documentarian of our time.” He directed the documentary “We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks.”

As to Obama’s treatment of whistleblowers and journalists who report their disclosures, Gibney said: “Let’s be honest and say that the Obama administration is the most aggressive prosecutor of leaks in American history. And they’re going after leakers and, in a collateral way, after journalists, in a way that is more aggressive than anything that has ever been seen in our history.”

See this isn't anything new, it's just a continuation of when Biden was VP. It won't stop if Biden gets into power, especially with Harris who loves prosecuting people as his offsider.

Grombleton · Oct 29, 2020

[tweet]1321641934419599360[/tweet]

Is this the US version of 'my dog ate my homework'?

These potentially game-changing documents...and no-one bothered to take a copy? **** me they're thick.

highflyer · Oct 29, 2020

Stat Brother said:
Which is what I've been saying on this thread (and now Trumpy) for a couple of weeks.
Explaining how it's going to happen and why we have Mitch McConnell to 'thank'.

Obviously the beauty in all of this is that Trump has already voted early.

I don't doubt there's some planning and plotting going on. And I don't doubt some further dirty tricks are still to be played. The Republicans are not blind to the polling and will be considering options if things are close or slightly in their favour on the night, before the mail in/early votes are added in (which looks like the best possible scenario for them at the moment). So let's hope there's enough clarity in the early results that they can't credibly claim victory early.

Whatever happens there will be 'noise'. But in general Trump, and his racist supporters, have always been better at making noise than taking action. Hilary hasn't been locked up, the wall hasn't been built and Mexico didn't pay. He talks the talk but...

That all makes me think that, as long as the results are sufficiently clear against him, he'll go. Not quietly, but he'll go.

If it is genuinely close, and it still could be, then I have little doubt he digs in and stays.

A1X · Oct 29, 2020

In terms of Trump winning, Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight, respected poll aggregator and forecaster) reckons he has a chance somewhere between 1 in 6 and 1 in 10 of winning the election.

The key state is likely to be Pennsylvania (currently +5 Biden in the polls). If Biden doesn't win it, his chances of winning the election drop to 30% (although he has other routes to 270 electoral college votes, especially if he can flip the likes of Georgia or Arizona). If Trump doesn't win it, his chances of winning the election drop to 2%. A 5 point lead might look healthy but it's just outside the margin of error.

Gwylan · Oct 29, 2020

A1X said:
A 5 point lead might look healthy but it's just outside the margin of error.

Yeah, I'd be looking at a lead of more than 7 percent before I'd say that state looks safe. I think that, right now, Wisconsin and Michigan are states that could definitely swing to Biden but all others are in play - no matter how big a lead Biden has nationally.

A1X · Oct 29, 2020

You can have a play with the possibilities of various outcomes here

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

Hugo Rune · Oct 29, 2020

You just have to hope that there is a surge in voting from folk of colour, from educated folk, from young folk and from Women folk and that it will outweigh the 2016 surge in votes (if it reappears in 2020) from ignorant, racist, selfish and stupid folk in the swing States.

Tyrone Biggums · Oct 29, 2020

Hugo Rune said:
You just have to hope that there is a surge in voting from folk of colour, from educated folk, from young folk and from Women folk and that it will outweigh the 2016 surge in votes (if it reappears in 2020) from ignorant, racist, selfish and stupid folk in the swing States.

You are Hilary Clinton and I claim my five pounds.

bhafc99 · Oct 29, 2020

As Spence would say, here’s more fake BS lies from the biased lamestream media, ignoring the true Red Wave that his own expert analysis has identified. The Economist being a poxy commie-agenda-driven sham of a fake publication with no real credibility, obviously.

“The Economist have updated their modelling prediction of Tuesday’s election. They are now saying that Joe Biden has a 96% chance of winning the electoral college, and a more than 99% chance of winning the popular vote.

They put the possible range of Biden’s number of electoral college votes as between 254 to 418. That is a very wide range, because it presumably allows for the possibility that Biden will grab both Florida and Texas on the night, which delivers a whopping 65 electoral votes. Trump’s possible range is put between 120 and 284.

They explain their model as combining state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day – in this case a 356 to 182 win for the Democrats.

Their model also has the Democrats as virtually certain to retain control of the congress, and with a 75% of seizing control of the Senate, which would be a clean blue sweep.”

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Dick Swiveller · Oct 29, 2020

bhafc99 said:
As Spence would say, here’s more fake BS lies from the biased lamestream media, ignoring the true Red Wave that his own expert analysis has identified. The Economist being a poxy commie-agenda-driven sham of a fake publication with no real credibility, obviously.

“The Economist have updated their modelling prediction of Tuesday’s election. They are now saying that Joe Biden has a 96% chance of winning the electoral college, and a more than 99% chance of winning the popular vote.

