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How far can we go?



Stato

Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
6,578
With the win on Saturday we drew level with our smallest number of points in a 24 team season in the second tier.

The next point gained beats 2005/06's total for the whole season. Perhaps some are as sad as me and would find it interesting to see how far this squad can go in comparison with our previous seasons. How many can we beat and at what point in the season? With 15 points still to play for before the half way point, we are already over half way to our best ever total.

2005/06 38
2002/03 45
2014/15 47
1991/92 47
2004/05 51
1988/89 51
1989/90 54
2011/12 66
1990/91 70
2013/14 72
2012/13 75

This is not intended as a hubris filled countdown to promotion. It is worth noting that 1978/79, our only promotion from this level was in a 22 team division where we averaged 1.88 points per game. In a 24 team league this would have seen us finish with 86 or 87 points. Looking at recent seasons, this kind of total would most likely gain a play off place, but not a top two finish. I hope that our form continues and we are able to chalk off these seasons, but if the rest of the top five keep up their current pace, beating even our best season at this level would in no way guarantee a top two finish. Derby were top at this point last year and ended the season with 77 points, beating our 2012/13 total points, but still missing out on the play offs.
 




Big G

Big G

New member
Dec 14, 2005
1,086
Brighton
Never thought Bournemouth would get promoted last season at this point so no reason why we can't go all the way!
 


GT49er

GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,712
Gloucester
Stato said:
With the win on Saturday we drew level with our smallest number of points in a 24 team season in the second tier.

The next point gained beats 2005/06's total for the whole season. Perhaps some are as sad as me and would find it interesting to see how far this squad can go in comparison with our previous seasons. How many can we beat and at what point in the season? With 15 points still to play for before the half way point, we are already over half way to our best ever total.

2005/06 38
2002/03 45
2014/15 47
1991/92 47
2004/05 51
1988/89 51
1989/90 54
2011/12 66
1990/91 70
2013/14 72
2012/13 75

This is not intended as a hubris filled countdown to promotion. It is worth noting that 1978/79, our only promotion from this level was in a 22 team division where we averaged 1.88 points per game. In a 24 team league this would have seen us finish with 86 or 87 points. Looking at recent seasons, this kind of total would most likely gain a play off place, but not a top two finish. I hope that our form continues and we are able to chalk off these seasons, but if the rest of the top five keep up their current pace, beating even our best season at this level would in no way guarantee a top two finish. Derby were top at this point last year and ended the season with 77 points, beating our 2012/13 total points, but still missing out on the play offs.
Click to expand...

1978-79 was before football was invented then, was it?
 


Stato

Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
6,578
GT49er said:
1978-79 was before football was invented then, was it?
Click to expand...

I don't really understand your point.

I'm sad enough to lookup our points totals, but not enough to spend the time it would take to calculate an equivalent points total for all the 22 team and two points for a win seasons that we spent in this division. I bothered with 78/79 because it was obviously our most successful season in the second tier.
 


GT49er

GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,712
Gloucester
Stato said:
I don't really understand your point.
Exactly. You didn't take into account football before it was 'invented' by Sky. Don't let it bother you - you're not the only one. Millions suffer from the same delusions, and continue to pour money into Sky's coffers.
Click to expand...
 




Stato

Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
6,578
GT49er said:
Stato said:
I don't really understand your point.
Exactly. You didn't take into account football before it was 'invented' by Sky. Don't let it bother you - you're not the only one. Millions suffer from the same delusions, and continue to pour money into Sky's coffers.
Click to expand...

What a strange conclusion to draw.

If you want to work out an equivalent points total for all the seasons when there were less than twenty four teams in the league feel free to add them. You would have to translate average points per game into a 46 game season to reach totals that are mathematically comparable.

If you can't be bothered, should I follow your logic and assume that this is because you love Rupert Murdoch and only started watching football because he told you to?
Click to expand...
 




S

saafend_seagull

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
13,891
BN1
There's some seriously shite teams in this division, not everyone can beat everyone.

The bottom 3

Huddersfield - highest team beat is 19th
Bolton - highest team beat is wolves in 15th
Rotherham - highest team beat is Birmingham in joint 6th to 8th

Reckon 5th place will end up with around 81-82 points. 7th with similar to last year. Top 2 will be 93ish. Reckon we will get around 82/83.
 




Icy Gull

Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
saafend_seagull said:
There's some seriously shite teams in this division, not everyone can beat everyone.

The bottom 3

Huddersfield - highest team beat is 19th
Bolton - highest team beat is wolves in 15th
Rotherham - highest team beat is Birmingham in joint 6th to 8th

Reckon 5th place will end up with around 81-82 points. 7th with similar to last year. Top 2 will be 93ish. Reckon we will get around 82/83.
Click to expand...

We ended up drawing with two of those seriously shite teams...
 


M

Mo Gosfield

Well-known member
Aug 11, 2010
6,284
GT49er said:
Stato said:
I don't really understand your point.
Exactly. You didn't take into account football before it was 'invented' by Sky. Don't let it bother you - you're not the only one. Millions suffer from the same delusions, and continue to pour money into Sky's coffers.
Click to expand...

