NSC General Election Exit Poll

Gregory2Smith1 · May 7, 2015

Labour Majority
Conservative Majority
Labour Coalition
Conservative Coalition

not who you want to win,but who you think will win

put it up now because Sunderland are just about to declare :lol:

made it a public poll purely for bragging rights

Notters · May 7, 2015

None of the above. Labour minority government.

Blue Valkyrie · May 7, 2015

Not really an 'Exit Poll' is it?

Herr Tubthumper · May 7, 2015

Notters said:
None of the above. Labour minority government.

This

Herr Tubthumper · May 7, 2015

Great thread

beorhthelm · May 7, 2015

options confuse the outcome of the election with who would form the next government. the two are different as we will probably find out over the week end.

expecting Conservative election "win", Labour government by Monday.

and new election in October.

spring hall convert · May 7, 2015

Notters said:
None of the above. Labour minority government.

Yup.

Uncle Buck · May 7, 2015

beorhthelm said:
options confuse the outcome of the election with who would form the next government. the two are different as we will probably find out over the week end.

expecting Conservative election "win", Labour government by Monday.

and new election in October.

But are MP's going to vote to overturn the Parliament Act that created these fixed term Parliaments?

In reality there will be a lot of MP's on one term stints (SNP etc), are they going to vote themselves out of a job?

Westdene Seagull · May 7, 2015

Uncle Buck said:
But are MP's going to vote to overturn the Parliament Act that created these fixed term Parliaments?

They don't have to overturn the Act for there to be another election in October.

father_and_son · May 7, 2015

LIB/CON coalition won't be large enough for a majority because the LIBs will get an absolute spanking for their tuition fees reversal this time and not be able to offer the 26 seats that CON need for a majority (they'll have 300). CON will flirt with a threeway CON/LIB/UKIP alliance but only briefly because the LIB and UKIP will refuse to work together and without both the CONs are sunk.

CONs will consider a minority government for a few days but the clamour from the press will be such that they give in and allow a LAB/SNP/PC coalition to be formed - the price of which will be another pointless referendum on Scotland, a promised referendum on Wales that will never materialise and no referendum on EU. The infighting will be horrific and in the end it will end up a dead duck LAB minority government that won't be able to do anything but will refuse to call another election leaving us virtually ungoverned for a little over 4 years when finally an early election will have to be called (late Nov 2019) in the hope that they can ride a pre-christmas wave of goodwill but won't and CON will win with a 2 seat majority next time.

Triggaaar · May 7, 2015

Notters said:
None of the above. Labour minority government.

Indeed,

Blue Valkyrie said:
Not really an 'Exit Poll' is it?

Nope.

Herr Tubthumper said:
Great thread

Yep.

beorhthelm · May 7, 2015

Uncle Buck said:
But are MP's going to vote to overturn the Parliament Act that created these fixed term Parliaments?

In reality there will be a lot of MP's on one term stints (SNP etc), are they going to vote themselves out of a job?

there's provision in the act for a new election if there's a vote of no confidence (unless overruled with vote of confidence within 14 days), or 2/3 of parliament vote for new elections.

Uncle Buck · May 7, 2015

beorhthelm said:
there's provision in the act for a new election if there's a vote of no confidence (unless overruled with vote of confidence within 14 days), or 2/3 of parliament vote for new elections.

But are they actually going to put their jobs at risk?

It may well happen, but the Parliament Act does throw up a potential 5 year deadlock.

Goldstone1976 · May 7, 2015

father_and_son said:
LIB/CON coalition won't be large enough for a majority because the LIBs will get an absolute spanking for their tuition fees reversal this time and not be able to offer the 26 seats that CON need for a majority (they'll have 300). CON will flirt with a threeway CON/LIB/UKIP alliance but only briefly because the LIB and UKIP will refuse to work together and without both the CONs are sunk.

CONs will consider a minority government for a few days but the clamour from the press will be such that they give in and allow a LAB/SNP/PC coalition to be formed - the price of which will be another pointless referendum on Scotland, a promised referendum on Wales that will never materialise and no referendum on EU. The infighting will be horrific and in the end it will end up a dead duck LAB minority government that won't be able to do anything but will refuse to call another election leaving us virtually ungoverned for a little over 4 years when finally an early election will have to be called (late Nov 2019) in the hope that they can ride a pre-christmas wave of goodwill but won't and CON will win with a 2 seat majority next time.

Yep - that's pretty much how I see it panning out, except the con majority in '19 will be closer to 20 than 2...

beorhthelm · May 7, 2015

Uncle Buck said:
But are they actually going to put their jobs at risk?

if they want to maintain credibility and legitimacy, yes. in the event of a queens speech voted against for example, i cant see that the MPs would allow the government to persist, it would call into question their own position as MPs. if a new government can be formed, they have to go back to the people. if a queens speech is passed but so watered down that it no longer represents the manifesto the main party stood on, i see trouble with them getting their programme through back benchers, and by conference season they may decide its time to give up and go back to the people.

Simster · May 7, 2015

I think we'll see the Tories as largest party but a Labour minority government.

The SNP won't let the Tories government as a minority, which means in order for the Tories to govern
a) the Lib Dems will need enough votes to get the over the line to form a majority
b) the Lib Dems choose to work with the Tories over Labour.

If ConDem can't form a majority themselves, then Labour will get their say. They too have the chance of forming a government with the LibDems, but in reality we would need to see a working LabDem majority for that to happen. And here is why Labour have the edge - the SNP might well prop up a Labour minority government on a confidence and supply arrangement, and this is my prediction. I suppose they could insist on a LabDem minority government but that assumes the LibDems have policies that the SNP approve of that Labour don't.

The Fifth Column · May 7, 2015

Just read on the BBC website that it is a criminal offence to publish anything in relation to how people voted whilst the polls are still open!! So does that stretch to discussing on here how you voted or running an exit poll?

GJN1 · May 7, 2015

What really irks me is that this situation is playing right into Boris Johnson's fat, greasy hands...

synavm · May 7, 2015

Labour minority.

c0lz · May 7, 2015

Labour majority win.

I can dream, after all I support B.H.A.

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NSC General Election Exit Poll

NSC General Election Exit Poll

Labour Majority

Conservative Majority

Labour Coalition

Conservative Coalition

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