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  1. #311
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimbob5 View Post
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    Just to confirm my prediction. Tories will have about the same number of seats as last time. Labour more in England but less in Scotland. Lib Dems will have about 15-20 less seats. SNP a few more and UKIP a negligible 5 or so max.
    The Tories will just about be the largest party. For them it will be a Hobson's choice to continue the same coalition with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will agree because 1 the Tories have the most seats which Clegg had hinted was a major factor in the choice 2 the other option to go with Labour would mean too weak a majority collectively and 3 continuity.
    It will still be interesting but I think you'll find I'm right. IMHO
    I think you're over-estimating the Tory vote here. They got 307 in 2010. The betting market has them in the range of 288-292. Most pollsters have them below that in the 270s. I'm with the pollsters and I'm just holding on to see what the last polls are looking like before putting a SELL on the number of Tory seats.
    This is well worth looking at. According to polling in the key swing seats -- and especially the CON-LAB marginals -- the Tories will need sizeable swings from their current position in these key seats (note, not in national polls) in order for them to get into the 280s and beyond:

    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

    http://may2015.com/featured/election...meron-can-win/

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    • #312
      Members dazzer6666's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by jimbob5 View Post
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      But you must be intelligent and clinical if you have made the same analyses based prediction as me! But then, maybe like a lot of great men, like me, you are fairly self depreciating and humble.
      Pretty much. And a lazy barstard......
      "Prejudice is a great time saver. You can form opinions without having to get the facts"
    • #313
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      Quote Originally Posted by jimbob5 View Post
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      Just to confirm my prediction. Tories will have about the same number of seats as last time. Labour more in England but less in Scotland. Lib Dems will have about 15-20 less seats. SNP a few more and UKIP a negligible 5 or so max.
      The Tories will just about be the largest party. For them it will be a Hobson's choice to continue the same coalition with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will agree because 1 the Tories have the most seats which Clegg had hinted was a major factor in the choice 2 the other option to go with Labour would mean too weak a majority collectively and 3 continuity.
      It will still be interesting but I think you'll find I'm right. IMHO
      No one will support the Tories with their manifesto. Unless they get a majority or close the Tories will be dead in the water
    • #314
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      Quote Originally Posted by Machiavelli View Post
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      I think you're over-estimating the Tory vote here. They got 307 in 2010. The betting market has them in the range of 288-292. Most pollsters have them below that in the 270s. I'm with the pollsters and I'm just holding on to see what the last polls are looking like before putting a SELL on the number of Tory seats.
      This is well worth looking at. According to polling in the key swing seats -- and especially the CON-LAB marginals -- the Tories will need sizeable swings from their current position in these key seats (note, not in national polls) in order for them to get into the 280s and beyond:

      http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

      http://may2015.com/featured/election...meron-can-win/
      That's interesting. Let's see. Maybe I have not done enough analyses on the marginals which is what it's all about. I delegated a lot of it to dazzer6666.
    • #315
      Members dazzer6666's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by jimbob5 View Post
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      That's interesting. Let's see. Maybe I have not done enough analyses on the marginals which is what it's all about. I delegated a lot of it to dazzer6666.
      I'm just updating my spreadsheets. Will report back later.
      "Prejudice is a great time saver. You can form opinions without having to get the facts"
    • #316
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      Cameron won hands down when it mattered. I was impressed, but then I'm like a stick of rock. Cut me in bits and you'll always see Tory Boy.
    • #317
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      Quote Originally Posted by jimbob5 View Post
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      Cameron won hands down when it mattered. I was impressed, but then I'm like a stick of rock. Cut me in bits and you'll always see Tory Boy.
      OK not really
    • #318
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      Quote Originally Posted by jimbob5 View Post
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      Just to confirm my prediction. Tories will have about the same number of seats as last time. Labour more in England but less in Scotland. Lib Dems will have about 15-20 less seats. SNP a few more and UKIP a negligible 5 or so max.
      The Tories will just about be the largest party. For them it will be a Hobson's choice to continue the same coalition with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will agree because 1 the Tories have the most seats which Clegg had hinted was a major factor in the choice 2 the other option to go with Labour would mean too weak a majority collectively and 3 continuity.
      It will still be interesting but I think you'll find I'm right. IMHO
      Life experience my dear boys. Though to be fair I think I should have said 'fewer' votes rather than 'less' votes. I don't pretend to be perfect.
      Last edited by jimbob5; 07-05-2015 at 23:41.
    • #319
      Members Steve.S's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Simster View Post
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      They absolutely are nailed on for Calcton:
      http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/.../winning-party

      They are ahead in Thurrock:
      http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/.../winning-party

      ...and South Thanet:
      http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/.../winning-party


      The spread for total UKIP seats is 2.5, so probably 3 or 4, maybe 1 or 5:
      http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...tal-seats-ukip
      Not looking good for UKIP
    • #320
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      Quote Originally Posted by Machiavelli View Post
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      I think you're over-estimating the Tory vote here. They got 307 in 2010. The betting market has them in the range of 288-292. Most pollsters have them below that in the 270s. I'm with the pollsters and I'm just holding on to see what the last polls are looking like before putting a SELL on the number of Tory seats.
      This is well worth looking at. According to polling in the key swing seats -- and especially the CON-LAB marginals -- the Tories will need sizeable swings from their current position in these key seats (note, not in national polls) in order for them to get into the 280s and beyond:

      http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

      http://may2015.com/featured/election...meron-can-win/
      Well. I was surprised the SNP did quite so well and the Lib Dems quite so bad, but I'm surprised peeps are surprised that the Tories won [ok will win technically]. History tells us that a lot of people don't admit to voting Tory, but more to the point, when it comes to the marginals, the Tory voters tend to turn out in force

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