OK, so we’ve all done the league predictions on various sites and have come up with Brighton getting about 90 points and finishing 3rd or 4th but how likely is this scenario…..
Looking back at league tables from the last 20 or so years and selecting positions from these years where there were 4 teams with 60+ points (but nobody over 70) after 34 games it is clear that these numbers are exaggerated to say the least. In fact last season is a good example….
After 34 the top 4 were….
Derby – 65pts
Boro 63
Norwich 62
Watford 62
(B’mth were 5th on 60)
And at the end we had…
B’mth on 90
Watford 89
Norwich 86
Boro 83
(Derby were 8th on 77)
Taking another season (06-07) on 34 games we had…
Brum 64
WBA 63
Derby 63
Sunderland 60
At the end we had…
Sunderland 88
Brum 86
Derby 84
WBA 76
And in the 11-12 season after 34 games….
Saints (35 played) 66
WHU 64
Reading 63
Boro 59
At the end…..
Reading 89
Saints 88
WHU 86
Boro 70 (7th)
I think the point to take here is that when the table is very close the teams involved don’t play with the freedom and confidence that they may have done beforehand. Points are much more difficult to come by and upsets are more common that if a team already has a big lead. In all 3 of these seasons 90 points would have won promotion and usually the title.
Looking back at league tables from the last 20 or so years and selecting positions from these years where there were 4 teams with 60+ points (but nobody over 70) after 34 games it is clear that these numbers are exaggerated to say the least. In fact last season is a good example….
After 34 the top 4 were….
Derby – 65pts
Boro 63
Norwich 62
Watford 62
(B’mth were 5th on 60)
And at the end we had…
B’mth on 90
Watford 89
Norwich 86
Boro 83
(Derby were 8th on 77)
Taking another season (06-07) on 34 games we had…
Brum 64
WBA 63
Derby 63
Sunderland 60
At the end we had…
Sunderland 88
Brum 86
Derby 84
WBA 76
And in the 11-12 season after 34 games….
Saints (35 played) 66
WHU 64
Reading 63
Boro 59
At the end…..
Reading 89
Saints 88
WHU 86
Boro 70 (7th)
I think the point to take here is that when the table is very close the teams involved don’t play with the freedom and confidence that they may have done beforehand. Points are much more difficult to come by and upsets are more common that if a team already has a big lead. In all 3 of these seasons 90 points would have won promotion and usually the title.
