Statistics or Talent?

Gluteus Maximus · Mar 10, 2015

Looking at this article in the Argus yesterday, it does shed some light on the last couple of years transfer dealings and methods and to some extent gives me a bit more sympathy towards Oscar and Hyppia. It seems recruitment certainly had been transformed into a statistical process, at Bloom's request and that perhaps now we are moving away from it. 4 analysts FFS! Seems to me that Bloom was drawn into a competition with his old business rival Benham at Brentford, both eager to prove that their mathematical methods would succeed. Living in Denmark I also know that Benham's methods have been used at FC Midtjylland that currently top the Danish Superliga by a fair margin. Articles here have described their new analytical and statistical approach to transfers, team selection and tactics, all at the behest of Benham. While Benham seems to be going full out this method, parting with Warburton in the process, it seems perhaps now with Hughton that Bloom has been forced to see common sense and bring back more of a human aspect to the process. Reading about Benham's methods at FC Midtjylland it does make me wonder about the extent of Bloom's influence right to the heart of the team in the last couple of years, not from personal interference but from the methods he wanted used. Whilst still retaining 4 analysts, to me at least it seems with Hughton and buys like Kayal that we are combining a modern statistical approach with a more traditional manager role in selection and recruitment. To me it would also explain a lot of Poyet's disenchantment, more so than financial limitations. I hope statistics will never stifle talent, otherwise we will end with a team of JFC's and Gary Gardners.

B.W. · Mar 10, 2015

Difficult to assess at this stage. I would say the summer window will reveal whether the new recruitment setup is an improvement. It will struggle to be worse.

Stat Brother · Mar 10, 2015

We can't afford talent.

Statistics have been seriously undervalued in football, esp 'run around a lot and tackle hard' English football.

What that article proves is if one key piece of the whole jigsaw is wrong, you're in trouble.
Two pieces and you're fooked all ends up.

A lot of football will be looking closely at Brentford next season.
Many desperate for failure, but it would seem Tony will looking for their success.

KZNSeagull · Mar 10, 2015

It's something to keep any eye on - I guess that there has to be a happy medium between the two. The question we do not know the answer to is how many of the current Brentford squad were picked using the moneyball approach?

Gluteus Maximus · Mar 10, 2015

Stat Brother said:
What that article proves is if one key piece of the whole jigsaw is wrong, you're in trouble.
Two pieces and you're fooked all ends up.
A lot of football will be looking closely at Brentford next season.
Many desperate for failure, but it would seem Tony will looking for their success.

Agree entirely. FC Midtjylland is being used as a laboratory for Brentford and it is working at the moment. But it's hard to agree with the methods:
"Data also informs what Midtjylland’s coaches say to the players and the press. As Ankersen explains, at half-time the coaches are sent texts before they speak to players outlining how the team are measuring up to certain key metrics. “These effective KPIs give a more accurate message to the players and the press,” he insists."

Unless you are winning of course....

Sleaford Seagull · Mar 10, 2015

It works for nearly all other areas of business so I can't see why it wouldn't work to an extent in Football.
The key would surely be to have the most skilled team of analysts and scouts, and considering our Chairman is incredibly successful with the analysts and statistics he uses for his other areas of business, well I think that if anyone could make this system successful it would be us.

Whatever the current process is, I'm looking forward to seeing what business we do in the Summer.

GT49er · Mar 10, 2015

So long as we get the balance right, I guess.

Manager - supported by scouting set-up;
Scouting set-up supported by mathematical models and statistics.

......but not the other way round!

Gluteus Maximus · Mar 10, 2015

Imagine the outcry if Hyppia had been receiving texts at half time, whose fault then?

simballs · Mar 10, 2015

I'm all for the club using new techniques to try to be successful.
Reemploying or using to a greater extent the human element seems a no brainer to me.
It is often when statistical data is overused when things go awry. All the statistics used are past data and can in no way be relied upon to predict future events especially if the event has not occurred in the data set being analysed. There's also too many variables in football that data won't capture such as will the player settle well in the south as opposed to up north or in England as opposed to Spain. Human involvement can compliment this nicely.
Looks as though the club are going in the right direction now with this.

wallyback · Mar 10, 2015

Amazing that Chris Hughton is our oldest ever manager!

Can't believe he isolder than Archie Macauley was when he was manager in the 60s.

Thunder Bolt · Mar 10, 2015

Gluteus Maximus said:
Looking at this article in the Argus yesterday, it does shed some light on the last couple of years transfer dealings and methods and to some extent gives me a bit more sympathy towards Oscar and Hyppia. It seems recruitment certainly had been transformed into a statistical process, at Bloom's request and that perhaps now we are moving away from it. 4 analysts FFS! Seems to me that Bloom was drawn into a competition with his old business rival Benham at Brentford, both eager to prove that their mathematical methods would succeed. Living in Denmark I also know that Benham's methods have been used at FC Midtjylland that currently top the Danish Superliga by a fair margin. Articles here have described their new analytical and statistical approach to transfers, team selection and tactics, all at the behest of Benham. While Benham seems to be going full out this method, parting with Warburton in the process, it seems perhaps now with Hughton that Bloom has been forced to see common sense and bring back more of a human aspect to the process. Reading about Benham's methods at FC Midtjylland it does make me wonder about the extent of Bloom's influence right to the heart of the team in the last couple of years, not from personal interference but from the methods he wanted used. Whilst still retaining 4 analysts, to me at least it seems with Hughton and buys like Kayal that we are combining a modern statistical approach with a more traditional manager role in selection and recruitment. To me it would also explain a lot of Poyet's disenchantment, more so than financial limitations. I hope statistics will never stifle talent, otherwise we will end with a team of JFC's and Gary Gardners.

