[Politics] Brexit

Baldseagull · Feb 7, 2019

ManOfSussex said:
Never mind the economic fallout for both sides in a no deal, the problem would be the political, social, reputational and diplomatic bad blood and damage we're going to cause for ourselves. It'll take more than a generation to repair it because we'll be held in complete and utter contempt.

If it happens, it could be the moment that snaps some of the leave supporters out of their trance. There was quite a big moment for the Trump enchanted yesterday, many of his supporters got their tax bills and were not pleased.
My reckoning is that those most enchanted with Leave, believe that it will be good for them, even if it is bad for the country as a whole, when it becomes apparent that they get screwed too, they might have to admit they were conned at last. There is a selfishness about the leave proposition and it's supporters, I don't think there is as much will to struggle personally for the greater good as they like to make out.

Baldseagull · Feb 7, 2019

ManOfSussex said:
Never mind the economic fallout for both sides in a no deal, the problem would be the political, social, reputational and diplomatic bad blood and damage we're going to cause for ourselves. It'll take more than a generation to repair it because we'll be held in complete and utter contempt.

Bloody dangerous game to play. David Davis is confident the EU will "stop the clock" if it gets to 10.55 on the 29th March and we are still talking deals with them, I hope he and others realise that the EU stopping the clock won't stop the Withdrawal Act deadline, not without some action, that will have to be taken sooner.

Sorry, was a reply to Watford really.

Bold Seagull · Feb 7, 2019

Bloodyhell, twitter alive with Tory-Labour mini coalitions forming around a customs union Brexit. Perhaps some good may come of this? Will party divides turn into cross party alliance? I doubt it, but still, let’s try to look for silver linings.

Lincoln Imp · Feb 7, 2019

Not easy I know but it would be game-changing if the EU could unilaterally announce that the UK could rejoin the EU on current terms at any point up to the end of a transition period. On Brexit Day + 1there would be nothing the UK government could do to to stop such an offer.

Public opinion is already shifting towards Remain (according to Yougov) and it will surely shift radically over the coming two years as it becomes clear that the upsides of Brexit are imaginary and the downsides are real.

Pretty Plnk Fairy · Feb 7, 2019

Lincoln Imp said:
Not easy I know but it would be game-changing if the EU could unilaterally announce that the UK could rejoin the EU on current terms at any point up to the end of a transition period. On Brexit Day + 1there would be nothing the UK government could do to to stop such an offer.

Public opinion is already shifting towards Remain (according to Yougov) and it will surely shift radically over the coming two years as it becomes clear that the upsides of Brexit are imaginary and the downsides are real.

nothing wrong with imaginery as where do you think all my friends come from

Regards
DR

ManOfSussex · Feb 7, 2019

Bold Seagull said:
Bloodyhell, twitter alive with Tory-Labour mini coalitions forming around a customs union Brexit. Perhaps some good may come of this? Will party divides turn into cross party alliance? I doubt it, but still, let’s try to look for silver linings.

Sinn Fein did not hold back in their meeting with May yesterday and told her some uncomfortable home truths apparently. Tusk's remarks yesterday next to Varadkar also name checked both her and Corbyn. He's now reportedly getting real pressure put on him from the Irish Labour Party, the SDLP, Fianna Fail as well as Sinn Fein. Simon Coveney is currently in Washington meeting the 'Friends of Ireland' on Capitol Hill - Ultimately The Good Friday Agreement is at risk here unless we back down and get real.

Stat Brother · Feb 7, 2019

Bold Seagull said:
Bloodyhell, twitter alive with Tory-Labour mini coalitions forming around a customs union Brexit. Perhaps some good may come of this? Will party divides turn into cross party alliance? I doubt it, but still, let’s try to look for silver linings.

I do hope today you're not using any heavy machinery or for that matter drawing any straight lines.

As you, my friend, are clearly off your face.

A1X · Feb 7, 2019

[TWEET]1093421121502961664[/TWEET]

Baldseagull · Feb 7, 2019

Lincoln Imp said:
Not easy I know but it would be game-changing if the EU could unilaterally announce that the UK could rejoin the EU on current terms at any point up to the end of a transition period. On Brexit Day + 1there would be nothing the UK government could do to to stop such an offer.

Public opinion is already shifting towards Remain (according to Yougov) and it will surely shift radically over the coming two years as it becomes clear that the upsides of Brexit are imaginary and the downsides are real.

It wouldn't work, any member state could object and so not a promise the EU could make, if we have actually left.
It would be nice to have that option, but the only way it can be retained after March 29th is if we extend or revoke A50.

Publius Ovidius · Feb 7, 2019

Can someone who hasn't an axe to grind please explain.

If there is a deal that ties us to a customs union, like now, does that mean that we will not be allowed to make deals with countries outside the EU?

Also if there is a customs union, does that mean there is no point in an Irish border as goods will flow as they do now though Europe.

