Has there been a better time to go up?

Bold Seagull · Apr 20, 2017

Are there now just 7 mainstay clubs in the PL?

Every other team below 7th have been in the football league in the last 10 years. Next year at least 5, possibly more have been in League One or below in the last 10.

Anyone from 8th to 20th is capable of a poor season and getting sucked into a battle.

It used to follow that 2 if not 3 of the promoted teams would go straight back down. Not anymore. Potentially only 1 of the promoted teams this season will be relegated. Last season it was just 1.

You look at 8th to 17th with us and potentially who we will be promoted with, and it isn't quite so daunting? West Brom, Southampton, Watford, Stoke have all scored under 40 goals and sit 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th respectively with 39+ points. It doesn't need a miracle any more.

I'm very optimistic that we'll be okay next season. It is going to be better than perhaps some people expect.

SK1NT · Apr 20, 2017

The money is as high as ever for promiotion

Papa Lazarou · Apr 20, 2017

We definitely are entering a Premier League where the money, if not distributed more equally, is being distributed is such large amounts that any team can be competitive, of they spend wisely. Leicester's success last season was driven as much by being able to compete for players as their spirit etc.

If we invest wisely we can survive / compete with the bottom 12, and who knows where we can go from there?

Gwylan · Apr 20, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
.

It used to follow that 2 if not 3 of the promoted teams would go straight back down. Not anymore. Potentially only 1 of the promoted teams this season will be relegated. Last season it was just 1.

I can't be bothered to look it up but do any stattos know how Championship winners fare?

I note that Burnley, Bournemouth and Leicester are all still there - does it make a difference if you actually win the league?

Simster · Apr 20, 2017

Gwylan said:
I can't be bothered to look it up but do any stattos know how Championship winners fare?

I note that Burnley, Bournemouth and Leicester are all still there - does it make a difference if you actually win the league?

Perhaps it just reflects the fact that those teams knew they were promoted earlier and thus had an extra two or three weeks to prepare. Pure guesswork though - I really don't know how crucial those extra weeks might be...

Nathan · Apr 20, 2017

Gwylan said:
I can't be bothered to look it up but do any stattos know how Championship winners fare?

I note that Burnley, Bournemouth and Leicester are all still there - does it make a difference if you actually win the league?

I think it makes a difference in preparation time. We know what league we are in next season already, and can start planning, can start offering better contracts to our players, start scouting for better players etc. Although hopefully some of this started a while back. The play off final is the end of May, so we have a lot longer to get things in place!

WATFORD zero · Apr 20, 2017

I think that being promoted early has been a huge benefit to us. I suspect that we were in touch with the agents of players we are interested in on Tuesday. Whoever wins the play offs will be 6 weeks behind and that is a significant delay.

Stat Brother · Apr 20, 2017

With Sunderland and Boro coming down, on the back of other perennial choking dogs Villa I'd say 'no'.

It pains me to say it, but I reckon palace judged it perfectly.
The extra money has started to take effect, as the deadwood is cleared out in favour of fresh meat.

I think it's going to be tougher to get a foothold in the division without the safety net of 'easy' points against bad teams.

Bold Seagull · Apr 20, 2017

Stat Brother said:
With Sunderland and Boro coming down, on the back of other perennial choking dogs Villa I'd say 'no'.

It pains me to say it, but I reckon palace judged it perfectly.
The extra money has started to take effect, as the deadwood is cleared out in favour of fresh meat.

I think it's going to be tougher to get a foothold in the division without the safety net of 'easy' points against bad teams.

Yeah, but you would say that. :thumbsup:

warmleyseagull · Apr 20, 2017

Gwylan said:
I can't be bothered to look it up but do any stattos know how Championship winners fare?

I note that Burnley, Bournemouth and Leicester are all still there - does it make a difference if you actually win the league?

Assuming Sunderland are relegated, none of the previous seven Championship winners to these three will have survived, although WBA bounced back in 2010 in 2nd place behind CH's Toon after winning in 2008 (interestingly with 10 points more 2nd time) and have stayed. There is immaterial difference whether win Championship or not within the sample size.

The online BBC match report for Wigan game had more encouraging news that survival rates generally are improving, perhaps because there is a bit of flattening out below the '7' (Everton have to be included as they are never near relegation even if rarely near top 4 either). I have thought Prem was in effect three divisions: the '7'; the mid tier going nowhere but safe from early doors in the season; and the relegation scrappers. Now the gap between mid tier and scrappers seems to be reducing, as Swansea (& Palace) going south, and Leicester going north have shown. Hence there is no reason to suppose that Albion will deffo be in relegation battle.

warmleyseagull · Apr 20, 2017

Simster said:
Perhaps it just reflects the fact that those teams knew they were promoted earlier and thus had an extra two or three weeks to prepare. Pure guesswork though - I really don't know how crucial those extra weeks might be...