Not me.
I don't invest in something that hasn't got the good of the game at heart.
Onto BHA.....Only Bournemouth lost fewer than 10 games last season ( 8 ) We have 28 games to play....Of our 14 home games, I expect us to win 8, draw 4 and lose 2 ( 28 pts ) Of our 14 away games, I have been more cautious and gone for 4 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats ( 18 pts )....Grand total.....84.
We are a difficult side to beat and will continue to rack up draws, particularly away. We may outperform 84 points, it just depends on availability.....If we have Bong, KLL, Rosenior, Baldock, Towell, Harper and a big money January signing available for the last three months, we could pass 90 points.
Exciting times.
Click to expand...
 


Garry Nelson's Left Foot

Garry Nelson's Left Foot

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
13,109
tokyo
We're already half way to beating our best points total so with us needing only 38 points from 28 games I'd be surprised and frankly disappointed if we didn't get at least 76 points. Which, apart from last year, would be enough to get us in the play offs for each of the last 15 seasons(and probably further back too, I couldn't be bothered to check that far). So, barring a disaster(which, i suppose, is always possible), we're looking good for the play offs at least.

Can we do better? Working on the assumption that you need one more point than the third placed team to gain promotion, in the last 15 seasons the third placed team has got between 75(in 2008) and 87(in 2001) points. So we potentially need anywhere from 38 to 50 more points. Or, in other words, mid table form from here on in will see us into the play offs with a (very) long shot that it'll be enough to get us automatic promotion and top end play off form from here on in will see us automatically promoted.

That's not a bad position to be in. I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at whether we'll make automatic promotion but I'm pretty confident that we'll be somewhere in the top six. And that is an amazing thing to be able to say this early in the season.
 






dazzer6666

dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,356
Burgess Hill
saafend_seagull said:
There's some seriously shite teams in this division, not everyone can beat everyone.

The bottom 3

Huddersfield - highest team beat is 19th
Bolton - highest team beat is wolves in 15th
Rotherham - highest team beat is Birmingham in joint 6th to 8th

Reckon 5th place will end up with around 81-82 points. 7th with similar to last year. Top 2 will be 93ish. Reckon we will get around 82/83.
Click to expand...

Would be a bit disappointing to end up with that from here but not counting chickens. I know the unbeaten run is great but I think we've deserved what we've got points-wise so far, and with more up front we'd arguably have more points. More wins, fewer draws and the odd defeat.........continuing at our current rate (2.11 per game) would put us on 96/7...........so somewhere between your stab and that I'd guess. I'm expecting narrowly missing automatic promotion personally but happy to dream. Could see us going to Boro last day of the season level on points with them in 2nd & 3rd :eek:
 






Bob!

Bob!

Coffee Buyer
Jul 5, 2003
11,115
Stato said:
With the win on Saturday we drew level with our smallest number of points in a 24 team season in the second tier.

The next point gained beats 2005/06's total for the whole season. Perhaps some are as sad as me and would find it interesting to see how far this squad can go in comparison with our previous seasons. How many can we beat and at what point in the season? With 15 points still to play for before the half way point, we are already over half way to our best ever total.

2005/06 38
2002/03 45
2014/15 47
1991/92 47
2004/05 51
1988/89 51
1989/90 54
2011/12 66
1990/91 70
2013/14 72
2012/13 75

This is not intended as a hubris filled countdown to promotion. It is worth noting that 1978/79, our only promotion from this level was in a 22 team division where we averaged 1.88 points per game. In a 24 team league this would have seen us finish with 86 or 87 points. Looking at recent seasons, this kind of total would most likely gain a play off place, but not a top two finish. I hope that our form continues and we are able to chalk off these seasons, but if the rest of the top five keep up their current pace, beating even our best season at this level would in no way guarantee a top two finish. Derby were top at this point last year and ended the season with 77 points, beating our 2012/13 total points, but still missing out on the play offs.
Click to expand...

How many points did we get in 77/78, the year we were CHEATED out of promotion?
 


L

London Irish

Well-known member
Nov 25, 2003
21,866
Trapped inside the Project for the New American Ce
My big worry is injuries to Kayal-Stephens - no disrespect to the squad players but I think the drop off in class is more in those positions than in any other part of the team and in the vital game-controlling area too. Hope the Irish lad will be the answer.
 








Bold Seagull

Bold Seagull

strong and stable with me, or...
Mar 18, 2010
29,781
Hove
Stato said:
In a 24 team league this would have seen us finish with 86 or 87 points. Looking at recent seasons, this kind of total would most likely gain a play off place, but not a top two finish.
Click to expand...

Taking 1 point above 3rd in order to secure 2nd place, 2nd would have been achieved with 87, 86, 78, 87, 81, 80, 81 in previous seasons. What 2nd actually got isn't as relevant as what they needed to secure 2nd place which is as listed.
 




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