If those things are yes, then for all those who voted out, are we saying that actually the only positive thing to come out of this is a restriction of migration as presumably being In a customs union will mean we are still subject to EU trade laws without actually being able to vote on them?

Is that what people voted for?

WATFORD zero · Feb 7, 2019

Publius Ovidius said:
Can someone who hasn't an axe to grind please explain.

If there is a deal that ties us to a customs union, like now, does that mean that we will not be allowed to make deals with countries outside the EU?

Also if there is a customs union, does that mean there is no point in an Irish border as goods will flow as they do now though Europe.

If those things are yes, then for all those who voted out, are we saying that actually the only positive thing to come out of this is a restriction of migration as presumably being In a customs union will mean we are still subject to EU trade laws without actually being able to vote on them?

Is that what people voted for?

There is THE customs union, which is the current EU one. Staying in that means no Irish border, trade similar to current and we can't make deals outside of the EU. (Membership of the single market means you can make deals with other countries outside the EU, but that requires borders - see Switzerland).

Early on, there was talk about A customs union, which was going to be a new one negotiated between the EU and Britain (and i guess would be completely open to negotiation) but that hasn't been mentioned lately.

And it's not necessarily a restriction of migration, because it depends on whether Britain implements what is available after leaving. There are various methods of restricting migration currently within the EU, none of which the British Government has decided to implement, for economic reasons.

The 'backstop' which is taking so much time and resource at the moment, is simply a method of plunging onwards whilst putting back any awkward decision on the NI/Ireland border by another 2 years.

I wouldn't dream of trying to guess what Leave voters were voting for, I'll leave that for someone else to answer :angel:

Triggaaar · Feb 7, 2019

Baldseagull said:
It wouldn't work, any member state could object and so not a promise the EU could make, if we have actually left.

Could they not vote on it now, and agree a period (eg, 1 month) which the UK could rejoin on current terms, agreeing to waive any veto during that period? Legally, I can't see why not.

surrey jim · Feb 7, 2019

What are the current odds / how do the bookies think this will end? *I assume bookies provide odds on this, Im on a work laptop and cant access gambing sites to check.

1) Leave no deal
2) Deal to be in place
3) A50 extended
4) A50 revoked

Jackthelad · Feb 7, 2019

ManOfSussex said:
Sinn Fein did not hold back in their meeting with May yesterday and told her some uncomfortable home truths apparently. Tusk's remarks yesterday next to Varadkar also name checked both her and Corbyn. He's now reportedly getting real pressure put on him from the Irish Labour Party, the SDLP, Fianna Fail as well as Sinn Fein. Simon Coveney is currently in Washington meeting the 'Friends of Ireland' on Capitol Hill - Ultimately The Good Friday Agreement is at risk here unless we back down and get real.

Sinn Fein telling truths, is that even possible with them.

Triggaaar · Feb 7, 2019

Publius Ovidius said:
Is that what people voted for?

People voted for a variety of reasons (whichever way they voted). Anyone saying otherwise is talking shit. For those who voted out, reasons will include racism, wanting to reduce immigration, wanting to stop sending money to the EU (so it can't be spent on the NHS), dislike of the EU and the way they treat the UK, wanting to ensure we're not part of ever closer union, etc.

Triggaaar · Feb 7, 2019

surrey jim said:
What are the current odds / how do the bookies think this will end? *I assume bookies provide odds on this, Im on a work laptop and cant access gambing sites to check.

1) Leave no deal

2-1.

Oddschecker aren't showing the others you asked about.

ManOfSussex · Feb 7, 2019

Jackthelad said:
Sinn Fein telling truths, is that even possible with them.

It's 2019, not 1989, until Brexit happened the world had moved on a bit.

beorhthelm · Feb 7, 2019

WATFORD zero said:
There is THE customs union, which is the current EU one. Staying in that means no Irish border, trade similar to current and we can only make deals where the EU hasn't (AFAIK we can currently make deals with other countries outside the EU as long as the EU doesn't already have one, or negotiating one).

Early on, there was talk about A customs union, which was going to be a new one negotiated between the EU and Britain (and i guess would be completely open to negotiation) but that hasn't been mentioned lately.

"a" customs union was talked about as it was Corbyn/McDonnell's strategy, deliberately and carefully saying they wanted to remain in "a" customs union as an way to appear to appease everyone.

ManOfSussex · Feb 7, 2019

Triggaaar said:
Why would there be a restriction of migration? To be in the customs union, the EU insist there is also free movement.

We wouldn't remain in the European customs union, as that's only available to member states. We'd only be in 'a' negotiated customs union, as per Turkey, in which free movement isn't insisted upon, it's negotiable.

Triggaaar · Feb 7, 2019

ManOfSussex said:
We wouldn't remain in the European customs union, as that's only available to member states.

Thanks.

We'd only be in 'a' negotiated customs union, as per Turkey, in which free movement isn't insisted upon, it's negotiable.

Are there any examples of countries that have completely free trade with the EU (including services) who don't also have free movement with the EU?

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