[Politics] Brexit

Mental Lental said:

My money's on "it would've happened anyway."

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Yep. With an added “it’s just convenient to blame it on Brexit”.

The Clamp said:

They will find some way to dismiss it. But eventually when it starts affecting them and their families, maybe losing a job, a child not being able to get a foreign uni place, perhaps the treatment on the U.S.N.H.S is too expensive and their granddaughter suffers more than she would have had to.
They may start to realise what they have done then.

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I'm.going to disappoint you here - I agree Brexit will hurt the UK economy, I've agreed that a number of times on here BUT I believe in the long run the UK will be better off outside the EU. Thus my children will be better off because of it.

There I've not dimissed it

And here is this week's positive manufacturing news. See you next week

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[tweet]1090679003831300096[/tweet]

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[tweet]1090380445513146368[/tweet]

Westdene Seagull said:

I'm.going to disappoint you here - I agree Brexit will hurt the UK economy, I've agreed that a number of times on here BUT I believe in the long run the UK will be better off outside the EU. Thus my children will be better off because of it.

There I've not dimissed it

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Ah, the other one “itll Be worth it in the long run”. It won’t. Once these industries go, they don’t come back.

cunning fergus said:

I fear it is likely to be a fudge that can give flexibility to both sides, but won’t resolve the essential underlying issues. Everyone claims victory and nothing really changes.

That would be straight out of the Euro crisis playbook, page 1, chapter 1, sub section 1.01.

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I guess that’s a possibility but:

1. We’ve had two and a half years and no ones suggested a ‘fudge’ that remotely satisfies both sides;
2. You haven’t really answered my question of what other possible compromises exist. It’s probably because in reality such compromises do not exist.

I really fear a no deal brexit now. Not only have I had rights stripped from me that I have held from birth but I am now going to be faced with huge uncertainty to my private life, my business is likely to take a hit and that’s just when I’m selfish and think of myself. I don’t forsee the socialist future you hope for but one where the poorest become poorer and the rich increase their grip on a divide and fractured country that I feel (sometime) has changed beyond recognition from the one I grew up in.

cunning fergus said:

As I say this board is soaking in Tories.

PS you don’t know what I do for a living, all the innuendo from you and your fellow travellers on this thread about me is flattering but a bit in the style of the classic box room furious masturbator.

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Interesting how everyone on this board is a Tory except you.

I think a few had a good idea about what you did for a living before you told us about your very intimate working knowledge of the regulation of financial markets and firms that operate within it.

As my old friend Neil E at Hewlett Packard used to say 'It's very easy for someone to pontificate about their socialist principles, when being supported by regular significant sums from a Capitalist Multi-million pound Multi-national'. Or maybe that was Confucius

Rodney Thomas said:

I guess that’s a possibility but:

1. We’ve had two and a half years and no ones suggested a ‘fudge’ that remotely satisfies both sides;
2. You haven’t really answered my question of what other possible compromises exist. It’s probably because in reality such compromises do not exist.

I really fear a no deal brexit now. Not only have I had rights stripped from me that I have held from birth but I am now going to be faced with huge uncertainty to my private life, my business is likely to take a hit and that’s just when I’m selfish and think of myself. I don’t forsee the socialist future you hope for but one where the poorest become poorer and the rich increase their grip on a divide and fractured country that I feel (sometime) has changed beyond recognition from the one I grew up in.

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We were confirmed yesterday that we are having our hours cut. I’m losing £216 a month, flat out. That’s almost £2’600 a year which is a massive chunk of our disposable income. Luckily I can pretty much make it up in overtime but working 12.5 hour shifts , at night in a very volatile environment I really don’t enjoy overtime. I need my rest and I need time away from the dangerous , stressful environment.
So I’ll be working more hours for less money than I’m on now.
And at a time when the cost of living is soaring.

Thanks leave voters. I’ll look forward to picking up my hours again “in the long run”.
You have no idea what you have done to the people of Britain.

Cost to economy of Brexit is £7+ a minute. £60 billion since the referendum.

https://costofbrexit.netlify.com/

For those doubting the figures, take note, they have been worked out by the Bank of little ENGLAND.

The issue I can't understand is :

- *No deal* means no backstop.

- Supposedly the UK wants the deal with no backstop attached.

- The EU doesn't want the deal with no backstop.


So logically there is no way for the EU to get a backstop... deal or *no deal*.

Why not have a deal without a backstop given there can be no backstop ?


So the EU is waiting for the UK to cave - which it won't as *no deal* is an acceptable outcome for the ones pulling the strings, indeed maybe the plan anyway.

The Clamp said:

We were confirmed yesterday that we are having our hours cut. I’m losing £216 a month, flat out. That’s almost £2’600 a year which is a massive chunk of our disposable income. Luckily I can pretty much make it up in overtime but working 12.5 hour shifts , at night in a very volatile environment I really don’t enjoy overtime. I need my rest and I need time away from the dangerous , stressful environment.
So I’ll be working more hours for less money than I’m on now.
And at a time when the cost of living is soaring.

