Still on course...Experimental 361

Seagull Mags · Feb 7, 2017

Link...https://experimental361.com/2017/02/06/point-spread-gifs-championship-5-feb-2017/

"Newcastle and Brighton are unsurprisingly looking pretty healthy by historical standards. In fact nobody has ever failed to win promotion in the 21-year history of the current league structure with 61 points or more from 29 games (the Seagulls’ current tally), although Bolton ended up 3rd after having 60 at this stage in 2000/01.

Both Reading and Huddersfield would be looking decent value for a top two finish if the current incumbents weren’t storming so far ahead – both have tallies which compare favourably to previous second-place finishers"

It is a worry Bolton came 3rd with 60 points at this stage (good job we have 61) UTA

BBassic · Feb 7, 2017

Love me some stats!

Albumen · Feb 7, 2017

BBassic said:
Love me some stats!

Team P GD Pts Points total
1 Newcastle 29 34 62 94
2 Brighton 29 23 61 94
3 Reading 30 5 56 84
4 Huddersfield 29 5 55 86
5 Leeds 30 12 54 82

Predict Newcastle to draw away, win at home. Then do the same for the next 4 taking into account the higher teams result against them.
e.g because Newc got a point away at the Amex, we only got a point, not 3. Then Hudds (due to points per game so far), then Reading, then dirty Leeds.

It's all shite but it kept me busy for 10 minutes.

moggy · Feb 7, 2017

Let's just get sally morgan to look into the future and tell us the final table and put us all out of our misery

GoldWithFalmer · Feb 7, 2017

If Brighton somehow fail from here and repeat historical occasional let downs,despite being a grown man,i shall go away and cry for a very long time,i might never recover..

Enough of all that,burp,fart,right who wants a fight!!! we are going up!

Bob! · Feb 7, 2017

Seagull Mags said:
Link...https://experimental361.com/2017/02/06/point-spread-gifs-championship-5-feb-2017/

"<snip>

Both Reading and Huddersfield <snip> have tallies which compare favourably to previous second-place finishers"

It is a worry Bolton came 3rd with 60 points at this stage (good job we have 61) UTA

This is the bit that's the worry, a minor blip and there are two teams ready to slip by....

The Andy Naylor Fan Club · Feb 7, 2017

moggy said:
Let's just get sally morgan to look into the future and tell us the final table and put us all out of our misery

I'm still waiting for Doris Stokes to report in! :wozza:

essbee · Feb 7, 2017

GoldWithFalmer said:
If Brighton somehow fail from here and repeat historical occasional let downs,despite being a grown man,i shall go away and cry for a very long time,i might never recover..

Enough of all that,burp,fart,right who wants a fight!!! we are going up!

For the nth time - everyone else can f*** right off - we'e going up.

GoldWithFalmer · Feb 8, 2017

essbee said:
For the nth time - everyone else can f*** right off - we'e going up.

Make it a 10th and we have a deal :flameboun

OzMike · Feb 8, 2017

GoldWithFalmer said:
If Brighton somehow fail from here and repeat historical occasional let downs,despite being a grown man,i shall go away and cry for a very long time,i might never recover..

Enough of all that,burp,fart,right who wants a fight!!! we are going up!

We do seem to have a history of choking in this division.

GoldWithFalmer · Feb 8, 2017

OzMike said:
We do seem to have a history of choking in this division.

We have never won it,i would love us too,failing that of course 2nd place seems very appealing and well within our grasp......what better way than to make the most of a somewhat interesting month of fixtures-

than by rounding off with actually beating Newcastle and Reading back to back...

nwgull · Feb 8, 2017

OzMike said:
We do seem to have a history of choking in this division.

Reasuringly, we don't. Our record over the past 5 seasons for the final third of the regular season is actually very good.

GoldWithFalmer · Feb 8, 2017

nwgull said:
Reasuringly, we don't. Our record over the past 5 seasons for the final third of the regular season is actually very good.

Vs the top 6 until this season,less so......we must beat Newcastle and Reading to show we really do intend to be promoted,i appreciate we could lose to both and still do so..

Rugrat · Feb 8, 2017

Thought I'd wheel this out again. Despite a hit rate of little over 50% there's been little change in relative position since the New Year. The incorrect forecasts do tend to nullify each other to some extent.

I'd say us and Hudders have the least dodgy set of fixtures and Newcastle's stand out as being particularly tough, but I feel they have the depth to cope. In saying that if that run of 3 aways yields bugger all then it could throw them off track

No doubt the usual criticism so rather than a "Predictor" how about a "What If"? Oh, have tried to be conservative with ours but less so the others, they won't all get into the 80's for sure

martin tyler · Feb 8, 2017

GoldWithFalmer said:
Vs the top 6 until this season,less so......we must beat Newcastle and Reading to show we really do intend to be promoted,i appreciate we could lose to both and still do so..

It's not that bad either
6 points v massive
3 so far v Leeds
3 out of 6 v Huddersfield
1 out of 3 v reading
0 out of 3 v Newcastle

4 wins out of 7 so far And 2 of the 3 left at home as well is a pretty decent return especially compared to last year

martin tyler · Feb 8, 2017

GoldWithFalmer said:
Vs the top 6 until this season,less so......we must beat Newcastle and Reading to show we really do intend to be promoted,i appreciate we could lose to both and still do so..

Sorry misread the until this season bit

BBassic · Feb 8, 2017

GoldWithFalmer said:
We have never won it,i would love us too,failing that of course 2nd place seems very appealing and well within our grasp......what better way than to make the most of a somewhat interesting month of fixtures-

than by rounding off with actually beating Newcastle and Reading back to back...

Would be fantastic but I'm anticipating two nervy draws.

wallyback · Feb 8, 2017

OzMike said:
We do seem to have a history of choking in this division.

Hardly!

Last season was circumstances - Stephens sending off, and a sniper on the crowd for the first SW playoff game
The Oscar season - we never deserved to go up that year. We over achieved.
Ceiling season - We choked!

The Fish · Feb 8, 2017

Couple of mackem supporting mates have asked me if I'm worried about Newcastle's poor season. They honestly thought that we should be running away with the league, and it was only after I explained just how well Brighton are doing that they understood that Newcastle are doing fine too.

I know a lot of Brighton fans have been burnt before and don't want to jinx it, but as a Newcastle fan, I can objectively say that Brighton are playing like Champions-elect. You'll have a wobble here and there, but you grind out results. Hughton did exactly the same with us in 09/10 and we bullied our way to the title. The only reason people are accusing either side of slipping is that the top two clubs are so close.

Leeds, Reading, Huddersfield are very good Championship sides, Brighton and Newcastle are playing like Premier League sides. Not very good Premier League sides, but top flight sides none-the-less.

Should we continue our PpG you'll get 97pts and we'll get roughly the same. The chasing pack would have to raise their game significantly to catch up.

I'm not saying it's a mortal lock, but I wouldn't be so worried. I'm confident you'll have the joy of away days to Stoke in 17/18, trust me.

Curious Orange · Feb 8, 2017

The Fish said:
I'm confident you'll have the joy of away days to Stoke in 17/18, trust me.

That's it, I don't WANT to get promoted now! I hate Stoke's ground!

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