[Politics] Brexit

beorhthelm · Feb 9, 2018

Gwylan said:
Not quite true. Gove has already said that farming subsidies would continue, as before, at least up till the next election. However, I can't see a Tory government meeting EU commitments to spend in Labour-voting areas like the north or Wales but I imagine Cornwall may see a few bribes, er I mean, financial commitments for infrastructure projects.

forgot about Gove. people dont seem to like him but he gets shit done, something sorely lacking in the rest of this episode, and politics in general for at least a decade. i think if the policy is based on centralise funding schemes (as it is with current agri-subsidy) there's not alot of scope for favoring or unfavouring one region over another. and remember, rural communities and especially land owning farmers are generally Conservatives. the problems arise when it comes to cherry picking cities or schemes, there is something to be said for the remoteness of Brussels dishing out the cash as they are so removed they arent interested in local political leanings, only promoting their own agendas.

Papa Lazarou · Feb 9, 2018

Giraffe said:
I've not really followed this thread if truth be told.

But anyone think we should have just said we don't want a deal EU and left it for a year or so to see how hard they begged?

Isn't that basically where we ended up anyway?

Giraffe · Feb 9, 2018

Papa Lazarou said:
Isn't that basically where we ended up anyway?

Well no, as it stands we are offering them £40billion for a deal. I'd have offered them nothing and walked away from the start. At least then we would have two years of planning for post EU. Then if a deal was done it would only be upside and we wouldn't be so hamstrung in making trade deals with others.

beorhthelm · Feb 9, 2018

Giraffe said:
I've not really followed this thread if truth be told.

But anyone think we should have just said we don't want a deal EU and left it for a year or so to see how hard they begged?

funny thing is, this would have been the genuine "hard brexit" option and not one politician I've heard ever suggested it. there was always an assumption we'd negotiate an exit, rather than leave then negotiate new relationship.

Giraffe · Feb 9, 2018

beorhthelm said:
funny thing is, this would have been the genuine "hard brexit" option and not one politician I've heard ever suggested it. there was always an assumption we'd negotiate an exit, rather than leave then negotiate new relationship.

I really don't think there is such a thing as hard or soft Brexit. it is just Brexit.

It has been very clear from day one that the EU had more to lose than us, and therefore actively going for no deal would have seen the boot on the other foot. May has been scared into a poor negotiating position by remainer led civil servants forecasting gloom again.

Garry Nelson's teacher · Feb 9, 2018

Giraffe said:
I really don't think there is such a thing as hard or soft Brexit. it is just Brexit.

It has been very clear from day one that the EU had more to lose than us, and therefore actively going for no deal would have seen the boot on the other foot. May has been scared into a poor negotiating position by remainer led civil servants forecasting gloom again.

It could well be, my friend, that the civil servants have access to rather more sophisticated data on trade than you do. I think your strategy, whilst admirably clear, might attract the descriptors 'chaotic' and 'disastrous'.

Garry Nelson's teacher · Feb 9, 2018

beorhthelm said:
forgot about Gove. people dont seem to like him but he gets shit done, something sorely lacking in the rest of this episode, and politics in general for at least a decade. i think if the policy is based on centralise funding schemes (as it is with current agri-subsidy) there's not alot of scope for favoring or unfavouring one region over another. and remember, rural communities and especially land owning farmers are generally Conservatives. the problems arise when it comes to cherry picking cities or schemes, there is something to be said for the remoteness of Brussels dishing out the cash as they are so removed they arent interested in local political leanings, only promoting their own agendas.

Totally agree with you on Gove; he certainly 'gets shit done'. For example he did Boris.

