So how do you think StarLizard made it's money, yesterday?

Stat Brother · Feb 14, 2016

Clearly not a thread we can speculate on before kick off.

I think I have my head round the logic, Tony et al are looking for a tiny variations in the odds that they can exploit.
It's not like they would have 'gone large' on Sunderland, as us mug punters do.

But looking at the results I'm not sure I understand enough to know where the money was.

17:30 Chelsea 5 - 1 Newcastle Stamford Bridge
15:00 Bournemouth 1 - 3 Stoke Vitality Stadium
15:00 Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Watford Selhurst Park
15:00 Everton 0 - 1 West Brom Goodison Park
15:00 Norwich 2 - 2 West Ham Carrow Road
15:00 Swansea 0 - 1 Southampton Liberty Stadium
12:45 Sunderland 2 - 1 Man Utd Stadium of Light

SIMMO SAYS · Feb 14, 2016

Stat Brother said:
Clearly not a thread we can speculate on before kick off.

I think I have my head round the logic, Tony et al are looking for a tiny variations in the odds that they can exploit.
It's not like they would have 'gone large' on Sunderland, as us mug punters do.

But looking at the results I'm not sure I understand enough to know where the money was.

17:30 Chelsea 5 - 1 Newcastle Stamford Bridge
15:00 Bournemouth 1 - 3 Stoke Vitality Stadium
15:00 Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Watford Selhurst Park
15:00 Everton 0 - 1 West Brom Goodison Park
15:00 Norwich 2 - 2 West Ham Carrow Road
15:00 Swansea 0 - 1 Southampton Liberty Stadium
12:45 Sunderland 2 - 1 Man Utd Stadium of Light

Best not to ask

Lord Bracknell · Feb 14, 2016

If the name of the game is Big Bets On Sure Fire Winners, Aiming To Get A Positive Return And A Contribution To Long-Term Growth In Earnings, then it's obvious that the safe bet was on Chelsea v Newcastle United - especially in the Asian Handicap market.

Stat Brother · Feb 14, 2016

Taking the Utd game as an example.

Would they be betting on Utd to win as soon as Sunderland scored, then Sunderland to win as soon as Utd equalised?
Assuming the result generates a profit.

Ernest · Feb 14, 2016

I thought it is all done on Asian handicaps ? So nothing what you write bothers them

Stat Brother · Feb 14, 2016

So what is Asian Handicap?
Is that just the Far East version of Ladbrokes with equally shitty adverts, or do they have a different approach to odds and 'chalking up' a game.

Lord Bracknell · Feb 14, 2016

Asian handicap betting starts with an imaginary proposition.

Let's give Chelsea a (say) two goal start on Newcastle United. This makes the odds very different from what a high street bookmaker will offer and punters have the opportunity to make money on Newcastle "beating" Chelsea. In this particular case, any fule can see that a two goal start isn't enough, and the money goes to folk who stick with Chelsea.

Billy the Fish · Feb 14, 2016

Stat Brother said:
But looking at the results I'm not sure I understand enough to know where the money was.

That's because you're not a math's genius who employs a couple of hundred highly skilled employees to develop a super complicated algorithm.

dazzer6666 · Feb 14, 2016

Billy the Fish said:
That's because you're not a math's genius who employs a couple of hundred highly skilled employees to develop a super complicated algorithm.

This. It's a variation on what goes on in the financial markets. Hugely complex statistical models built by (typically) Oxford/Cambridge/Harvard-type maths geeks, aimed at pointing out where they think the bookies have got it slightly wrong, then taking high value punts on short-odds positions.

Da Man Clay · Feb 14, 2016

Stoke at 10/3 were an absolutely outrageous price. I know they hadn't scored for a while but Bournemouth are awful at the back.

