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Revealed, the magic number Albion should be aiming for [The Argus]



Newshound

Brighton 8049
Jun 5, 2011
18,382
Albion could be out of the play-offs by the time they kick-off at Blackburn Rovers tomorrow.
But a top six finish is still a strong possibility - even if automatic promotion now looks realistically out of reach.
Sheffield Wednesday, two points below the Seagulls in seventh with a superior goal difference, host Leeds in a Yorkshire derby on Saturday (12.30).
Victory for the Owls will put extra pressure on Albion ending their seven-match winless sequence in the Championship at Ewood Park.
Dropping out of the play-off places could be damaging psychologically but positional nuances with 20 games to go are not as significant as the points target Albion now need to aim for come May.
First that runners-up spot, assuming runaway leaders Middlesbrough are uncatchable for Chris Hughton's side.
It changed hands on Wednesday, Hull moving above Derby by beating Cardiff at home.
Hull are now six points clear of Albion, Derby five. Those gaps are relatively small but Hull and Derby both have more strength in depth, not forgetting Burnley who have also inched back above the Seagulls.
You would fancy at least one of those three to finish above Albion. It will require a considerable surge over the remaining 20 games for Hughton's team to prevail.
Over the course of the last ten years in the Championship, 87 has been the number of points guaranteeing the runners-up spot.
To achieve that Albion need 13 wins, four draws and only three defeats, a tall order.
In 2012-13, when the Seagulls finished fourth under Gus Poyet, 78 points would have been sufficient for Hull to seal second place, the same mark as Stoke in 2007-08.
This, by coincidence, is the figure which would clinch a play-off berth, based on the last decade.
Ipswich accumulated 78 points in finishing sixth last season, above Wolves on goal difference.
The next-highest tally required was 75 by Southampton in 2006-07. Albion, under Oscar Garcia in 2013-14, squeezed in with 72, Leicester made it the year before with only 68.
So 78 points could be more than enough but that total would leave nothing to chance and is the one they should aim for.
The Seagulls are in a dreadful run of form at the moment but ten wins, four draws and six defeats over the rest of the season would carry them to that mark.
Most clubs pick up more points at home than away. Albion are no exception so far (26 compared to 18), even after a hat-trick of defeats at the Amex.
The ten games left at home are the key to rebuilding a solid foundation for making the play-offs.
Seven of them are against sides currently outside the top ten. The exceptions are Sheffield Wednesday, Burnley and Derby, all of whom visit within the last six home games of the season from March.
It will be tougher away to pick up wins, even though Tuesday's reverse at Rotherham was Albion's first on the road this season in the Championship. They had drawn the previous six.
Four of the ten away fixtures left are against teams in the top nine (Cardiff, Birmingham, Hull and Boro on the final day).
The opportunity is there, with Kazenga LuaLua creeping back towards full fitness and newcomer Anthony Knockaert raiding down the other flank, for Albion to rediscover their formidable home form.
That will go a long way to reaching the magic number of 78.

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