Most Labour/Tory English regions?

SeagullofMalaysia

Well-known member

Jan 29, 2016

1,948

Somewhere in north Malaysia

• May 13, 2016

• #1

I know that Scotland is SNP heaven, Wales is a Plaid Cymru-Labour tossup and Northern Ireland is probably Ulster Unionist. So how Tory/Labour are English regions? I'd imagine SW England as a LibDem-Tory marginal region, for example

 

nicko31

Well-known member

Jan 7, 2010

17,575

Gods country fortnightly

• May 13, 2016

• #2

Essex, closest to UKIP as you can get

 

Arthur

Well-known member

Jul 8, 2003

8,567

Buxted Harbour

• May 13, 2016

• #3

SeagullofMalaysia said:

I know that Scotland is SNP heaven, Wales is a Plaid Cymru-Labour tossup and Northern Ireland is probably Ulster Unionist. So how Tory/Labour are English regions? I'd imagine SW England as a LibDem-Tory marginal region, for example

Click to expand...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11584325/full-results-map-uk-2015.html

 

Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park

NSC Patron

Apr 5, 2014

23,540

• May 13, 2016

• #4

SeagullofMalaysia said:

I know that Scotland is SNP heaven, Wales is a Plaid Cymru-Labour tossup and Northern Ireland is probably Ulster Unionist. So how Tory/Labour are English regions? I'd imagine SW England as a LibDem-Tory marginal region, for example

Click to expand...

Labour tend to win more urban seats the further north of the London and away from the home counties you go. South of the Thames, excepting London itself, they have very few seats.

The Tories totally control the shire seats, including in places like North Yorkshire and Cumbria and East Anglia.

The assumption that the wealthier you are the more like you will vote Tory is undeniably true. The battle ground is normally won and lost with the urban middle-classes. Think of Watford as the perfect 'bellwether' marginal.

 

Titanic

Super Moderator

Helpful Moderator

Jul 5, 2003

39,070

West Sussex

• May 13, 2016

• #5

<deleted the wrong map>

 

Last edited: May 13, 2016

Titanic

Super Moderator

Helpful Moderator

Jul 5, 2003

39,070

West Sussex

• May 13, 2016

• #6

 

Sorrel

Well-known member

Jul 5, 2003

2,744

Back in East Sussex

• May 13, 2016

• #7

Titanic said:

Click to expand...

Wrong map. This is the one from 2015:

 

Titanic

Super Moderator

Helpful Moderator

Jul 5, 2003

39,070

West Sussex

• May 13, 2016

• #8

Sorrel said:

Wrong map. This is the one from 2015:

Click to expand...

Indeed... it actually looks more like the position before the 2015 election (so basically the result from 2010 with a few by-elections). Far too may LibDems to be post 2015

 

glasfryn

cleaning up cat sick

Nov 29, 2005

20,261

somewhere in Eastbourne

• May 13, 2016

• #9

Basically the lib-dem vote failed in the south-west and they voted tory

 

Titanic

Super Moderator

Helpful Moderator

Jul 5, 2003

39,070

West Sussex

• May 13, 2016

• #10

glasfryn said:

Basically the lib-dem vote failed in the south-west and they voted tory

Click to expand...

and in Scotland and they voted SNP. Anything but Miliband.

 

C

Cian

Well-known member

Jul 16, 2003

14,262

Dublin, Ireland

• May 13, 2016

• #11

SeagullofMalaysia said:

I know that Scotland is SNP heaven, Wales is a Plaid Cymru-Labour tossup and Northern Ireland is probably Ulster Unionist. So how Tory/Labour are English regions? I'd imagine SW England as a LibDem-Tory marginal region, for example

Click to expand...

The traditional Ulster Unionist, as in the party with that name, are nearly gone in NI - although they did regain seats from 0 to 2 at the last Wesminster elections.

Bulk votes DUP now, certain areas vote SF and a much smaller subset of areas vote SDLP. You can basically take the current seats and use them to predict the next election bar one!

 

Lord Bracknell

On fire

Jul 5, 2003

39,499

104 Upper Grosvenor Street, Mayfair

• May 13, 2016

• #12

Cian said:

The traditional Ulster Unionist, as in the party with that name, are nearly gone in NI - although they did regain seats from 0 to 2 at the last Wesminster elections.

Bulk votes DUP now, certain areas vote SF and a much smaller subset of areas vote SDLP. You can basically take the current seats and use them to predict the next election bar one!

Click to expand...

At the recent Assembly elections, the biggest share of the vote in West Belfast went to the People Before Profit Alliance, an off-shoot of the Socialist Workers Party. They also won a seat in the Foyle constituency.

 

T

TheJasperCo

Well-known member

Jan 20, 2012

4,594

Exeter

• May 13, 2016

• #13

I'm from one of the safest Tory seats in the country (i.e. stick a blue rosette on a pig and it would get elected).

I now live and study in one of the safest Labour constituencies in the country (i.e. stick a red rose on Jimmy Savile and he'd wind up in the House of Commons faster than you can say "Golly, I swear I thought she was 16, honest guv!")

 

C

Cian

Well-known member

Jul 16, 2003

14,262

Dublin, Ireland

• May 14, 2016

• #14

Lord Bracknell said:

At the recent Assembly elections, the biggest share of the vote in West Belfast went to the People Before Profit Alliance, an off-shoot of the Socialist Workers Party. They also won a seat in the Foyle constituency.

Click to expand...

Neither have even the vaguest chance of being repeated at Westminster though. Ditto the Greens two seats, the TUV seat etc. Its the southern SWP not the UK one at that, although it can be fairly hard to tell the difference!

The only seat realistically in contention - unless there is a shock - is Fermanagh South Tyrone. Which has moved between a unionist and a nationalist MP multiple times and current benefits from an agreement to run a concensus unionist candidate. I could easily see either no agreement next time, or a matching agreement from the other side.

Sylvia Hermon will also want to retire at some point, which will throw that seat open to either the DUP or UUP (the total nationalist vote was about 600 last time) and that would then leave what are probably fairly ingrained party rather than personality seats.