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Championship winning odds



Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,110
Surrey
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

Best prices:

Newcastle 2/5
Albion 3/1
Derby 40/1
50/1 bar


I'm not saying it will happen but IMO Albion is the only value bet there because I don't see much difference between the top two in truth. I honestly don't think any other club has a chance of winning the title. Of the rest, Derby (or Norwich?) might overhaul us, they might overhaul Newcastle, but they won't overhaul both.

By the way, we are now 4/11 to finish top two and 2/5 for promotion.
 


Lush

Mods' Pet
I am wondering if we are benefitting from this kind of thinking on the pitch. I still can't get over the way Leeds played the other night. It's almost as if they didn't expect to win. Yet they're clearly a good team. They're not the first to play like that either.
 


Buzzer

Languidly Clinical
Oct 1, 2006
26,121
I am wondering if we are benefitting from this kind of thinking on the pitch. I still can't get over the way Leeds played the other night. It's almost as if they didn't expect to win. Yet they're clearly a good team. They're not the first to play like that either.

You're right. Huddersfield were top when we played them but showed zero ambition at the Amex. They were time-wasting in the first half and clearly looking for a point away.
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,110
Surrey
Derby are actually best price 45-1. Some each-way value there, I feel.

Correct. I did spot that but wrote 40/1.

Not sure about there being much value in it though. You'll get worse than 8/1 for Derby finishing 2nd with Paddy Power at 45/1. That said, SkyBet go 10/1 for a Derby top 2 finish. That might be worth a punt I guess, because I just can't see them finishing top.
 




Betfair Bozo

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,094
Derby are actually best price 45-1. Some each-way value there, I feel.

That is 1/6 the odds a place and only 2 places though. If you really fancy Derby then 70 on Betfair for top spot and 4/1 with PP to be promoted a better bet (imvho.)
 


Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/winner

Best prices:

Newcastle 2/5
Albion 3/1
Derby 40/1
50/1 bar


I'm not saying it will happen but IMO Albion is the only value bet there because I don't see much difference between the top two in truth. I honestly don't think any other club has a chance of winning the title. Of the rest, Derby (or Norwich?) might overhaul us, they might overhaul Newcastle, but they won't overhaul both.

By the way, we are now 4/11 to finish top two and 2/5 for promotion.
Changes in these average odds ARE a decent barometer of real probabilities (whatever any sages come up with about betting patterns...).

Also, the bookies currently don't really split Derby, Norwich and Massive as being our closest rivals.

Then further behind again they have another pack together of Leeds, Reading, Villa and Huddersfield.
 


Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
Happy with my 12/1 I got in the summer for albion to win the league.
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,110
Surrey
Changes in these average odds ARE a decent barometer of real probabilities (whatever any sages come up with about betting patterns...).

Also, the bookies currently don't really split Derby, Norwich and Massive as being our closest rivals.

Then further behind again they have another pack together of Leeds, Reading, Villa and Huddersfield.

Not necessarily true. Odds reflect bookies liabilities as much as anything else. Loads of punters will have lumped on Newcastle at the beginning of the season when odds were a bit more generous, which means that you'll get crap odds on them now.
 


Betfair Bozo

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,094
Not necessarily true. Odds reflect bookies liabilities as much as anything else. Loads of punters will have lumped on Newcastle at the beginning of the season when odds were a bit more generous, which means that you'll get crap odds on them now.

The exchange price is (almost) irrelevant to firms' liabilities though and the Toon are currently around 4/9 and we are a smidge over 3/1.
 


Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
The exchange price is (almost) irrelevant to firms' liabilities though and the Toon are currently around 4/9 and we are a smidge over 3/1.
This. Every time this comes up I argue against the "bookies' liabilities" argument...

The odds across the firms vary only marginally and the exchange prices always reflect roughly an average price across the firms.

If these football outrights odds were so predictably biased by betting patterns (i.e. favourites get backed early in the season and prices over shorten), and thus unrepresentative of real probabilities, then no-one with a brain would be working for a living (unless they wanted to...)...!!

Obviously the bookie odds do not represent precise probabilities but they do provide a reasonable guide.
 




Betfair Bozo

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,094
This. Every time this comes up I argue against the "bookies' liabilities" argument...

The odds across the firms vary only marginally and the exchange prices always reflect roughly an average price across the firms.

If these football outrights odds were so predictably biased by betting patterns (i.e. favourites get backed early in the season and prices over shorten), and thus unrepresentative of real probabilities, then no-one with a brain would be working for a living (unless they wanted to...)...!!

Obviously the bookie odds do not represent precise probabilities but they do provide a reasonable guide.

Most of the firms operate the same models anyway now and the recent mergers mean even less scope for margin. Liabilities can be limited anyway (hedging) and compilers do not have the freedom to massively take a view. Anyway, we are talking about winning the Championship not some random event where inside info is at play.
 


Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,839
Derby are actually best price 45-1. Some each-way value there, I feel.

But the one firm going 45-1 is win only, and the only two that have each-way prices on the outright market are paying two places, and either 1/4 odds at 33-1 or 1/6 at 40-1.

Derby have certainly picked up after a terrible start, and the fact that they have conceded so few goals (same as us - 13, though played one less) suggests they are going to be very hard to beat. But even on recent form, it's hard to see them closing the gap.

If you date the start of their good run to after they lost vs Blackburn on 24 September, they have W8, D2, L1. Even if they win at QPR tonight - which is odds-against - they will have 29 points from their last 12. We have 28 over the same period - W8, D4. So for all their hard work and good run of form, they've gained a solitary point on us in two-and-a-half months. At that rate, they will need another 84 games to get past us, even if they win at Loftus Road & the Amex...
 



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