Papa Lazarou · Feb 9, 2018

How has the EU, all 27 countries got more to lose from Brexit than we have? I'm stunned.

beorhthelm · Feb 9, 2018

Garry Nelson's teacher said:
It could well be, my friend, that the civil servants have access to rather more sophisticated data on trade than you do.

its not a matter of access to data though is it? anyone can access the ONS data and that of various industry bodies, its down to the interpretation, analysis applied subjectively. like using gravity models that are inherently bias to local trading, or assuming full tariffs permissible applied to imports. if you ignore any possible upsides in the analysis, guess you will find only a negative outcome.

Ernest · Feb 9, 2018

Interesting at Barnier's press conference now saying a transition period is not a given if the government carry on as they are doing

Ernest · Feb 9, 2018

[tweet]961932428448329728[/tweet]

Kinky Gerbil · Feb 9, 2018

Ernest said:
[tweet]961932428448329728[/tweet]

Operation try to blame to woeful negotiations on the EU is well underway

Garry Nelson's teacher · Feb 9, 2018

beorhthelm said:
its not a matter of access to data though is it? anyone can access the ONS data and that of various industry bodies, its down to the interpretation, analysis applied subjectively. like using gravity models that are inherently bias to local trading, or assuming full tariffs permissible applied to imports. if you ignore any possible upsides in the analysis, guess you will find only a negative outcome.

I think you've got a point. But where are the alternative models, projections and scenarios? Other than Patrick Minford (about whom it is kinder to say nothing) I don't know of anything out there? Occasionally Jacob Rees Mogg will utter something vaguely optimistic about cheap food imports which will help the poor post Brexit but the there's only really one show in town when it comes to forecasting - and I'm afraid it doesn't make for very comforting viewing. Meanwhile some of the Leavers still re-cycle the myth that the EU has more to lose than UK and I thought we'd at least moved on from that by now. So I think the ball is in the court of the Brexiteers: what are the 'upsides' and is the case for them more convincing and compelling than the 'downsides'?

pastafarian · Feb 9, 2018

Lincoln Imp said:
I support what you say. The politeness you mention is something worth preserving. Wouldn't you agree?

In the context of public speaking and debating in a question time audience or university lecture hall or a commons select committee, certainly. No one likes the mentally challenged balaclava brigade approach do they, except other childish nutters of course.
Certain other places you have to be a bit more argumentative, speakers corner, PMQ`s,NSC :lolol:

Garry Nelson's teacher · Feb 9, 2018

Kinky Gerbils said:
Operation try to blame to woeful negotiations on the EU is well underway

I think it is been clear to many from day 1 that Davis is not the man for the job. Mind you, as it's a well nigh impossible job I'm not sure who would be much better.

daveinprague · Feb 9, 2018

Kinky Gerbils said:
Operation try to blame to woeful negotiations on the EU is well underway

Whenever I think about negotiations, i always think of this picture. One side seems prepared...the other...not so much.

pastafarian · Feb 9, 2018

Ernest said:
Interesting at Barnier's press conference now saying a transition period is not a given if the government carry on as they are doing

Barnier also said "I am surprised by these disagreements"................really? He is surprised at disagreements during a negotiation.
Time the EU binned this tool and replaced him with someone who knows what they are doing........ he is utterly clueless. Berlusconi is looking for a new job, even he cant possibly be more of an idiot that Barnier.

daveinprague · Feb 9, 2018

Yeah, its the EU's fault that the British government is a huge cluster****.who seem unable to agree among themselves.

Kinky Gerbil · Feb 9, 2018

pastafarian said:
Barnier also said "I am surprised by these disagreements"................really? He is surprised at disagreements during a negotiation.
Time the EU binned this tool and replaced him with someone who knows what they are doing........ he is utterly clueless. Berlusconi is looking for a new job, even he cant possibly be more of an idiot that Barnier.

So clueless the UK cave in with every request.

pastafarian · Feb 9, 2018

Kinky Gerbils said:
So clueless the UK cave in with every request.

Interesting the EU still want UK nationals already living in the EU to have their freedom of movement rights taken away and have them landlocked to the country they will be residing in on Brexit day. Wonder who will win that one.

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