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Tony's horse today DYOR



robbie c

Member
Jan 30, 2008
632
Leighton buzzard
Taken from Betfair's site


Havana Beat looks to have been primed for the Cesarewitch all season and an unfavourable draw in 35 is not going to deter me from backing him.

Betting is all about risk and reward, and the fact that the selection has drifted out to 36.00 and bigger on the back of being handed that car park berth is adequate compensation.

Yes, I would have rather he had been drawn in single figures, but that is why we are getting inflated odds. Remember, this horse was steadily backed throughout the week and whose last-traded price in Betfair's ante-post market, suspended at 10am on Thursday morning, was 24.00.

So why was he backed?

It certainly wasn't because of his solid form claims this season, even though he has given the odd glimpse that the 2015 fires may still be smouldering - notably York in August, and to a lesser extent on unfavourable soft ground at Ffos Las last time - and ready to ignite once again.

And we come back to the above trade-off again. Of course, he hasn't been in A1 form this season but that is why he has dropped to a mark of just 94 from a mid-summer high of 112 last year.

Go back and have a look at his Yorkshire Cup third, or when he was beaten just 5 ½ lengths in the Gold Cup - he looked dangerous rounding the turn at Ascot - and you have to be interested in him off 94.

I may be wide of the mark here but I think his owner Tony Bloom is only interested in big valuable handicap pots, as he has proven with he and Dean Ivory's expert placing of Librisa Breeze this season, and it would come as no surprise if this has been the plan since he was acquired this year when rated 105.

Of course, the draw is a negative but it isn't insurmountable if you have the horse, as Never Can Tell showed when winning from 36 in 2011.

Expect to hear that horse's name a lot in the next 24 hours when people like me cling to that lifeline!
 






Tony Towner's Fridge

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2003
5,384
GLASGOW,SCOTLAND,UK
Betfair man on The Morning Line says it has been backed this morning.

I like Oriental Fox...2nd last year off 3lb higher and has also been backed, which for Johnston horses is usually telling...

Patent with Harmonise and Thunder Snow

TNBA

TTF
 













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