Brentford's statistical strategy- recipe for success or will plans go up in smoke?

stss30 · May 17, 2015

It seems that after Warburton's departure their chairman has wasted no time in appointing another co-director of football. One with a heavy statistical background has been joined by a 'sports performance expert' who is already involved at a Danish club. http://www.theguardian.com/football...mus-ankersen-matthew-benham-midtylland-danish

I think it's an interesting concept but for me there are too many variables within football to sign players based on statistics. Obviously they have seen some success this season though, thoughts?

Icy Gull · May 17, 2015

Isn't that very similar to how our system worked under Burke? That went well. Funny that Brentford are owned by an ex chum of Bloom. A disaster in waiting is my prediction.

stss30 · May 17, 2015

Icy Gull said:
Isn't that very similar to how our system worked under Burke? That went well. Funny that Brentford are owned by an ex chum of Bloom. A disaster in waiting is my prediction.

There was much talk on here of Burke's 'spreadsheets' but I'm not sure how statistically based they were. I got the impression the main emphasis was on scouting, most of our signings (bar a few) weren't that left field, Brentford's first signing is an attacking midfielder from a third division German club- http://www.brentfordfc.co.uk/news/article/brentford-sign-akaki-gogia-2459494.aspx

Could be genius or a complete car crash.

Blue Valkyrie · May 17, 2015

Looks like he is trying to get promotion on the cheap.

Very happy for them to go down the cheapskate road, my guess is that it will end in tears.

KZNSeagull · May 17, 2015

It depends for how long they have employed it already, if at all. If they have been using it for the past couple of seasons, then I would call it a success so far. At the end of the day though, a mixture of the two is the way to go.

AmexRuislip · May 17, 2015

Icy Gull said:
Isn't that very similar to how our system worked under Burke? That went well. Funny that Brentford are owned by an ex chum of Bloom. A disaster in waiting is my prediction.

You are right about the similarity to Burke.
Also I think that Brentfords position in regards to Brighton is similiar, they have an old ground which they need to move away, as property hounds have always wanted that piece of ground to build on and will have a new stadium to move in to once built.
My work colleague Brentford Barrie is a very optimistic fan :thumbsup:

perseus · May 17, 2015

Predict: Nearly but not quite ultimately ending in frustration.

Guinness Boy · May 17, 2015

Depends how many of the current squad they keep and who coaches them. Potentially a disaster waiting to happen.

Stat Brother · May 17, 2015

I think there are far too many in football who make a living, and lot of money, out of saying the game is harder than it actually is.

Obviously there's a place in football for doing the job with scouts and word of mouth 'the old way'.
But that doesn't mean there isn't a place for a statistical approach.

Anyone ignoring the current slew data on every player is an idiot or more likely an egomaniac.

seagulls4ever · May 17, 2015

It seems ridiculous they want to implement this now after the massive success they've had over the past two seasons. Their manager is leaving because of it.

Acker79 · May 17, 2015

Sean Dyche has talked about how he uses everything. That statistical analysis and so on can be useful, when used in conjunction with everything else. You can't put too much importance on one thing.

Warren Aspinall talked about Burke ignoring the scouts' suggestions, sticking to his own ideas. Sounds to me like we did lean too heavily on statistics.

Westdene Seagull · May 17, 2015

KZNSeagull said:
It depends for how long they have employed it already, if at all. If they have been using it for the past couple of seasons, then I would call it a success so far. At the end of the day though, a mixture of the two is the way to go.

My understanding from a BBC article I read a while back is that they wanted to start using the system towards the end of this season. Hence the bust up between Warburton ( who didn't ) and the chairman ( who did ). For what it's worth I think using statistical analysis as the main decider on which players to buy can only lead to disaster - some things just aren't that scientific. Hopefully Warburton will get a decent managerial job soon where footballing knowledge counts rather than bean counters with spreadsheets.

stss30 · May 17, 2015

KZNSeagull said:
It depends for how long they have employed it already, if at all. If they have been using it for the past couple of seasons, then I would call it a success so far. At the end of the day though, a mixture of the two is the way to go.

I agree, but I still think (especially when signing players from foreign leagues) scouting should take precedence over statistics. Physically, quality of opposition etc can skew statistics and make players appear better than they are. In my opinion anyway. On the other hand fees paid for players in other parts of the world seem to be much lower so perhaps worth the gamble in some instances.

