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The daily 'points required' thread....



Feb 23, 2009
22,840
Brighton factually.....
After a request from warmleyseagull here it is the daily "points required" thread...

20 games in 42 points achieved I think we need just 8 more points to be sure of safety and with 26 games left that is an average of just 0.1025641 per game well within our grasp...

What say you ?
 


Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
We are still on track for a win-at-home-draw-away 92 point finish.

50 points to go from the 26 games.

The countdown has started :rock:
 


Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
Good thread.

We need a list of points gained by teams finishing 2nd over a 46 game season since 3pts for a win came in. If we work out the mean then that will be the number of points needed in total this year for automatic promotion.
 


Jimmehh

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2016
758
Sussex by the Sea
Good thread.

We need a list of points gained by teams finishing 2nd over a 46 game season since 3pts for a win came in. If we work out the mean then that will be the number of points needed in total this year for automatic promotion.

Over the last 6 seasons, the mean (average) is 87 points for second place. 45 points from remaining 26 games! EASY
 


Bob!

Coffee Buyer
Jul 5, 2003
11,062
Over the last 6 seasons, the mean (average) is 87 points for second place. 45 points from remaining 26 games! EASY

So...

If we get 87 points we'll definitely go up then!
 




Jimmehh

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2016
758
Sussex by the Sea
So...

If we get 87 points we'll definitely go up then!

Well no.. considering we got 89 and didn't last season, and 3 seasons ago, it took Burnley 93 points, it's in no way accurate.

But still, we'd be VERY unlucky to miss out two seasons in a row on the high 80 points. But, never say never.
 




Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
Over the last 6 seasons, the mean (average) is 87 points for second place. 45 points from remaining 26 games! EASY
This will probably be about right (within a point or two).

A little sobering that our excellent start to the season will count for nothing if we do not keep up almost the same form until the end...
 




Nixonator

Well-known member
Feb 8, 2016
6,733
Shoreham Beach
This will probably be about right (within a point or two).

A little sobering that our excellent start to the season will count for nothing if we do not keep up almost the same form until the end...

Not quite, with our current form we'd be just shy of 100pts. We can afford a bigger blip in the 2nd half than we had in the 1st. Newcastle, Derby & Reading all home games with Norwich and Villa away.
 


Peter Grummit

Well-known member
Oct 13, 2004
6,769
Lewes
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Feb 23, 2009
22,840
Brighton factually.....
Good thread.

We need a list of points gained by teams finishing 2nd over a 46 game season since 3pts for a win came in. If we work out the mean then that will be the number of points needed in total this year for automatic promotion.

Can we also knock off teams as they fall by the wayside and can't catch us....
 








Peter Grummit

Well-known member
Oct 13, 2004
6,769
Lewes
Not sure I entirely follow that chart. How are Newcastle more likely to make the top 2 than us, yet also more likely to miss out on the top 6?

I was wondering that. It's very small margins, and as it's done on a multiple simulation basis I'm guessing there is a random factor in there. Either that, or our much lower 'loss' total but higher 'draw' total to date makes for a smaller range in outcomes than Newcastle.

PG
 




Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
Not sure I entirely follow that chart. How are Newcastle more likely to make the top 2 than us, yet also more likely to miss out on the top 6?
It is strange. Would make us tremendous value for the title if there really was essentially no difference between us and Newcastle...
 




Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
Not quite, with our current form we'd be just shy of 100pts. We can afford a bigger blip in the 2nd half than we had in the 1st. Newcastle, Derby & Reading all home games with Norwich and Villa away.
I said "almost the same form"... I find it sobering and exciting in turns that we are very unlikely to ever get "clear" in second place. We will need to maintain almost the same level of point gathering achieved so far.

I certainly hope we don't end up needing a point at Villa...!!
 


pasty

A different kind of pasty
Jul 5, 2003
30,180
West, West, West Sussex
I find it sobering and exciting in turns that we are very unlikely to ever get "clear" in second place.

Although...............A Brighton win and a Reading defeat tomorrow night would put us 8 points clear of second :clap:
 




hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
Although...............A Brighton win and a Reading defeat tomorrow night would put us 8 points clear of second :clap:

Indeed.

Just as an Albion defeat and a Reading win will see them TWO points behind us.
 





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