Cameron v Miliband v Clegg: the official Question Time match thread

Deleted member 22389 · May 4, 2015

Brighton4Cambridge3 said:
New poll showed him 9 Poins ahead. Scoobie (Labour) made a massive error by inviting UAF down to South Thanet and people didn't respond to it.

Trust is important is politics and Labour have lost that. They can't be trusted on business and they certainly can't be trusted on immigration and the EU.

Hampster Gull · May 4, 2015

bashlsdir said:
Trust is important is politics and Labour have lost that. They can't be trusted on business and they certainly can't be trusted on immigration and the EU.

They are a party who are in denial. When there is contrition i will take them more seriously

pastafarian · May 4, 2015

Hampster Gull said:
They are a party who are in denial. When there is contrition i will take them more seriously

You are never going to get full contrition on taking us into an illegal war or opening up the borders for political gain........you might get a small dose of holding your hands up but that will swiftly be followed by a massive dose of Meh and a :shrug:

......i wouldnt hold your breath waiting for contrition

dazzer6666 · May 4, 2015

jimbob5 said:
Just to confirm my prediction. Tories will have about the same number of seats as last time. Labour more in England but less in Scotland. Lib Dems will have about 15-20 less seats. SNP a few more and UKIP a negligible 5 or so max.
The Tories will just about be the largest party. For them it will be a Hobson's choice to continue the same coalition with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will agree because 1 the Tories have the most seats which Clegg had hinted was a major factor in the choice 2 the other option to go with Labour would mean too weak a majority collectively and 3 continuity.
It will still be interesting but I think you'll find I'm right. IMHO

Good shout, that's what I'm expecting

jimbob5 · May 4, 2015

dazzer6666 said:
Good shout, that's what I'm expecting

Thanks for that. With our intelligent and clinical analyses, albeit humble for my part at least, I think Thursday will just be going through the motions to arrive at our predicted result.

dazzer6666 · May 4, 2015

jimbob5 said:
Thanks for that with our intelligent and clinical analyses, albeit humble for my part at least, I think Thursday will just be going through the motions to arrive at our predicted result.

Yeah well got nothing more to add really. Apologies for not being intelligent or clinical, but someone's said it for me.

jimbob5 · May 4, 2015

dazzer6666 said:
Yeah well got nothing more to add really. Apologies for not being intelligent or clinical, but someone's said it for me.

But you must be intelligent and clinical if you have made the same analyses based prediction as me! But then, maybe like a lot of great men, like me, you are fairly self depreciating and humble.

Machiavelli · May 4, 2015

jimbob5 said:
Just to confirm my prediction. Tories will have about the same number of seats as last time. Labour more in England but less in Scotland. Lib Dems will have about 15-20 less seats. SNP a few more and UKIP a negligible 5 or so max.
The Tories will just about be the largest party. For them it will be a Hobson's choice to continue the same coalition with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will agree because 1 the Tories have the most seats which Clegg had hinted was a major factor in the choice 2 the other option to go with Labour would mean too weak a majority collectively and 3 continuity.
It will still be interesting but I think you'll find I'm right. IMHO

I think you're over-estimating the Tory vote here. They got 307 in 2010. The betting market has them in the range of 288-292. Most pollsters have them below that in the 270s. I'm with the pollsters and I'm just holding on to see what the last polls are looking like before putting a SELL on the number of Tory seats.
This is well worth looking at. According to polling in the key swing seats -- and especially the CON-LAB marginals -- the Tories will need sizeable swings from their current position in these key seats (note, not in national polls) in order for them to get into the 280s and beyond:

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

http://may2015.com/featured/electio...redictions-now-suggest-david-cameron-can-win/

dazzer6666 · May 4, 2015

jimbob5 said:
But you must be intelligent and clinical if you have made the same analyses based prediction as me! But then, maybe like a lot of great men, like me, you are fairly self depreciating and humble.

Pretty much. And a lazy barstard......

