Predict the General Election outcome

Giraffe · May 6, 2015

Not an easy one this, but I'll start.

I believe the conservatives will get the biggest share of the seats but not enough to form a majority government. They will then seek to form a coaltion with the Lib Dems and the Unionists. Again this may not be enough, but I suspect they will attempt to govern on this basis nonetheless.

If this is the case I predict another general election in October, around Trafalgar Day.

deletebeepbeepbeep · May 6, 2015

I think you are right Giraffe, Cameron will try and cling on with the Lib Dems and Unionists.

Guinness Boy · May 6, 2015

I can see a fairly similar picture to posts 1 and 2. Tories to win the popular vote, Labour to have most seats, neither close to a proper majority, fresh election in the autumn.

Where I differ is who will side with who. Tories / Unionists / UKIP are one natural alliance. Labour could look for the backing of the SNP, Greens and Welsh Nationalists.. The Lib Dems will side with whichever of those two they see doing them the least damage, being pragmatically centerist by nature.

seagullsovergrimsby · May 6, 2015

Labour with one more seat than the Conservatives.

clippedgull · May 6, 2015

Tories to get most seats. Not enough to form majority government.

Labour will go in a coalition with Liberal Democrats (SNP will support this arrangement to keep Cameron out of power)

Cameron will be history!

Tom Hark Preston Park · May 6, 2015

Strange days indeed when Weird Ed comes across as far less of a conviction politician than sleeves-rolled-up Cameron. So... Cameron to nick it on the day, same as Major did v Kinnock in 1992. And just like in 1992, Labour will win by a landslide next time around. But it won't be with Weird Ed at the helm.

Only nailed-on result is for Caroline Lucas to win Brighton Pavilion by a city-wide 20 MPH MILE.

Captain Sensible · May 6, 2015

I think the SNP might not quite hit those 55seats north of the boarder. It's very close in around half of seats, so far we've only seen the 'share of the vote' figure of 50%. Considering most polls are conducted in Glasgow I don't doubt that. Whether that transfers into seats is another question. I can see the SNP winning about 35-40 seats with a lot of tactical voting. Giving Labour around 290, they might try to form a minority with Plaid, Green and Lib dems. Labour knowing SNP will vote a lot of labour policies through too. Not only that but on the policies where Labour disagree with the SNP, Labour agree with the Tories. So that's why Milliband can confirm he won't do a deal with the SNP, because he doesn't have to.

Norman Potting · May 6, 2015

"Whoever you vote for the Government always wins". Not sure to whom this quote is attributable - suspect Rex Cathedra will be along in a minute to enlighten me!

El Sid · May 6, 2015

0-0

LibDems relegated.

Nige will run off with Nicola.

Tom Hark Preston Park · May 6, 2015

Reckon at least two party leaders will announce their retirement from front line politics more or less immediately after the result.

happypig · May 6, 2015

I don't think the LibDems will go in with the Tories again, they got enough stick last time and struggled to keep all their MPs under the whip; propping up a minority Tory administration would lead to some MPs defecting or going independent. I can foresee the smallest number of LD MPs for a long time and them not being in a position to make a difference.
We could see a Labour/SNP coalition with Alex Salmond as deputy PM but if they cannot reach an agreement I think Cameron will try and form a minority government, have his Queen's speech blocked by Labour/SNP and another election (before October, possibly July)

TomandJerry · May 6, 2015

Boris Johnson IN

East Preston Gull · May 6, 2015

Snp clean sweep, tory majority, ukip 9 seats, labour decimated, lib dems finished!!

peterward · May 6, 2015

Giraffe said:
Not an easy one this, but I'll start.

I believe the conservatives will get the biggest share of the seats but not enough to form a majority government. They will then seek to form a coaltion with the Lib Dems and the Unionists. Again this may not be enough, but I suspect they will attempt to govern on this basis nonetheless.

If this is the case I predict another general election in October, around Trafalgar Day.

Not been watching channel 4 news at 7 Giraffe?

They reported that senior Trade Union figures have told them they are urging Milliband (even if Labour get less seats) to strike immediately and offer the Lib Dems, a change of voting system, and to do a deal with them that will trump any attempts the Tories may make to try and build a coalition.

Lord Bracknell · May 6, 2015

The Lib Dems will dump the Tories and shack up with Labour, even though this will be a minority government. The SNP won't vote this coalition down, not because they have done a deal with Labour, but because they know this gets rid of the Tories in government. If the Tories do a deal with anyone, though, the SNP will combine with other parties to vote down the Queen' s Speech and either a fresh election will be called or the Labour - Lib Dem coalition will take over.

peterward · May 6, 2015

happypig said:
I don't think the LibDems will go in with the Tories again, they got enough stick last time and struggled to keep all their MPs under the whip; propping up a minority Tory administration would lead to some MPs defecting or going independent. I can foresee the smallest number of LD MPs for a long time and them not being in a position to make a difference.
We could see a Labour/SNP coalition with Alex Salmond as deputy PM but if they cannot reach an agreement I think Cameron will try and form a minority government, have his Queen's speech blocked by Labour/SNP and another election (before October, possibly July)

Lab/SNP with Alex Salmond as deputy PM..... what are you smoking?

Labour are shameless incompetent Liars, but even they wouldnt do something quite as stupid.... it would be their last ever time in government. the LDs suffered for reneging on tuition fees. After all of Millibands promises it would be the beginning of the end

Lord Bracknell · May 6, 2015

peterward said:
Not been watching channel 4 news at 7 Giraffe?

They reported that senior Trade Union figures have told them they are urging Milliband (even if Labour get less seats) to strike immediately and offer the Lib Dems, a change of voting system, and to do a deal with them that will trump any attempts the Tories may make to try and build a coalition.

That's consistent with my prediction above.

Mellor 3 Ward 4 · May 6, 2015

peterward said:
Not been watching channel 4 news at 7 Giraffe?

They reported that senior Trade Union figures have told them they are urging Milliband (even if Labour get less seats) to strike immediately and offer the Lib Dems, a change of voting system, and to do a deal with them that will trump any attempts the Tories may make to try and build a coalition.

Clegg has said that he will speak first to whoever wins the most seats. Quite right too.

Norman Potting · May 6, 2015

Lord Bracknell said:
The Lib Dems will dump the Tories and shack up with Labour, even though this will be a minority government. The SNP won't vote this coalition down, not because they have done a deal with Labour, but because they know this gets rid of the Tories in government. If the Tories do a deal with anyone, though, the SNP will combine with other parties to vote down the Queen' s Speech and either a fresh election will be called or the Labour - Lib Dem coalition will take over.

Sounds eminently plausible to me.

deletebeepbeepbeep · May 6, 2015

East Preston Gull said:
Snp clean sweep, tory majority, ukip 9 seats, labour decimated, lib dems finished!!

And in the real world!!

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Predict the General Election outcome

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