- Jul 10, 2003
- 25,807
Someone need a cuddle ?
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[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
- Start date
Someone need a cuddle ?
TheJasperCo
Well-known member
It's sobering seeing the queues at the border between Gibraltar and Spain. For pedestrians walking through (either direction), it's actually not too bad - the Guardia Civil and UK Border staff don't seem to care much of the time. A different story for vehicles moving in and out - there's gridlock practically 18 hours a day, one way or the other.
But whenever I've checked, the bookies seem to thing a second referendum is extremely unlikely.
The idea that Boris has put forward, is that he'd go to the EU with a simple 'No Deal', or let's work out a deal that I can get through parliament. I think this would be the best way to get a suitable soft Brexit deal that parliament would be happy with, but the problem is that Boris is an untrustworthy, self-serving duplicitous c*nt who would stab his own grandmother, so no sensible person would let him go to the EU with that power.
What I think we could do is put to parliament a Switzerland style deal. A deal that would be ok for the UK, and would also be fair to the EU. If parliament voted to accept it, and parliament put in law that we would have to accept that deal if the EU were agreeable, then you could send someone even as crap as Boris to the EU with a take it or leave it offer. If the EU were to accept the deal, then that would be that. If the EU were to reject the deal, then we would then leave without a deal.
Leaving without a deal would of course be very bad for the UK, the EU, the US, China, and most other countries, because there would be a knock on affect. But in this scenario, leaving without a deal would be up to the EU to decide, so I'd expect them to take the deal.
Postman Pat
Well-known member
Paddy Power odds:
To leave EU in 2019
No 1/2
Yes 6/4
Second Ref before end 2019
No 1/100
Yes 12/1
No deal Brexit in 2019
No - 1/5
Yes 3/1
Result of 2nd Referendum
Remain 2/1
Leave 5/1
Article 50 to be revoked before end 2020
No 4/11
Yes 2/1
KFC to close chicken outlets due to running out of chicken 11/4
Queen to move to Ireland 150/1
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
A big factor in those odds is whether or not Corbyn is goaded into an election before October 31st.
The article I copied into re France & Switzerland appears to say much the same.
The border for lorries is very different than the border for 'obvious' commuters.
It's hard to imagine any kind of Irish border being implemented and managed smoothly.
- Jul 10, 2003
- 25,807
I think I would disagree on a Switzerland type deal as I think a Customs Union deal would be simpler all round (particularly with regards to NI) and far more beneficial economically to Britain. And I do believe a 'Soft Brexit' is still a possibility, just not sure how either would get through parliament currently.
But I agree with every word on Johnson
Nobby
Well-known member
- Sep 29, 2007
- 2,610
Well I suppose you will find it all a little bewildering, if you think that article confounds all the NSC monetary experts
Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
Well played.
As well as your fundamental failure to understand the responsibilities with which an MP is charged, you also continually ignore that they represent NOT just 'the people who sent them there' by voting for them, but in fact ALL constituents, regardless of their voting history.
Nor am I you annoying little man, keep your large beak out of other people’s conversations, if I wanted you involved I wouldn’t have replied and quoted to him only now would I, and that’s rhetorical so don’t bother coming back with one of your snaky responses!
Nobby
Well-known member
- Sep 29, 2007
- 2,610
Pretty to easy for Switzerland to have any sort of border it wants, given you have to traverse Mordor to get in and out. Pretty easy to manage imports and exports on it's road. It's a bit different in Ireland.
Also, whereas Switzerland is a secretive and extremely well ordered, rich, finance-based state, Ulster and Eire have a large proportion of poor people, farmers, and a historical proclivity for criminality, gun running, moonshine and religious bigotry. At present the latter states are both in the EU tent and we have been enjoying the benefits of the peace process....maybe we could leave the EU and leave the border as it is and nothing would change....that would be nice if possible, but if there are hitches it could all turn very nasty very quickly. Smuggling contraband and people into the UK via Ulster could easily become a thing. I'm tempted to buy shares it it, actually.
Edit I see that others such as [MENTION=435]Stat Brother[/MENTION] have illustrated my border point above. You can't just travel in and out of Switzerland in a big lorry full of contraband. When we leave the EU we will have a hard border, by definition. That means a hard border in Ireland is unavoidable.
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Publius Ovidius
Well-known member
. Ha ha ha
- Jul 10, 2003
- 25,807
I really wouldn't want to butt in but, do you think that if you are trying to have a private conversation with someone and don't want others commenting, an open forum may not be the best place to conduct it ?
Just trying to help
We currently have a free movement of goods and people between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That would need to remain as is. Moving things between one and the other wouldn't be smuggling, it would be as legal as it is now.
That doesn't make sense. You can match the EU laws if you're not in the EU.
Yes, you're probably right.
Klaas
I've changed this
- Nov 1, 2017
- 2,562
I'll eat my own fingers if bashldir actually replies to this.
Thanks for all that, much appreciated
So, unless I missed it, there's no version of actually leaving that's odds on. And also no version of permanently remaining that's odds on. So what they do think is likely, is that we'll carry on as we are, doing **** all.It’s fascinating how many people don’t understand this, or choose to ignore it.