FTSE / stock market

Springal · May 5, 2015

I know that no one knows for sure, but anyone else think the FTSE might take a knock after the election this week? Already seen it drop over last 2 weeks.

Reason I ask is I have a considerable amount tied up in a stocks & shares cash ISA and need it in about 8 weeks time and I'd rather not see any significant amount wiped from it.

Thoughts ?

portslade seagull · May 5, 2015

If labour get in it will plummett

dazzer6666 · May 5, 2015

Springal said:
I know that no one knows for sure, but anyone else think the FTSE might take a knock after the election this week? Already seen it drop over last 2 weeks.

Reason I ask is I have a considerable amount tied up in a stocks & shares cash ISA and need it in about 8 weeks time and I'd rather not see any significant amount wiped from it.

Thoughts ?

Good question, was just thinking about this today. Half tempted to liquidate ISA funds to cash and wait a few weeks......tricky one.

Cadiz Seagull · May 5, 2015

Stock markets usually discount possible problems affecting the market some time in advance so unless you think something is going to happen that they haven't thought about then I would suggest you are too late.

But as a general rule you should only have money in shares that you aren't going to need - or maybe need - in the relatively near future. The time to liquidate into cash is probably 3 months before you need it, maybe even more.

Even if the market has correctly forecast the result of the election there could always be some unknown and unexpected event that could cause a sudden crash and then you are in the soft and nasty. Something like 9/11.

Don't be greedy. Stocks and shares are a long term investment, not somewhere to have money that you need to get hold of fairly quickly

Springal · May 5, 2015

Cadiz Seagull said:
Stock markets usually discount possible problems affecting the market some time in advance so unless you think something is going to happen that they haven't thought about then I would suggest you are too late.

But as a general rule you should only have money in shares that you aren't going to need - or maybe need - in the relatively near future. The time to liquidate into cash is probably 3 months before you need it, maybe even more.

Even if the market has correctly forecast the result of the election there could always be some unknown and unexpected event that could cause a sudden crash and then you are in the soft and nasty. Something like 9/11.

Don't be greedy. Stocks and shares are a long term investment, not somewhere to have money that you need to get hold of fairly quickly

Thanks. But greedy is a bit harsh. My money has been in there for 6 years, which I think you would agree is quite long term. Always comes a time when you might need it though

tinycowboy · May 5, 2015

As Cadiz Seagull has already said, the market has theoretically already priced in its expectation - presumably of no overall control. The market shouldn't fall therefore unless something unexpected happens. However, markets are never as rational as they are supposed to be, so you might as well toss a coin if you're trying to predict the really short term. Best to de-risk over time - easier said than done though. Sorry to be no help whatsoever!

vegster · May 5, 2015

portslade seagull said:
If labour get in it will plummett

That is because the likes of Cameron and Osborne will then be looking for some nice directorships in the City.

beorhthelm · May 5, 2015

there might be a little negative sentiment if there's a Labour government, a little positive if its Conservative. the FTSE barely reflects the UK economy anymore, dominated by multinationals. and you say its down in two weeks, its up (just) over the last month, so do whats most comfortable.

seagullsslimjim · May 5, 2015

"sell in May and go away until St Ledgers day!"

Cadiz Seagull · May 5, 2015

Springal said:
Thanks. But greedy is a bit harsh. My money has been in there for 6 years, which I think you would agree is quite long term. Always comes a time when you might need it though

Sorry you're right, greedy was a bit harsh. Yes 6 years is a good time to invest in shares but my point was don't hang on till the last minute in the hope of getting a few more percentage points. Nobody, not even Warren Buffett, gets out at the right time unless they are lucky. The best time to sell is before the market reaches the peak but unless you have a time machine you can't know when that will be.

This is going to be absolutely no use to you whatsoever (like lots of things you read on NSC) but the right time to get out was probably at the turn of the year. OK you may miss out on a bit more gain (I don't know if you would have done as I don't follow the market closely these days) but at least you would sleep nights.

timbha · May 5, 2015

Springal said:
I know that no one knows for sure, but anyone else think the FTSE might take a knock after the election this week? Already seen it drop over last 2 weeks.

Reason I ask is I have a considerable amount tied up in a stocks & shares cash ISA and need it in about 8 weeks time and I'd rather not see any significant amount wiped from it.

Thoughts ?

all the above plus....

if you need it in 8 weeks you should already be thinking about withdrawing it soon. You've probably had a good return over the past 6 years (post 2008 recovery) and if it matches your expectations/needs/hopes then why leave it a bit longer in the hope of squeezing a bit more profit? "Leave some profit for the next person". At times of uncertainty (election, political change,etc) there's probably a bigger downside than upside, especially as it's currently at record levels. The "wrong" coalition could harm market confidence.

You could always withdraw some/what you need and speculate with the rest.

Driver8 · May 5, 2015

portslade seagull said:
If labour get in it will plummett

No it won't.

There may be a bit of a sell off but most companies in the FTSE are global and not really bothered who is in charge in the UK.

timbha · May 5, 2015

Springal said:
I know that no one knows for sure, but anyone else think the FTSE might take a knock after the election this week? Already seen it drop over last 2 weeks.

Reason I ask is I have a considerable amount tied up in a stocks & shares cash ISA and need it in about 8 weeks time and I'd rather not see any significant amount wiped from it.

Thoughts ?

I've just read you post more carefully - what do you mean by a stocks & shares cash ISA?

Springal · May 5, 2015

timbha said:
I've just read you post more carefully - what do you mean by a stocks & shares cash ISA?

Sorry just meant stocks & shares ISA.

Thanks all, was never really about seeing significant gains in next 8 weeks, just holding or making back the 1% or so it has lost recently. I'll have a look to cash out tomorrow i think so I know what I have

timbha · May 5, 2015

Springal said:
Sorry just meant stocks & shares ISA.

Thanks all, was never really about seeing significant gains in next 8 weeks, just holding or making back the 1% or so it has lost recently. I'll have a look to cash out tomorrow i think so I know what I have

I got out of S&S a few months ago and although I would have got more if I had left it til now, the relief of having the cash in my pocket was worth it.......it would have been more of a dilemma if I'd wanted to reinvest (given the poor cash rates) rather than spend

alfredmizen · May 5, 2015

Driver8 said:
No it won't.

There may be a bit of a sell off but most companies in the FTSE are global and not really bothered who is in charge in the UK.

Maybe not, but the ftse 250 will , and that IS reflective of the UK economy.

Lower West Stander · May 5, 2015

Driver8 said:
No it won't.

There may be a bit of a sell off but most companies in the FTSE are global and not really bothered who is in charge in the UK.

Tbh I'd be more concerned about a Grexit than the outcome of the election.

Markets haven't priced that in at all and bunds sold off aggressively today.

SweBHAFC · May 6, 2015

seagullsslimjim said:
"sell in May and go away until St Ledgers day!"

This

peterward · May 6, 2015

portslade seagull said:
If labour get in it will plummett

I really dont want the current, lying, gimmick driven hard left labour to get in, however..... the markets will move less with that outcome than if there is weeks of no government haggling or a flimsy minority government.

knocky1 · May 6, 2015

Springal said:
I know that no one knows for sure, but anyone else think the FTSE might take a knock after the election this week? Already seen it drop over last 2 weeks.

Reason I ask is I have a considerable amount tied up in a stocks & shares cash ISA and need it in about 8 weeks time and I'd rather not see any significant amount wiped from it.

Thoughts ?

Bet spreading is for you? Keep the shares and take a position on a falling market. You"ll never sleep again. :lol:

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