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  1. #311
    Join Date
    Sep 2014

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    Quote Originally Posted by Machiavelli View Post
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    I think you're over-estimating the Tory vote here. They got 307 in 2010. The betting market has them in the range of 288-292. Most pollsters have them below that in the 270s. I'm with the pollsters and I'm just holding on to see what the last polls are looking like before putting a SELL on the number of Tory seats.
    This is well worth looking at. According to polling in the key swing seats -- and especially the CON-LAB marginals -- the Tories will need sizeable swings from their current position in these key seats (note, not in national polls) in order for them to get into the 280s and beyond:
    That's interesting. Let's see. Maybe I have not done enough analyses on the marginals which is what it's all about. I delegated a lot of it to dazzer6666.


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