It's tempting and slightly smug to think so but the analysis I did just now suggests it probably isn't. Guess you could equally argue that POs mean players have to be sharp for longer so lose less momentum in close season.

Signings before end May are unknown, and not even that common before players start pre season. A slight advantage this year may be that there are no international championships in the summer but we know from previous that the system (and, I suspect, the Lizard's poker instincts during negotiations) mitigates against early developments. Can see many many more transfer threads yet......

NooBHA · Apr 20, 2017

Doesn't matter when you go up. Newly promoted clubs are always playing ''catch up '' in terms of financial clout

Finchley Seagull · Apr 20, 2017

warmleyseagull said:
It's tempting and slightly smug to think so but the analysis I did just now suggests it probably isn't. Guess you could equally argue that POs mean players have to be sharp for longer so lose less momentum in close season.

Signings before end May are unknown, and not even that common before players start pre season. A slight advantage this year may be that there are no international championships in the summer but we know from previous that the system (and, I suspect, the Lizard's poker instincts during negotiations) mitigates against early developments. Can see many many more transfer threads yet......

Fair point. I can't wait until the first thread on here moaning about lack of transfer activity. Given the two seasons we've just had, it would be great if people just trusted the club until the end of August but you can guarantee that won't happen!

Notters · Apr 20, 2017

Gwylan said:
I can't be bothered to look it up but do any stattos know how Championship winners fare?

I note that Burnley, Bournemouth and Leicester are all still there - does it make a difference if you actually win the league?

Here you go (and no I'm not stating that football didn't exist before 1992):

So if you assume Reading would have been relegated, when they weren't promoted, it would be 38% for both first and second place.

warmleyseagull said:
Assuming Sunderland are relegated, none of the previous seven Championship winners to these three will have survived, although WBA bounced back in 2010 in 2nd place behind CH's Toon after winning in 2008 (interestingly with 10 points more 2nd time) and have stayed. There is immaterial difference whether win Championship or not within the sample size.

But you're talking about years down the line there?!

5mins-from-amex · Apr 20, 2017

Notters said:
Here you go (and no I'm not stating that football didn't exist before 1992):

View attachment 84473

So if you assume Reading would have been relegated, when they weren't promoted, it would be 38% for both first and second place.

Hope you are aware that football did exist before 1992... sorry couldn't resist.

Bold Seagull · Apr 20, 2017

Notters said:
Here you go (and no I'm not stating that football didn't exist before 1992):

So if you assume Reading would have been relegated, when they weren't promoted, it would be 38% for both first and second place.

75% of championship champions and runner's up stayed up over the last 8 years.....

ThePompousPaladin · Apr 20, 2017

I should hope that chris and tony are putting a plan together to try and win it within 7-8 years.

bravohotelalpha · Apr 20, 2017

Nathan said:
I think it makes a difference in preparation time. We know what league we are in next season already, and can start planning, can start offering better contracts to our players, start scouting for better players etc. Although hopefully some of this started a while back. The play off final is the end of May, so we have a lot longer to get things in place!

Correct - planning for the premier league did indeed start a while back - 2 parallel plans so that we would be well prepared either way

Buzzer · Apr 20, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
Are there now just 7 mainstay clubs in the PL?

Every other team below 7th have been in the football league in the last 10 years. Next year at least 5, possibly more have been in League One or below in the last 10.

Anyone from 8th to 20th is capable of a poor season and getting sucked into a battle.

It used to follow that 2 if not 3 of the promoted teams would go straight back down. Not anymore. Potentially only 1 of the promoted teams this season will be relegated. Last season it was just 1.

You look at 8th to 17th with us and potentially who we will be promoted with, and it isn't quite so daunting? West Brom, Southampton, Watford, Stoke have all scored under 40 goals and sit 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th respectively with 39+ points. It doesn't need a miracle any more.

I'm very optimistic that we'll be okay next season. It is going to be better than perhaps some people expect.

Agree with all of that and would add that as heartbreaking as last year was, IMO the extra year in the Championship has us in a much better place to try to stay up next season than if we'd gone up last year.

Weststander · Apr 20, 2017

Shame Sunderland and M'boro won't be there for easy points. PL suckers.

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