Thanks leave voters. I’ll look forward to picking up my hours again “in the long run”.
You have no idea what you have done to the people of Britain.

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Oooooh the drama.





On our way.

The Clamp said:

We were confirmed yesterday that we are having our hours cut. I’m losing £216 a month, flat out. That’s almost £2’600 a year which is a massive chunk of our disposable income. Luckily I can pretty much make it up in overtime but working 12.5 hour shifts , at night in a very volatile environment I really don’t enjoy overtime. I need my rest and I need time away from the dangerous , stressful environment.
So I’ll be working more hours for less money than I’m on now.
And at a time when the cost of living is soaring.

Thanks leave voters. I’ll look forward to picking up my hours again “in the long run”.
You have no idea what you have done to the people of Britain.

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Why have they cut your hours?

Blue Valkyrie said:

The issue I can't understand is :

- *No deal* means no backstop.

- Supposedly the UK wants the deal with no backstop attached.

- The EU doesn't want the deal with no backstop.


So logically there is no way for the EU to get a backstop... deal or *no deal*.

Why not have a deal without a backstop given there can be no backstop ?


So the EU is waiting for the UK to cave - which it won't as *no deal* is an acceptable outcome for the ones pulling the strings, indeed maybe the plan anyway.

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The EU have always assumed that as we were never in a position to go for no deal and that we as a country have always prided ourselves on our international reputation and treaty commitments, such as The Good Friday Agreement and signing up to and agreeing to the backstop in the first place to protect things like that, we wouldn't for a second follow through on it.

The fatal error the EU made was that although they knew they were not dealing with an equal partner, they thought they were dealing with a relatively sane, if embarrassing one, not a basket-case. No deal and the pariah status it'll bring this country will have ramifications for years as we attempt to salvage our international reputation, never mind healing the bad blood from the global damage caused. Who'll be able to ever truly trust the English ever again?

Westdene Seagull said:

I'm.going to disappoint you here - I agree Brexit will hurt the UK economy, I've agreed that a number of times on here BUT I believe in the long run the UK will be better off outside the EU. Thus my children will be better off because of it.

There I've not dimissed it

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Consistent and honest.

Just 2 little follow-up questions if I may?

1. when?
2. how?

knocky1 said:

Cost to economy of Brexit is £7+ a minute. £60 billion since the referendum.

https://costofbrexit.netlify.com/

For those doubting the figures, take note, they have been worked out by the Bank of little ENGLAND.

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just because they say its based off BoE estimates, doesnt make it so. to qualify this, if we really had the originally projected growth, our economy would be growing faster than Germany - do you believe that?

Blue Valkyrie said:

The issue I can't understand is :

- *No deal* means no backstop.

- Supposedly the UK wants the deal with no backstop attached.

- The EU doesn't want the deal with no backstop.


So logically there is no way for the EU to get a backstop... deal or *no deal*.

Why not have a deal without a backstop given there can be no backstop ?


So the EU is waiting for the UK to cave - which it won't as *no deal* is an acceptable outcome for the ones pulling the strings, indeed maybe the plan anyway.

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You are missing the fact that the EU has a commitment to "one of their own" in Ireland. They can't hang Ireland out to dry over a non member state. If there's a no deal and a hard boarder, that the UK's fault.

Rodney Thomas said:

You are missing the fact that the EU has a commitment to "one of their own" in Ireland. They can't hang Ireland out to dry over a non member state. If there's a no deal and a hard boarder, that the UK's fault.

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Good point.

cunning fergus said:

There’s a lot of ground to cover in your post I doubt I can do it justice, so here goes.

1) The EU is an uber capitalist project, always was and always will be, I know you don’t want to accept that fact, but a fact it is. Ergo supporters of the project are either, Tories, crypto Tories or at best neoliberals which are deconstructed Tories. I have been banned from this thread for upsetting some of the shrill sensitive types on here for maintaining that position, but save a continual stream of personal attacks no one has been able to dispel the fact that the EU isn’t a capitalist Tory inspired project.

2) As per 1) you want to remain because you think the EU is less Tory than the EU........and you accuse me of ignorance.

3) what a miserable joyless type you must be, you could come back with something more witty than that can you? Land of my fathers......listen to yourself. Why do you even care about this storm in a teacup.

4) as per 1) the EU is all about the money, and the EU Parliament et al is merely the gossamer thin veil that conceals it’s black foul Tory monetarist heart. No deal will create problems all over the EU and UK but specifically in Ireland, so the EU is only as strong as its weakest point. If Ireland is subjected to deprivation as a consequence of political intransigence by the EU then the whole project could be dead in the water. This is epoch changing moment for the EU and would propel Brexit to the front of the EUs problems.

Brexit and the Irish birder is not yet it’s biggest problem, an economic crisis is, and holding the back stop line could create the conditions for that.

The EU Parliament elections happen in May, a continuing crisis in Ireland, coupled with economic damage compounded by the ongoing problems in France, Germany and Italy will not bode well for pro EU parties.

