gripper stebson
Well-known member
- Jul 27, 2004
- 6,657
...or take our chances on top two?
Well?
Well?
Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
Would you take a place in the PO Final now...
- Thread starter gripper stebson
- Start date
bn1&bn3 Albion
Well-known member
Take our chances.. Could be the best chance we have to go up automatically for a long time to come.
skipper734
Registered ruffian
No. I'm all in.
Megazone
On his last warning
It's a no brainer.
Play off final all day long.
Play off final all day long.
gripper stebson
Well-known member
- Jul 27, 2004
- 6,657
- Thread starter
- #5
I'm with you I think.
DavidRyder
Well-known member
- Jul 23, 2013
- 2,885
I'm going to say 'yes' to the PO Final, but that's just because I'm a natural pessimist! Can we finish top 2 though - of course!
Probability wise its quite close.
The play off final would represent an approx. 50% chance of success.
The alternative is ABOUT a 25% chance of top two as things stand, but with the fall-back of a further 25% chance of play-off success.
I'd take the guaranteed play-off final if that were offered. You'd be daft not to, I think.
The play off final would represent an approx. 50% chance of success.
The alternative is ABOUT a 25% chance of top two as things stand, but with the fall-back of a further 25% chance of play-off success.
I'd take the guaranteed play-off final if that were offered. You'd be daft not to, I think.
- Apr 5, 2014
- 23,573
Saved me my summary.
Bombadier Botty
Complete Twaddle
- Jun 2, 2008
- 3,258
I've never placed a bet in my life, don't understand the appeal of gambling at all, but no way would I take a play off final on this one. To quote some X-Fighter pilot (who I think dies seconds later) during the 1977 Star Wars film Death Star run scene when they were getting strafed by Imperial Tie Fighters: "Stay on target, Stay on target"
In terms of the odds, remember that if you miss out on top two, you then get a fall-back chance in the play-offs, to ADD to your probability.
Seasidesage
New member
Given that Burnley are probably going to win it. That means we have less than a 33% chance of the last auto place given Boro still have a 2 point advantage and Hull a 2 game one. So I would take the 50% option of the play off final without hesitation...
nwgull
Well-known member
But you've not added the 25% chance that we'd have from reaching the play offs in the first place, meaning that it's better to go for auto with the fall back of the play off semis if we fail.
Phat Baz 68
Get a ****ing life mate !
- Apr 16, 2011
- 5,023
No chance not now
glasfryn
cleaning up cat sick
top two
Wish people would stop saying this. They're on a great run but have had the rub of the green quite a few times and there's a long way to go.
When Boro were about 12 points ahead of us with games in hand, loads of people were saying they were "gone" and would walk to the title. Now look.
It's all conjecture but if you've learnt anything this season then surely it's that nothing is a given.
Peter Grummit
Well-known member
Probability doesn't quite work like that.
Assume your probabilities are correct. Assume there are 100 possible outcomes. 25 are automatic promotion, then 75 are playoffs. We then have 1 in 4 of the playoff outcomes that get us promoted. So there are 25 + (75/4) = 43.75% chance of promotion. This is because finishing top 2 and qualifying for the playoffs are not independent events
The way to intuitively realise this is correct is to take Burnley's position. Assume they have an 80% chance of promotion, 20% chance of making playoffs. You wouldn't then add a 25% chance of being promoted through the playoffs, else they would have a total probability of being promoted of 80 + 25 = 105%! They actually have 80% + (20/4) = 85% chance.
So, I would go for the guaranteed playoff final.
PG
DavidRyder
Well-known member
- Jul 23, 2013
- 2,885
Wins against Reading and MK and I think our top 2 assault will look much stronger
