Juan Albion
Chicken Sniffer 3rd Class
Okay, yes I know mathematically we can definitely still go down, but in your heart and your brain do you really think there is any chance at all of us free-falling into a relegation battle this season?
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[Albion] Is relegation still a possibility?
- Thread starter Juan Albion
- Start date
Machiavelli
Well-known member
My heart doesn't think about such things. My brain tells me that we need 20-25 points to stay up, and that we'll get them, but that's not guaranteed. I've also just posted this on another thread:
My current thinking is:
55 more points gets us in the play-offs (i.e. from remaining 37 games = 74 points)
65 more points gets us promoted automatically (i.e. etc = 84 points)
People can trade past points tallies for play-offs and automatics, but this season's Championship is even more competitive, which means there are more fancied teams taking points off one another and, especially, drawing games (this has happened already).
My current thinking is:
55 more points gets us in the play-offs (i.e. from remaining 37 games = 74 points)
65 more points gets us promoted automatically (i.e. etc = 84 points)
People can trade past points tallies for play-offs and automatics, but this season's Championship is even more competitive, which means there are more fancied teams taking points off one another and, especially, drawing games (this has happened already).
Dr. Notthenineo'clocknews
Remainer
Yes of course, we are almost certainly going to finish in the bottom six, so relegation is a serious possibility.
(Happy now?)
.
(Happy now?)
.
I think it'll take more than 84 points for 2nd.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
I explained my rationale in the post. What's yours?
Juan Albion
Chicken Sniffer 3rd Class
- Thread starter
- #8
I'd prefer the Gospel according to Perseus personally. Bound to be well thought through.
Don't take anything for granted until Ernest has given his views on this thread. Once he says we are safe then we are definitely safe
Machiavelli
Well-known member
If that's the case, it is simply impossible for us to get relegated this season then.
Blackadder
Brighton Bhuna Boy
Bookies don't usually make mistakes but if you feel lucky?
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation
I think the standard of several teams is very high this year, but I don't think it's one of those years where everyone will take points off of each other week after week. A few seasons back, there were just a couple of games to go and all but a few teams could still get either promoted or relegated. I do expect results to be somewhat unpredictable (as is the Championship way), but not as much as in some previous seasons. 84 points would do it in several seasons, I just think there are a few teams that will push the line a bit higher this season. I hope you're right though.
Juan Albion
Chicken Sniffer 3rd Class
- Thread starter
- #14
Yes, that was my point in asking the question.
Both my head and heart say no chance of relegation this season! I know its early days but i'm confident we will be in the top six! - i'm new to posting on any forum not just NSC so prob be my fault if we end up where we did last season I just cant see it!
fat old seagull
New member
I really can't get my head around anyone being negative, or at least anxious after the start we have had. Yes we could be demoted, though it's an ever decreasing possibility.
But how does defeat enter ones mindset, when you're winning...anything?
I hope that if I suffered from any generalised anxiety disorder, and became concerned when everything was rosy, I'd refrain from any connection to its source, otherwise how in pity's name could I get any joy from it?
But how does defeat enter ones mindset, when you're winning...anything?
I hope that if I suffered from any generalised anxiety disorder, and became concerned when everything was rosy, I'd refrain from any connection to its source, otherwise how in pity's name could I get any joy from it?
Mathematically, yes; we have only between 1/3 and 1/2 the points we need to avoid the drop. Emotionally, and intellectually, no, I don't think we have a chance of relegation this season. There are just too many things going right atm; it would take 4 or 5 season-long injuries, no replacements for them, and Hughton to leave in order for me to get worried and I can't see all of those things happening.
Promotion chances? That's much harder to predict. All I'm prepared to say on that is that extrapolation after tonight's game gives us 125 points at the end of the season, which would probably be enough! Extrapolation's great, isn't it?
Promotion chances? That's much harder to predict. All I'm prepared to say on that is that extrapolation after tonight's game gives us 125 points at the end of the season, which would probably be enough! Extrapolation's great, isn't it?
Taking our form last season as a baseline for just good enough to avoid relegation, we have reached Mid December.
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
Can we not rejoice in the best start to a Championship season for ages and don't start worrying about this sort of thing until February? Not that we will need to worry about it this season of course.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
I said on another thread that the teams I'm worried about are the obvious ones (or at least the ones favoured by the punters at the bookies): Boro, Derby, Hull and Burnley. I'd be surprised if at least three of those don't make the top six. So that does fall in line with your rationale. But the Championship throws up surprises, and it's not just us. There are a whole host of teams that are also challenging for the play-offs. Glancing at the table, I'd say everyone in the top 15 (bar Leeds
) could get there. Birmingham are the ones, for instance, that are out-performing expectations.So I still expect 84 to be sufficient.