They put the possible range of Biden’s number of electoral college votes as between 254 to 418. That is a very wide range, because it presumably allows for the possibility that Biden will grab both Florida and Texas on the night, which delivers a whopping 65 electoral votes. Trump’s possible range is put between 120 and 284.

They explain their model as combining state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day – in this case a 356 to 182 win for the Democrats.

Their model also has the Democrats as virtually certain to retain control of the congress, and with a 75% of seizing control of the Senate, which would be a clean blue sweep.”

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Perhaps the trolling knob cheese is red/blue colour blind. Probably another sign of Long Covid.

knocky1 · Oct 29, 2020

Dick Swiveller said:
Perhaps the trolling knob cheese is red/blue colour blind. Probably another sign of Long Covid.

One of the reasons why this thread has not gone to the Bear Pit is by posters not throwing insults. I think knob cheese deserves an apology.

peterward · Oct 29, 2020

Grombleton said:
[tweet]1321641934419599360[/tweet]

Is this the US version of 'my dog ate my homework'?

These potentially game-changing documents...and no-one bothered to take a copy? **** me they're thick.

The send the empty envelope scam.

What horse shit.

Dick Swiveller · Oct 29, 2020

knocky1 said:
One of the reasons why this thread has not gone to the Bear Pit is by posters not throwing insults. I think knob cheese deserves an apology.

If you think I am apologising to Spence, you can think again.

vegster · Oct 29, 2020

Grombleton said:
[tweet]1321641934419599360[/tweet]

Is this the US version of 'my dog ate my homework'?

These potentially game-changing documents...and no-one bothered to take a copy? **** me they're thick.

Reminds me of one of the all time classic headlines from the Daily Star when it used to be barking hatstand..... " Double Decker Bus Seen on Surface of Moon !!!"....... three days later " Double Decker Bus MISSING From Surface of Moon !!! " ...

I think it's fair to say that there is no devastating information in the supposedly lost files. it's better to cause a fuss that they have gone " missing" rather than have them exposed to be the claptrap it really is.

Motogull · Oct 29, 2020

WATFORD zero said:
I see he's got Farage bringing his expertise to the rallys now. There really is nothing he wouldn't do for a few bob, is there.

Nigel Farage heaps praise on Donald Trump at Arizona rally. The US president calls former Ukip leader ‘one of the most powerful men in Europe’

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/29/nigel-farage-heaps-praise-on-donald-trump-at-arizona-rally

But isn't it a bit late ? I thought he'd already got the terminally stupid and gullible on board

It sounds like a comedy routine to me:

Trump introduced 7-time failed candidate for Westminster Farage as "one of the most powerful men in Europe."

Farage called 5-time draft dodger Trump "the bravest man he's ever met."

Laughed? I nearly shat.

PILTDOWN MAN · Oct 29, 2020

vegster said:
Reminds me of one of the all time classic headlines from the Daily Star when it used to be barking hatstand..... " Double Decker Bus Seen on Surface of Moon !!!"....... three days later " Double Decker Bus MISSING From Surface of Moon !!! " ...

I think it's fair to say that there is no devastating information in the supposedly lost files. it's better to cause a fuss that they have gone " missing" rather than have them exposed to be the claptrap it really is.

Memory playing tricks on you it was the the Daily/Sunday Sport and it was WW2 Bomber on the moon, double decker found buried at the South Pole

vegster · Oct 29, 2020

PILTDOWN MAN said:
Memory playing tricks on you it was the the Daily/Sunday Sport and it was WW2 Bomber on the moon, double decker found buried at the South Pole

Thanks !, I never bought any of them but I remember roughly the headlines.... I fear my marbles are starting to roll off now i'm 60 !

dingodan · Oct 29, 2020

One thing which is interesting when you look at the Hunter Biden / Ukraine / Joe Biden situation, is that the President (Trump) was actually impeached for trying to make U.S. support for Ukraine conditional on them investigating allegations of corruption involving Hunder Biden. In hindsight, with what we know now, Trump was a) trying to have actual corruption investigated (and making U.S. support conditional on tackling corruption is perfectly legitimate) and b) he was doing so regardless of the fact that the individual suspected of corruption had Washington ties, was the son of a former VP no less.

I know people hate Trump, and in many ways they have good reasons. But it looks to me like Trump was impeached for legitimately trying to get real corruption in Ukraine investigated, regardless of the fact that in involved someone who would otherwise, by any other President, have been protected. Trump can be a right dickhead at times, but on the Ukraine investigation, he was actually being the good guy, his only "crime" (for which he was actually impeached) was going after corrupt activity which was being perpetrated by someone with high level connections in Washington, which is usually a no-no.

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