I've just gone through our remains fixtures and reckon we'll get to 86 points. Will that get us automatic promotion?
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Is 86 points enough for automatic promotion?
- Thread starter Couldn't Be Hyypia
- Start date
crabtree seagull
Active member
- Nov 7, 2007
- 237
I have us down for 84. Think even that could be enough for 2nd
saafend_seagull
Well-known member
Already been a thread. I have already posted this as people said we needed 12 wins. Projection of hull and boro points means we need 91 to get second.
12 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats - we have only played one team in the top 11 twice too.
12 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats - we have only played one team in the top 11 twice too.
There's a chance 86 points will be enough for the autos as all the top 6 teams are taking points off each other, eg Boro beat Brighton, Sheff Wed home and away, Derby at home and Burnley but drew at Derby away and lost to Hull. Yet Hull lost to Derby and Burnley.
However it's still more likely 86 will not be enough.
However it's still more likely 86 will not be enough.
JonnyComeEarly
UTA!!
86 will definitely be enough for top 2. Unless... Its not enough. Then it wont be enough
GT49er
Well-known member
Who knows? We all will in about three months time. So the correct answer is............................................?
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
In last 10 seasons, points won by 2nd team ranged from 79 to 93. On 5 occasions, 2nd team has earned 86 or less, 5 times more.
So 86 is right on cusp historically as to whether it is enough. My instinct is that the top 5 are so competitive this season that 86 probably will be enough, but who knows.
So 86 is right on cusp historically as to whether it is enough. My instinct is that the top 5 are so competitive this season that 86 probably will be enough, but who knows.
mona
The Glory Game
No. Not this season.
downham seagull
New member
Good point! Puts it into perspective!!
saafend_seagull
Well-known member
Why do previous seasons have any bearing? Just spread current points out and our projected 86 points will be short by 5 points. Have to beat hull and burnley.
darkwolf666
Well-known member
Using an on-line table calculator, I project we will finish with 88 points and finish fourth - 6 points short of top spot and 4 from automatic promotion.
Fortunately football isn't played on paper/computer/our minds, etc., but on grass - where a lot can happen with the odd bounce or the lucky opportunity!
Exciting, isn't it?
Fortunately football isn't played on paper/computer/our minds, etc., but on grass - where a lot can happen with the odd bounce or the lucky opportunity!
Exciting, isn't it?
darkwolf666
Well-known member
That doesn't work, as you are just taking all teams in the current positions and working out points per game and then saying that's exactly the same points per game ratio they will finish up with! So obviously Brighton will still finish behind Hull and Middlesboro as their points per game ratio are currently higher than ours!
Applying this logic you might as well finish the season now, as according to your calculations no-one will deviate from their current standard...
saafend_seagull
Well-known member
Applying your logic no one will perform better either.
I'm just saying people are a bit deluded if they think 86 is enough.
5 very competitive teams this year when it is usually 3.
90/91 will get us second given our shocking goal difference.
Dirty Dave
Well-known member
I think it could be a higher than average points needed for top 2 but lower than average for top 6
darkwolf666
Well-known member
My logic is precisely the opposite of what you are saying, someone (hopefully Brighton) will perform better than expected, and will pick up points where not expected.
In all probability someone will also drop points where not expected (again, hopefully not us).