Less likely to go up than before the transfer window

Bozza · Feb 2, 2016

...says some fancy Dan model.

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Birmingham City have a better chance of starting the 2016/17 season in the Premier League than rivals Aston Villa, according to a probability model.

The Blues are sixth in the Championship, eight points off the automatic promotion places, but are better placed for a Premier League spot than Remi Garde's Villa, alongside seven other Championship clubs, according to Sportsrisq's proprietary model.

According to the model, which reflects key stats that impact future performance such as results, form and the form of players signed, Villa have a one per cent chance of staying in the Premier League.

deletebeepbeepbeep · Feb 2, 2016

That puts us fifth which is probably what I expect from our current position and never would have expected at the start of the season.

Paul Reids Sock · Feb 2, 2016

deletebeepbeepbeep said:
That puts us fifth which is probably what I expect from our current position and never would have expected at the start of the season.

Very true, I would have been over the moon with a pop at the lottery that is playoffs.

I reckon work will have started on a striker and it will be completed in the Summer. We know how hard it can be in January and I genuinely believe that the recruitment team thought Hemed was the answer. Looking at the beginning of the season you could understand why! He just needs to get the goal scoring touch back and he could still become an important player

glasfryn · Feb 2, 2016

what sort of world do these people live in to dream up all this shite

El Presidente · Feb 2, 2016

Surprised that 'Boro have dropped given their position in the table and the signings they have made. Rhodes, Ramirex, De Laet, De Sart and Sola all look like quality additions in the window.

I think most observers would say that they made signings from a position of strength. Not sure where I've heard that saying before mind.

El Presidente · Feb 2, 2016

glasfryn said:
what sort of world do these people live in to dream up all this shite

Gambling.

Stato · Feb 2, 2016

Okay mathematicians, explain to me how this can be:

If there is a hundred percent chance of three teams from the Championship being in the Premier League next year, shouldn't the total percentage chance of all candidates for promotion equal 3 x 100%, or 300%?

This table adds Boro's 83% to Hull's 75%, Derby's 40%, Burnley's 29, our 22% SW's 10%, Ipswich's 8%, Brum's 5%, Cardiff's 3% and divides 5% between five other teams. The total is only 280% split between 14 contenders. Were this calculation to divide the remaining 20% chance between the remaining 10 teams, they would each have to have a 2% chance, i.e. a greater chance than five of the teams in the top 14.

Either my logic is off somewhere or this is a load of old cods. I feel sure it must be me, but I don't know exactly how.

ofco8 · Feb 2, 2016

Paul Reids Sock said:
Very true, I would have been over the moon with a pop at the lottery that is playoffs.

I reckon work will have started on a striker and it will be completed in the Summer. We know how hard it can be in January and I genuinely believe that the recruitment team thought Hemed was the answer. Looking at the beginning of the season you could understand why! He just needs to get the goal scoring touch back and he could still become an important player

This. Even when we were top all those weeks pre Christmas I never thought we would be automatic contenders, so have to be pleased that a play off spot is predicted.
Sadly we are not the best in play offs. Must keep the faith though.

Goldstone1976 · Feb 2, 2016

Stato said:
I feel sure it must be me, Me too but I don't know exactly how. Me neither

Hope that helps. :wink:

hans kraay fan club · Feb 2, 2016

Stato said:
Okay mathematicians, explain to me how this can be:

If there is a hundred percent chance of three teams from the Championship being in the Premier League next year, shouldn't the total percentage chance of all candidates for promotion equal 3 x 100%, or 300%?

This table adds Boro's 83% to Hull's 75%, Derby's 40%, Burnley's 29, our 22% SW's 10%, Ipswich's 8%, Brum's 5%, Cardiff's 3% and divides 5% between five other teams. The total is only 280% split between 14 contenders. Were this calculation to divide the remaining 20% chance between the remaining 10 teams, they would each have to have a 2% chance, i.e. a greater chance than five of the teams in the top 14.

Either my logic is off somewhere or this is a load of old cods. I feel sure it must be me, but I don't know exactly how.

Rounding. If for example, all those 1%ers listed are actually 1.4%, that would account for your issue.