Good post apart from the needless dig at JFC.

symyjym · Mar 10, 2015

Gluteus Maximus said:
To me it would also explain a lot of Poyet's disenchantment, more so than financial limitations.

Although I doubt that Poyet could be trusted with full control and an open cheque book. Letting Murray go is testament to that. With Hughton and the new scouting setup we will know that all recruiting decisions will be part of a rational process. I think with Poyet one needs a Burke type, but one can have faith and let go with Hughton.

maltaseagull · Mar 10, 2015

Sleaford Seagull said:
It works for nearly all other areas of business so I can't see why it wouldn't work to an extent in Football.
The key would surely be to have the most skilled team of analysts and scouts, and considering our Chairman is incredibly successful with the analysts and statistics he uses for his other areas of business, well I think that if anyone could make this system successful it would be us.

Whatever the current process is, I'm looking forward to seeing what business we do in the Summer.

I am sure that we will have a competitive squad by September

Gluteus Maximus · Mar 10, 2015

Thunder Bolt said:
Good post apart from the needless dig at JFC.

Wasn't meant to be a dig at JFC, he does what he does well, but do we want a whole team full of people that run a lot, complete a lot small passes and look statistically great, but without the flair or leadership. Like most people have said, there is a balance to be reached. My point being that Benham is going for it big time with FC Midtjylland as his experiment. Gareth Bale's statistics are probably a bit crap at the moment, but I'd still have him over JFC... (not a dig, an opinion).

BigGully · Mar 10, 2015

Its just another aspect of interpreting the quality of players, away from the stars there is a plethora of similar talented players so you have to try to identify value where you can.

You can use data and stats or leave it to a manager that might like big players, tough players, technical players or whatever.

Ideally you hope that everything agrees, your personal eye and the stats and then you win a few football matches, but most managers that dont rely so much on data etc. fail anyways, so you pays your money and takes your chance.

el punal · Mar 10, 2015

wallyback said:
Amazing that Chris Hughton is our oldest ever manager!

Can't believe he isolder than Archie Macauley was when he was manager in the 60s.

Really? Archie Macauley always reminded me of an aged milkman.

Thunder Bolt · Mar 10, 2015

Gluteus Maximus said:
Wasn't meant to be a dig at JFC, he does what he does well, but do we want a whole team full of people that run a lot, complete a lot small passes and look statistically great, but without the flair or leadership. Like most people have said, there is a balance to be reached. My point being that Benham is going for it big time with FC Midtjylland as his experiment. Gareth Bale's statistics are probably a bit crap at the moment, but I'd still have him over JFC... (not a dig, an opinion).

It would help JFC stats if he was played in his correct position.

Not Andy Naylor · Mar 10, 2015

The problem with trying to adapt the Moneyball approach to football is that too much of what happens on a football pitch is hard to quantify. Okay, you can measure pass completion percentage, count the miles that players run, the number of tackles won etc - and the stats may help in the early stages by throwing out the names of players who warrant further investigation - but you still need scouting to look at players' body language, whether they are good talkers on the field, if they hide when things are going badly, if they do the work off the ball that isn't measured. And find out a bit about their attitude and off-the-field and refuelling habits - not mentioning any names.

Stats tell a part of the story. John Stones at Everton is held up as a promising defender of the type around whom a future England team could be built, because he's comfortable on the ball and keeps possession. I'll bet his stats are great. The minor problem when I last saw him was that he couldn't actually defend. His positioning was poor, and he misjudged his jump for a header and Everton conceded a goal as a result.

For those who haven't read Moneyball, the book, it's about the search for undervalued attributes in baseball that allowed a small-market team (the Oakland Athletics) to compete by identifying players whose qualities richer rivals don't fully appreciate. But since the book was published, the other teams have all wised up and everyone is looking for the same things. Footb all clubs have been trying to do the same for about the same length of time, and I still don't think anyone has identified the magic stat, the equivalent of on-base percentage in baseball. It might not exist, of course. .

Terry Butcher Tribute Act · Mar 10, 2015

Thunder Bolt said:
It would help JFC stats if he was played in his correct position.

Not sure about that. Apparently JFC has comfortably the best stats in our squad, which might explain why even Bloom has now realised you can't rely on them!

ditchy · Mar 10, 2015

Sleaford Seagull said:
It works for nearly all other areas of business so I can't see why it wouldn't work to an extent in Football.
The key would surely be to have the most skilled team of analysts and scouts, and considering our Chairman is incredibly successful with the analysts and statistics he uses for his other areas of business, well I think that if anyone could make this system successful it would be us.

Whatever the current process is, I'm looking forward to seeing what business we do in the Summer.

So where did/does Paddy fit into that ?

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