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Work friend wager



nordicgod

Top banana
Jul 21, 2011
885
polegate
A work colleague who is a big Newcastle fan has given little old brighton 13 extra points and wagered me £20 that they wil be sooo clear of us, I had to shake his hand and hopefully better than the £20 then bragging rights at end of season , go on the super seagulls
 


Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
69,880
A work colleague who is a big Newcastle fan has given little old brighton 13 extra points and wagered me £20 that they wil be sooo clear of us, I had to shake his hand and hopefully better than the £20 then bragging rights at end of season , go on the super seagulls

What a very generous person your work colleague is - not to mention head-mental! Your winnings are safe in the bank already :thumbsup:
 


Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,281
The current spread bet with Sporting index (I.e No. Of points at season end)

Newcastle 92.5 -94.5
Albion 83.5 - 85.5

In other words the bookies currently have the gap at 9 points.
 




Normski1989

Well-known member
Apr 15, 2015
751
Hove
The current spread bet with Sporting index (I.e No. Of points at season end)

Newcastle 92.5 -94.5
Albion 83.5 - 85.5

In other words the bookies currently have the gap at 9 points.

That's simply because the bookies have based it on us being 3 points behind after 1/3 of the season has been played. Their predictions are useless.
 




happypig

Staring at the rude boys
May 23, 2009
7,935
Eastbourne
The current spread bet with Sporting index (I.e No. Of points at season end)

Newcastle 92.5 -94.5
Albion 83.5 - 85.5

In other words the bookies currently have the gap at 9 points.

I know all of those words, but not in the order written. I don't think gambling is for me...
 




Normski1989

Well-known member
Apr 15, 2015
751
Hove
Wait, the guy thinks that between now and the end of the season we're only going to pick up 13 points?

No. He will add 13 points onto Brighton's total at the end of the season and is betting that Newcastle would still finish above them. So he basically thinks we'll finish at least 13 points behind them with a worse goal difference.
 




BBassic

I changed this.
Jul 28, 2011
12,220
No. He will add 13 points onto Brighton's total at the end of the season and is betting that Newcastle would still finish above them. So he basically thinks we'll finish at least 13 points behind them with a worse goal difference.

Oh! Right, thanks.

That's slightly less insulting but still pretty laughable.
 


Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,281
I know all of those words, but not in the order written. I don't think gambling is for me...

The ‘’Spread’’ is the number of points Albion are expected to get after 46 games this season. That is currently set between 83.5 and 85.5 points. You can bet over i.e more than 85.5 or under which is less than 83.5.

If you bet £10 per point that Albion would get over 85.5 points you would win or lose as follows :

If Albion got 84 points. No win / no lose – I.e between 83.5 and 85.5 points

If Albion got 90 points you would win £45 (4.5, the difference between 90 and 85.5 multiplied by 10)

If Albion got 80 points you would lose £35 (3.5, the difference between 83.5 and 80)

You can really do your nuts on spread betting if you get it wrong.
 


Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,281
That's simply because the bookies have based it on us being 3 points behind after 1/3 of the season has been played. Their predictions are useless.

If you really think a trader working within a spread betting company with access to thousands of computerised models who works out odds for a living would simply multiply the current gap by 3 after roughly a third of the season, Can I please take any bets you place?
 




Normski1989

Well-known member
Apr 15, 2015
751
Hove
If you really think a trader working within a spread betting company with access to thousands of computerised models who works out odds for a living would simply multiply the current gap by 3 after roughly a third of the season, Can I please take any bets you place?

If you had any true knowledge of the way the odds are calculated, you'd know that they use extremely complicated formulas to work out the predicted spread points total. But you'd also know that they'd apply the same formula to all teams in a similar position in the league, unless they have reason to believe that team is in a false position, which doesn't apply to either us or Newcastle. This would quite simply result in the gap after 1/3 of the season being multiplied by three, as both teams would be subject to the same mathematical formula.
 




hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
Personally I think its a pretty fair bet. We are doing brilliantly well thus far to keep up with them, despite them winning EVERY week.

We will inevitably have a dip somewhere though, and their squad is so deep, with power to add in January, that we'll do well to keep right alongside.

Realistically we could achieve second and STILL lose this bet.
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,110
Surrey
Personally I think its a pretty fair bet. We are doing brilliantly well thus far to keep up with them, despite them winning EVERY week.

We will inevitably have a dip somewhere though, and their squad is so deep, with power to add in January, that we'll do well to keep right alongside.

Realistically we could achieve second and STILL lose this bet.

Indeed, although I think we'll finish comfortably within 13 points of them. That said, a lot will depend on our injury list come January. There are about 3 players where long term injuries could seriously derail our promotion bid. I'm not going to mention their names because I don't want to be blamed if it happened!
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
Indeed, although I think we'll finish comfortably within 13 points of them. That said, a lot will depend on our injury list come January. There are about 3 players where long term injuries could seriously derail our promotion bid. I'm not going to mention their names because I don't want to be blamed if it happened!

IF Kayal and Rosenior come back firing, that mitigates against injuries in a few areas. Similarly IF March's return is for real, and he stays fit.

The 'other' striker is still a very obvious gap in the squad though, as everyone knows.
 


Driver8

On the road...
NSC Patreon
Jul 31, 2005
15,951
North Wales
The ‘’Spread’’ is the number of points Albion are expected to get after 46 games this season. That is currently set between 83.5 and 85.5 points. You can bet over i.e more than 85.5 or under which is less than 83.5.

If you bet £10 per point that Albion would get over 85.5 points you would win or lose as follows :

If Albion got 84 points. No win / no lose – I.e between 83.5 and 85.5 points

If Albion got 90 points you would win £45 (4.5, the difference between 90 and 85.5 multiplied by 10)

If Albion got 80 points you would lose £35 (3.5, the difference between 83.5 and 80)

You can really do your nuts on spread betting if you get it wrong.

How do we get half a point?
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
How do we get half a point?

We don't -which is exactly what keeps the system simple.

Say for example you are betting on the number of runs in a cricket innings, the bookie will allow you to bet against a total (let's say 360.5 runs) You are betting that the team will score ABOVE or BELOW the stated total, and because of the 0.5, there are only two possible outcomes. If the bookie made it 360, there are three options to consider, complicating matters.
 




Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,281
If you had any true knowledge of the way the odds are calculated, you'd know that they use extremely complicated formulas to work out the predicted spread points total. But you'd also know that they'd apply the same formula to all teams in a similar position in the league, unless they have reason to believe that team is in a false position, which doesn't apply to either us or Newcastle. This would quite simply result in the gap after 1/3 of the season being multiplied by three, as both teams would be subject to the same mathematical formula.

OK Einstein. I'll leave you to clean up on the spreads with your 3 times table.

#Spreadbettingbythebollox
 


Normski1989

Well-known member
Apr 15, 2015
751
Hove
OK Einstein. I'll leave you to clean up on the spreads with your 3 times table.

#Spreadbettingbythebollox

You'll also note that I said in my original post that their predictions are useless. Just because I understand the formulas doesn't make it easy to win.

My whole point is that the bookies have us finishing around 9 points behind Newcastle based on their complicated, yet consistent, mathematical equations. Their formulas don't have the ability to factor in injuries that are yet to come, increased pressure from fans or mental strength and team spirit. Hence why I said that their predictions are useless in terms of working out if we'll be within 13 points of Newcastle or not.
 



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