Herr Tubthumper · Feb 14, 2016

dazzer6666 said:
This. It's a variation on what goes on in the financial markets. Hugely complex statistical models built by (typically) Oxford/Cambridge/Harvard-type maths geeks, aimed at pointing out where they think the bookies have got it slightly wrong, then taking high value punts on short-odds positions.

I still don't understand it though, mainly because of the betting jargon. Care to explain it in idiot terms with an example.

martin tyler · Feb 14, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
I still don't understand it though, mainly because of the betting jargon. Care to explain it in idiot terms with an example.

In basics I believe Asian handicap for example will have the underdog in the lead. For example the underdog in the Sunderland v man Utd game may have been Sunderland and they are given a 2 goal head start. You can then bet on the outcome. They then employ some maths nuts from God knows where who can work out the most likely outcome. Something weird and wonderful like that anyway

Stat Brother · Feb 14, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
I still don't understand it though, mainly because of the betting jargon. Care to explain it in idiot terms with an example.

I'm not sure this helps :dunce:

https://betting.betfair.com/football/asian-handicap-betting-strategy-tips-betfair.html

This really doesn't :lol:

From http://www.asiabookie.info/asian-handicap-odds.html

15/02 00:15 Manchester City vs Tottenham 0:1/2 Manchester City
15/02 00:00 Manchester City (Corners) 1.91 0:1 1.93 Tottenham Hotspur (Corners)

17/02 04:00 Hull City 1.90 0:1/2 2.02 Brighton & Hove Albion

Herr Tubthumper · Feb 14, 2016

martin tyler said:
In basics I believe Asian handicap for example will have the underdog in the lead. For example the underdog in the Sunderland v man Utd game may have been Sunderland and they are given a 2 goal head start. You can then bet on the outcome. They then employ some maths nuts from God knows where who can work out the most likely outcome. Something weird and wonderful like that anyway

I understand the handicap bit. But the article [MENTION=588]8ace[/MENTION] posted says they can determine more precise odds. So, armed with these better odds, what do they then do? If team A win has odds of 3/1 on the Asian high street but Starlizard deem the odds to be 4/1 do they put a few quid on the Asian High Steet?

martin tyler · Feb 14, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
I understand the handicap bit. But the article [MENTION=588]8ace[/MENTION] posted says they can determine more precise odds. So, armed with these better odds, what do they then do? If team A win has odds of 3/1 on the Asian high street but Starlizard deem the odds to be 4/1 do they put a few quid on the Asian High Steet?

Basically the work out the odds they think it should be and check it against the bookies. If they think the bookies are wrong and the odds are to high they advise clients to put money on it. I believe they are paid for advice only although I'm sure they follow bet themselves as it's clearly profitable

8ace · Feb 14, 2016

Herr Tubthumper said:
If team A win has odds of 3/1 on the Asian high street but Starlizard deem the odds to be 4/1 do they put a few quid on the Asian High Steet?

Other way round.

Stat Brother · Feb 14, 2016

Can anyone tell me what 'Asia' is anticipating this afternoon as per the odds on #13.

Also what if StatLizard thinks the Albion will win v Hull 2-1 and has a spare £10,000, what would I be looking to do.

Herr Tubthumper · Feb 14, 2016

8ace said:
Other way round.

So what Starlizard are doing is looking for value on the Asian High Street. I understand it now. Thanks.

8ace · Feb 14, 2016

Stat Brother said:
Can anyone tell me what 'Asia' is anticipating this afternoon as per the odds on #13.

Also what if StatLizard thinks the Albion will win v Hull 2-1 and has a spare £10,000, what would I be looking to do.

They don't bet on Brighton.

Albion my Albion · Feb 14, 2016

Lord Bracknell said:
If the name of the game is Big Bets On Sure Fire Winners, Aiming To Get A Positive Return And A Contribution To Long-Term Growth In Earnings, then it's obvious that the safe bet was on Chelsea v Newcastle United - especially in the Asian Handicap market.

This Asian handicapped man is willing to bet his life savings on football. That must be a good market.

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