Gwylan · Feb 2, 2016

Stato said:
Okay mathematicians, explain to me how this can be:

If there is a hundred percent chance of three teams from the Championship being in the Premier League next year, shouldn't the total percentage chance of all candidates for promotion equal 3 x 100%, or 300%?

This table adds Boro's 83% to Hull's 75%, Derby's 40%, Burnley's 29, our 22% SW's 10%, Ipswich's 8%, Brum's 5%, Cardiff's 3% and divides 5% between five other teams. The total is only 280% split between 14 contenders. Were this calculation to divide the remaining 20% chance between the remaining 10 teams, they would each have to have a 2% chance, i.e. a greater chance than five of the teams in the top 14.

Either my logic is off somewhere or this is a load of old cods. I feel sure it must be me, but I don't know exactly how.

The totals add up to 282% not 280% so that's 18 split between 10 teams. You're not taking into account that some numbers could be rounded down - let's 12 are rounded down and 2 are rounded up - that would make another 3 or 4%. But yes, there's a bit of a discrepancy there

Jim D · Feb 2, 2016

I don't know when that table was compiled but if recently then of course we've dropped several points since the start of the window (along with Boro, while Burnley and Hull have gained many more). If we're only down 1% since Jan 1st having dropped 6 points out of 12 then that's not bad.

Blue Valkyrie · Feb 2, 2016

Beat Brentford and our % will go up.

Let's keep it going up.

Tony Meolas Loan Spell · Feb 2, 2016

El Presidente said:
I think most observers would say that they made signings from a position of strength. Not sure where I've heard that saying before mind.

Me either. Whoever it was was obviously talking about other teams and NOT BHA.

larus · Feb 2, 2016

El Presidente said:
Surprised that 'Boro have dropped given their position in the table and the signings they have made. Rhodes, Ramirex, De Laet, De Sart and Sola all look like quality additions in the window.

I think most observers would say that they made signings from a position of strength. Not sure where I've heard that saying before mind.

Maybe because they lost a couple of games, so affecting their form/points per game, but offset by their recruitment? I could be talking b*llocks though.

Bozza · Feb 2, 2016

El Presidente said:
Surprised that 'Boro have dropped given their position in the table and the signings they have made. Rhodes, Ramirex, De Laet, De Sart and Sola all look like quality additions in the window.

I had assumed that is is because since the start of the transfer window their form has turned to shite whilst others have improved and as they were so heavily positive before the window, form has more than offset transfer-influenced factors.

El Presidente · Feb 2, 2016

Bozza said:
I had assumed that is is because since the start of the transfer window their form has turned to shite whilst others have improved and as they were so heavily positive before the window, form has more than offset transfer-influenced factors.

Yup, seems fair enough. They had two league wins and one defeat during the window though, including turning over Derby.

Their defence will see them through, 14 conceded in 27 games is incredible. Add Rhodes up front.....

Simster · Feb 2, 2016

El Presidente said:
Yup, seems fair enough. They had two league wins and one defeat during the window though, including turning over Derby.

Their defence will see them through, 14 conceded in 27 games is incredible. Add Rhodes up front.....

I think I might do a little sex wee if Rhodes gets injured and is out for the season in the next week or two.

El Presidente · Feb 2, 2016

Simster said:
I think I might do a little sex wee if Rhodes gets injured and is out for the season in the next week or two.

I'd be delighted if 'Boro were crowned champions with one match to go of the season.

Stato · Feb 2, 2016

Gwylan said:
The totals add up to 282% not 280% so that's 18 split between 10 teams. You're not taking into account that some numbers could be rounded down - let's 12 are rounded down and 2 are rounded up - that would make another 3 or 4%. But yes, there's a bit of a discrepancy there

I'm still getting 280%.

Accepting your and Hans's suggestion of rounding means that the remaining 20% could be accounted for by dividing it among all 24 teams, splitting just over 13% between the bottom ten and dividing the remainder among the top 14 ensuring that nobody got more than half a percent, but this would need the statistically unlikely scenario that all teams who got over 1% would end with a percentage chance of X + <0.5 and could be rounded down not up.

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