So, in my opinion, the EU has more to lose in playing fast and lose with Brexit, so I think there will be a deal as oppose to no deal. You may of course end up being right, but you can’t say (yet) that I’m wrong.

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So you've responded as to why you think it's ok to call anyone a Tory who doesn't agree with you over Brexit and picking up on my point about your attitude towards anyone who uses the word father instead of dad. If you don't like someone picking you up on it, then don't do it in the first place. Play the ball, not the man. You know nothing about ManOfSussex

Back to the matter in hand. You've justified your position on whether a deal is possible by deciding the EU is an "uber capitalist" project. That in itself is flawed. It is undoubtedly a project designed to promote trade across democratic European countries, but if it was "uber capitalist" there would be no pan-Europe social charter in place and there would be considerably less regulation in force. You'll doubtless respond with some tenuous link, perhaps a quote from the 1950s from a Freedman-esque think tank, or maybe some chippy Thatcher quote from the 80s, but none of that proves you're right. But give it a go if you want, but you'll only force me to respond by trawling the internet for some more left-leaning influence that proves my point that your "uber capitalist project" assertion is complete nonsense.

And amusingly, you haven't done any "justice" to my very specific point with regard to the Irish border beyond "there will be a deal because of those pesky money grabbing capitalists". It doesn't actually bear any relation to the facts though, does it? There is no deal to be done unless either the UK or EU remove their red lines.

I'm calling it now, we're heading for a no-deal Brexit and here is why:

1) for the reasons outlined in my prior post (the 3 planks for a frictionless border), a hard border is impossible without staying within the customs union, the common market and accepting jurisdiction from a pan-European court. We could have a more soft border (a border only applying to trade vehicles) by removing ourselves from the customs union, because that would at least maintain free movement across the border.

It's common sense. The British government can make stupid noises all it likes about keeping the border open from our side, and it's the EU's problem if they want a border. That is bollocks. What exactly do you think our government would do about wholesale smuggling across the border of, say, petrol if we ramped up our prices and they didn't? Or literally any other product? They'd put a border in and then shout "but but but it's not our fault, blame the smugglers". To which anyone who had an ounce of realism would say back to them "No f*cking shit Sherlock. You didn't want to put up a border, but here's why you were talking bollox"

And obviously, you've done absolutely nothing to debunk these cold hard facts, because you can't. And those facts are far less arguable than your "fact" that the EU is an "uber capitalist project", which amounts to "it's a fact because I say so, and anyone who disagrees is a Tory".

2) Once again, our parliament have f*cked it right up. You can almost tell this because the Daily Mail have presented it as a big success. Basically, they've voted down the idea of extending the time frame for invoking article 50, but have also insisted no deal is off the table. Unfortunately, that second one is non-binding so when the clock ticks down to 29th March with no deal done, we might get 6 weeks gratis from the EU to sort our shit out, but basically we'll be out.

I'm a remainer but as I've said, on balance I think I just want us out as painlessly as possible now. That should have meant a 6 month extension on A50, going back to renegotiate with some red lines on both sides removed. NI HAS to stay in the EU, possibly Scotland too, but the EU probably need to recognise RoI's as a special case - something like allowing the UK to check UK non-UK/RoI citizens at RoI's borders with the UK reciprocating to RoI border control.

And then once people have died as a direct consequence of Brexit in the short term because we are so inadequately prepared for no deal (missing medicines, dodgy meat in the food chain, rising energy prices, that sort of thing) and our economy slows to alarming levels as it surely will, we can finally start the 10 year campaign to get back into the EU or at least having access to the common market. Obviously we'll have to hope Ireland hasn't joined Schengen (or we'll have to too), and we will have to give up the £ (and who knows, maybe part-sovereignty of Gibraltar?), but it'll either be that or the erosion of industry all over the country. Meanwhile, NI and Scotland will be chuntering away about independence, all thanks to the Conservative and Unionist party playing popularist politics and running off when the going gets tough.

Blue Valkyrie said:

The issue I can't understand is :

- *No deal* means no backstop.

- Supposedly the UK wants the deal with no backstop attached.

- The EU doesn't want the deal with no backstop.


So logically there is no way for the EU to get a backstop... deal or *no deal*.

Why not have a deal without a backstop given there can be no backstop ?


So the EU is waiting for the UK to cave - which it won't as *no deal* is an acceptable outcome for the ones pulling the strings, indeed maybe the plan anyway.

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quite. except the backstop is artificial, its a condition that came about to solve a problem, which can be reframed or redefined at their choice.

beorhthelm said:

quite. except the backstop is artificial, its a condition that came about to solve a problem, which can be reframed or redefined at their choice.

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Said like a true, smug little English Brexiteer blaming it all on The EU again.

Rodney Thomas said:

You are missing the fact that the EU has a commitment to "one of their own" in Ireland. They can't hang Ireland out to dry over a non member state. If there's a no deal and a hard boarder, that the UK's fault.

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no deal and blaming the UK for the outcome wont actually help the Irish.