Will 90 points be blown away this season?

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

For the last 20 years or so, the target of 90 points has been enough to secure a top 2 finish in the 46 game 2nd tier. (the last time it wasn't M'Boro needed 91 to pip Sunderland who finished 3rd on 90 in 97/98)

Looking at the previous 10 seasons, teams on 60+ points after 31 games:
2016 – 1 team 60points
2015 – 0
2014 – 1 team 67, 1 team 60
2013 – 1 team 67
2012 – 0
2011 – 1 team 60
2010 – 2 teams 60 points.
2009 – 1 team 63
2008 – 0
2007 – 1 team 62

This season: 66, 65, 61, 60.

Not sure how far back anyone wants to go, but it is astonishing, and anyone thinking 90 points is going to be enough needs to re-evaluate because right now, at 2 points a game, 4 teams will be 90+ points...

Berty23 · Feb 15, 2017

Which is why I have a bet with naylor on this. I am convinced that 90 will see you third. I expect 92 needed maybe even more.

Ernest · Feb 15, 2017

Nope, it will take a phenomenal run of form for 3 clubs to get 89+ and it won't happen

Exile · Feb 15, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
anyone thinking 90 points is going to be enough needs to re-evaluate because right now, at 2 points a game, 4 teams will be 90+ points...

I think you're overlooking just how many matches the top six have left against EACH OTHER. That is why four teams won't manage 2ppg.

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

Ernest said:
Nope, it will take a phenomenal run of form for 3 clubs to get 89+ and it won't happen

Newcastle W6 D6 L3 90
Brighton W7 D4 L4 90
H'Field W8 D5 L2 90
Reading W9 D3 L2 90

Is that a phenomenal run for any of the top 3 this season?

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

Exile said:
I think you're overlooking just how many matches the top six have left against EACH OTHER. That is why four teams won't manage 2ppg.

The top 4 can all afford to lose 2 or 3 games, draw 2 to 4, and still get to 90 points.

Berty23 · Feb 15, 2017

Ernest said:
Nope, it will take a phenomenal run of form for 3 clubs to get 89+ and it won't happen

You seem certain. 10 quid to REMF when you are WRONG?

DavidRyder · Feb 15, 2017

9 wins from 15 please!

GT49er · Feb 15, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
For the last 20 years or so, the target of 90 points has been enough to secure a top 2 finish in the 46 game 2nd tier. (the last time it wasn't M'Boro needed 91 to pip Sunderland who finished 3rd on 90 in 97/98)

Looking at the previous 10 seasons, teams on 60+ points after 31 games:
2016 – 1 team 60points
2015 – 0
2014 – 1 team 67, 1 team 60
2013 – 1 team 67
2012 – 0
2011 – 1 team 60
2010 – 2 teams 60 points.
2009 – 1 team 63
2008 – 0
2007 – 1 team 62

This season: 66, 65, 61, 60.

Not sure how far back anyone wants to go, but it is astonishing, and anyone thinking 90 points is going to be enough needs to re-evaluate because right now, at 2 points a game, 4 teams will be 90+ points...

Only three teams are on 60+ points after thirty one games, not four.

Ernest · Feb 15, 2017

If Newcastle win all their games = 111
Albion win all their games and lose to Newcastle = 107
Huddersfield win all their games and lose to Newcastle = 103
Reading win all their games except to the 3 teams above = 93
Leeds win all their games but lose to the 4 teams above = 90

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

GT49er said:
Only three teams are on 60+ points after thirty one games, not four.

That is a quality spot that only NSC can provide.

Forget oversight committees, you can get elected to president of the free world on promises and half truths, but you cannot put a statistical foot wrong on NSC!!

Ernest · Feb 15, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
That is a quality spot that only NSC can provide.

Forget oversight committees, you can get elected to president of the free world on promises and half truths, but you cannot put a statistical foot wrong on NSC!!

And Reading have played 32

adub68 · Feb 15, 2017

Nine wins would be phenomenal for Reading - they face Hudds, BHA, Sheff Weds and Norwich away and have both Toon and Leeds to play at home. They also have to travel to Preston.

8 wins for Huddersfield is not out of the question if their form continues. With only Norwich of the top six/seven to play away from home (they face Derby away too) and like us they have Reading and Toon at home. They do however have Barns and Preston to play locally. While they are starting 4 points back a spread of 24-30 points doesnt seem out of their reach

BensGrandad · Feb 15, 2017

The calculations are confused by the amount of games each team has against each other in the a top six and they cant all get maximum points. in fact I envisage a number of draws.

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

Ernest said:
And Reading have played 32

Yeah, but its taken someone to point it out for you to notice! :dunce:

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

BensGrandad said:
The calculations are confused by the amount of games each team has against each other in the a top six and they cant all get maximum points. in fact I envisage a number of draws.

The top 3 only need 2 points per game to get to 90 points, so it takes into account draws and defeats.

Ernest · Feb 15, 2017

Berty23 said:
You seem certain. 10 quid to REMF when you are WRONG?

So do you £10 a point the 3rd team are less than 90 so 85 points you OWE £50

Murray 17 · Feb 15, 2017

The point being made about the top sides playing each other is important.

Also, you have to look at the spread of points throughout the division. For 3 or 4 to get 90+, you would need 3 or 4 teams to be cut adrift at the bottom. At the moment, only Rotherham look doomed.

Bold Seagull · Feb 15, 2017

Murray 17 said:
The point being made about the top sides playing each other is important.

Also, you have to look at the spread of points throughout the division. For 3 or 4 to get 90+, you would need 3 or 4 teams to be cut adrift at the bottom. At the moment, only Rotherham look doomed.

The top 3 with 15 to play need 24, 25 and 29 points from a possible 45 to get to 90. It doesn't take an A-Level in maths to work out that they can all lose 4 games each, and still comfortably get to 90 points. The playing each other is a red herring. 1 team's defeat is the other's 3 points closer to 90. All the games against each can be drawn, and they'd still do it. You don't need to look at the bottom of the table to see what is staring you in the face at the top.

Berty23 · Feb 15, 2017

Ernest said:
So do you £10 a point the 3rd team are less than 90 so 85 points you OWE £50

I am not flush enough for spreadbetting. It was more a challenge of your CONFIDENCE To put your money where your mouth is. I have a tenner riding on it but won't be doing more because I am not that confident. You appear CONVINCED so what is your stake?

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