Steve.S · May 4, 2015

jimbob5 said:
Just to confirm my prediction. Tories will have about the same number of seats as last time. Labour more in England but less in Scotland. Lib Dems will have about 15-20 less seats. SNP a few more and UKIP a negligible 5 or so max.
The Tories will just about be the largest party. For them it will be a Hobson's choice to continue the same coalition with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will agree because 1 the Tories have the most seats which Clegg had hinted was a major factor in the choice 2 the other option to go with Labour would mean too weak a majority collectively and 3 continuity.
It will still be interesting but I think you'll find I'm right. IMHO

No one will support the Tories with their manifesto. Unless they get a majority or close the Tories will be dead in the water

jimbob5 · May 4, 2015

Machiavelli said:
I think you're over-estimating the Tory vote here. They got 307 in 2010. The betting market has them in the range of 288-292. Most pollsters have them below that in the 270s. I'm with the pollsters and I'm just holding on to see what the last polls are looking like before putting a SELL on the number of Tory seats.
This is well worth looking at. According to polling in the key swing seats -- and especially the CON-LAB marginals -- the Tories will need sizeable swings from their current position in these key seats (note, not in national polls) in order for them to get into the 280s and beyond:

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

http://may2015.com/featured/electio...redictions-now-suggest-david-cameron-can-win/

That's interesting. Let's see. Maybe I have not done enough analyses on the marginals which is what it's all about. I delegated a lot of it to dazzer6666.

dazzer6666 · May 4, 2015

jimbob5 said:
That's interesting. Let's see. Maybe I have not done enough analyses on the marginals which is what it's all about. I delegated a lot of it to dazzer6666.

I'm just updating my spreadsheets. Will report back later.

jimbob5 · May 7, 2015

Cameron won hands down when it mattered. I was impressed, but then I'm like a stick of rock. Cut me in bits and you'll always see Tory Boy.

jimbob5 · May 7, 2015

jimbob5 said:
Cameron won hands down when it mattered. I was impressed, but then I'm like a stick of rock. Cut me in bits and you'll always see Tory Boy.

OK not really

jimbob5 · May 7, 2015

jimbob5 said:
Just to confirm my prediction. Tories will have about the same number of seats as last time. Labour more in England but less in Scotland. Lib Dems will have about 15-20 less seats. SNP a few more and UKIP a negligible 5 or so max.
The Tories will just about be the largest party. For them it will be a Hobson's choice to continue the same coalition with the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will agree because 1 the Tories have the most seats which Clegg had hinted was a major factor in the choice 2 the other option to go with Labour would mean too weak a majority collectively and 3 continuity.
It will still be interesting but I think you'll find I'm right. IMHO

Life experience my dear boys. Though to be fair I think I should have said 'fewer' votes rather than 'less' votes. I don't pretend to be perfect.

Steve.S · May 8, 2015

Simster said:
They absolutely are nailed on for Calcton:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/clacton/winning-party

They are ahead in Thurrock:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thurrock/winning-party

...and South Thanet:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thanet-south/winning-party

The spread for total UKIP seats is 2.5, so probably 3 or 4, maybe 1 or 5:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip

Not looking good for UKIP

jimbob5 · May 8, 2015

Machiavelli said:
I think you're over-estimating the Tory vote here. They got 307 in 2010. The betting market has them in the range of 288-292. Most pollsters have them below that in the 270s. I'm with the pollsters and I'm just holding on to see what the last polls are looking like before putting a SELL on the number of Tory seats.
This is well worth looking at. According to polling in the key swing seats -- and especially the CON-LAB marginals -- the Tories will need sizeable swings from their current position in these key seats (note, not in national polls) in order for them to get into the 280s and beyond:

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

http://may2015.com/featured/electio...redictions-now-suggest-david-cameron-can-win/

Well. I was surprised the SNP did quite so well and the Lib Dems quite so bad, but I'm surprised peeps are surprised that the Tories won [ok will win technically]. History tells us that a lot of people don't admit to voting Tory, but more to the point, when it comes to the marginals, the Tory voters tend to turn out in force

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