Acker79 said:
Sean Dyche has talked about how he uses everything. That statistical analysis and so on can be useful, when used in conjunction with everything else. You can't put too much importance on one thing.

Warren Aspinall talked about Burke ignoring the scouts' suggestions, sticking to his own ideas. Sounds to me like we did lean too heavily on statistics.

Wasn't aware of that, interesting.

Lincoln Imp · May 17, 2015

I thought Brentford relied on pace, width and off-pitch solidarity, qualities that got Southampton, Palace and Bournemouth out of this division. If they rely on stats to the exclusion of all else they could finish up with a season like another southern club has just had.

Cadiz Seagull · May 17, 2015

I very much doubt that any club recruits on statistics.

Statistics are a very good way of identifying potential players, a hell of a lot cheaper then sending scouts all over the world. And more efeective too; a scout watching a player will have a subjective view, statistics will produce facts.

Once the statistics have identified potential targets then is the time for real live scouts and managers to watch the player themselves, either on video or in the flesh.

To say we or any other club recruit on statistics is a huge over simplification. It's an important part of the process, no more and no less.

And for the vast majority of clubs the final decision will rest with the manager. Certainly that is and always has been the case at the Albion, no matter what some on NSC might like to believe

KZNSeagull · May 17, 2015

Acker79 said:
Sean Dyche has talked about how he uses everything. That statistical analysis and so on can be useful, when used in conjunction with everything else. You can't put too much importance on one thing.

Warren Aspinall talked about Burke ignoring the scouts' suggestions, sticking to his own ideas. Sounds to me like we did lean too heavily on statistics.

Soccernomics talks about the "wisdom of crowds" when it comes to transfers - the more information gained and the more people that evaluate the information the better. WA implies that we were relying heavily on perhaps one persons opinion, which is not the way to do things. A healthy mix of opinion combined with statistics is the way to go. I would not be comfortable if our policy was based upon only the manager's say so either.

Triggaaar · May 17, 2015

The only thing that matters is results. But only looking at results gives you a false impression on how to get them.

I think their philosophy is good, we'll just have to wait and see whether or not it works.

drew · May 17, 2015

Icy Gull said:
Isn't that very similar to how our system worked under Burke? That went well. Funny that Brentford are owned by an ex chum of Bloom. A disaster in waiting is my prediction.

Two play-off appearances in three seasons for us and a promotion and play-off appearance for Brentford.

Stat Brother said:
I think there are far too many in football who make a living, and lot of money, out of saying the game is harder than it actually is.

Obviously there's a place in football for doing the job with scouts and word of mouth 'the old way'.
But that doesn't mean there isn't a place for a statistical approach.

Anyone ignoring the current slew data on every player is an idiot or more likely an egomaniac.

I agree, people seem to be deciding it is one system or the other. Statistics are a tool to be used in conjunction with observations made by a scout. That seems to be what the Brentford model is being based on according to this quote from Mr Warburton himself talking about the chairman.

"He wants recruitment to be based more on mathematical modelling and statistics allied to normal scouting methods," he told BBC Radio 5 live. "For me, I have a different philosophy on how the football department needs to be run to be successful.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/31527831

If you have a player that has a couple of good games that coincide with the visit of a couple of scouts but then statistics show that most of the time, his passing is incomplete, or he doesn't really cover much ground or he only plays on average a third of the season due to injuries or suspensions etc. Using those you can either help decide whether you want to sign or if you chose to gamble, help negotiate a better deal.

Rookie · May 17, 2015

Seems to have worked in Denmark. The Brentford chairman owns a club out there where he implemented the system and, I think, they are doing pretty well. Whether it can cross over into the English game and the ultra competitive championship only time will tell. Warburton obviously didn't think it would.

Icy Gull · May 17, 2015

drew said:
Two play-off appearances in three seasons for us

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I'd suggest the first play off team was a Poyet team and the second one was what was left of a Poyet team who scraped in but had no chance of winning. This season was the first REAL Burke system team IMO. Allegedly the most expensive Albion team ever, I say again, that went well...

I think Brentford intend to use this new system from here on, so not sure how much the last two seasons can be attributed to it, hence the manager deciding he was out quite a few months ago.

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