The curse of third

From Sky Sports. Sorry if fixtures.

Brighton finished third in the Championship this season
Should Brighton, Walsall and Accrington Stanley be wary of the play-offs after missing out on automatic promotion on the final day of the season?

Brighton and Walsall finished third in the Championship and League One respectively while Accrington ended up fourth in League Two - where there are three automatic promotion places.

The trio will now enter the play-offs as the highest-ranked teams in their respective divisions, but is that a positive?

Since the introduction of the play-offs in 1987 there have been several examples of teams missing out on promotion after finishing well ahead of their rivals in the regular season.

In recent years, Watford, Nottingham Forest and Ipswich have failed to win promotion after finishing third in the Championship.

Highlights of the clash for promotion between Middlesbrough and Brighton
Highlights of the clash for promotion between Middlesbrough and Brighton
Sheffield United failed to make it up from League One in 2011/12 after finishing on 90 points, nine clear of Huddersfield in fourth and 17 clear of sixth-placed Stevenage.

But is it really a 'curse' to finish in third? The stats suggest otherwise.

In fact, 39.50% of the teams that have finished in the top play-off place across the three divisions have been promoted.

Only 21% of teams in the second play-off spot have been successful while those in the bottom two places go up 19.80% of the time.

Positions of teams promoted in play-offs

Position Championship League One League Two Total Percentage
3rd (4th in L2) 10 9 13 32 39.50%
4th (5th in L2) 5 7 5 17 21%
5th (6th in L2) 7 5 4 16 19.80%
6th (7th in L2) 5 6 5 16 19.80%
Brighton, who finished 15 points ahead of sixth-placed Sheffield Wednesday, should be buoyed by the fact that 37% of the sides who have finished third in the Championship have gone up.

In comparison, those finishing fourth (18.50%), fifth (25.90%) and sixth (18.50%) have not fared as well.

Norwich, West Ham and Swansea have won promotion to the Premier League in recent seasons after ending up third in the second tier.

Where have Championship play-off winners finished in table?

Position Total Percentage
3rd (Brighton this season) 10 37%
4th (Hull this season) 5 18.50%
5th (Derby this season) 7 25.90%
6th (Sheff Wed this season) 5 18.50%
In League One, where Walsall finished third this season, the play-offs have proved more unpredictable.

Teams in third have gone up 33.30% of the time, a slightly better success rate than those in fourth (25.90%), fifth (18.50%) and sixth (22.20%).

But Accrington have more reason to be cheerful. Almost half (48.10%) of the teams that have finished fourth in League Two have gone up through the play-offs.

Walsall thumped Port Vale on the final day but still missed out on second place
Walsall thumped Port Vale on the final day but still missed out on second place
Those in fifth (18.50%), sixth (14.80%) and seventh (18.50%) have not enjoyed anywhere near as much success.

However, while the stats do dispel the 'curse' of third, only once, in 2007/08, have all three of the highest-finishing teams enjoyed success in the play-offs, with Hull, Doncaster and Stockport going up.

85.3% of statistics are made up on the spot.

The curse of third is about as valid as the curse of the manager of the month.

Thunder Bolt said:

The curse of third is about as valid as the curse of the manager of the month.

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so its a little bit valid

JonathanLivingstonSeagull said:

so its a little bit valid

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only in your mind

Interesting. But ultimately meaningless.

I would say having only a 40% chance is a bloody curse after failing promotion by 2 poxy goals.

Thanks to Palace, and their customary standards of honesty, we had the Curse Of The Turd.

Completely irrelevant much like the constant threads saying we will need 87 points for promotion which was always going to be way off the mark.

We have the worst team to play first but will also have the noisiest home support out of Derby hull and shef wed so anything can happen.




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I'm not sure that finishing third is a problem in itself. The problem is that narrowly missing automatic means you naturally go into the play-offs with a sense of disappointment. Sheffield Wednesday will be feeling more upbeat than us at the moment. We know how we feel. The players probably feel the same.

But I don't think they will for long. By all accounts they are positive and strong men standing close together. Having dinner together on Saturday night was an excellent sign - by Friday they'll be burning to set the record straight.

Lincoln Imp said:

I'm not sure that finishing third is a problem in itself. The problem is that narrowly missing automatic means you naturally go into the play-offs with a sense of disappointment. Sheffield Wednesday will be feeling more upbeat than us at the moment. We know how we feel. The players probably feel the same.

But I don't think they will for long. By all accounts they are positive and strong men standing close together. Having dinner together on Saturday night was an excellent sign - by Friday they'll be burning to set the record straight.

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Going in to the playoffs on the crest of a wave following a last minute goal didn't do us any good two years ago so let's try it from the other end.

Lincoln Imp said:

I'm not sure that finishing third is a problem in itself. The problem is that narrowly missing automatic means you naturally go into the play-offs with a sense of disappointment. Sheffield Wednesday will be feeling more upbeat than us at the moment. We know how we feel. The players probably feel the same.

But I don't think they will for long. By all accounts they are positive and strong men standing close together. Having dinner together on Saturday night was an excellent sign - by Friday they'll be burning to set the record straight.

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That's very true. I said on another thread: has our coin been spent? We were so fixated on Middlesborough, "one win and we're there" that for us the play-offs come almost as a punishment. Wednesday on the other hand have been gearing up towards this for the last few weeks.

Driver8 said:

Going in to the playoffs on the crest of a wave following a last minute goal didn't do us any good two years ago so let's try it from the other end.

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... but this is also true! Just goes to prove that you can make any case you like by looking at past trends. I think in this instance we're best off listening to Henry Ford: "History is bunk". You make your own luck (which I don't believe in anyway), and we'll write our own history.

The stats show there is no curse. That the team finishing 3rd in the Championship is twice as likely to go up than any other. Not to mention we finished much further ahead in 3rd too.

saafend_seagull said:

.

We have the worst team to play first but will also have the noisiest home support out of Derby hull and shef wed so anything can happen.

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Doubt that, tbh - Derby fans make a proper racket when they are on song.