Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

Lies, dammed lies and statistics



Dolph Ins

Well-known member
May 26, 2014
1,525
Mid Sussex
Thanks to whoever posted about whoscored.com. It is an amazing resource and I have just lost a couple of hours of my life I wont get back. As the title suggests I don't think statistics are everything but they do sometimes help me make sense of a game I have watched and don't understand the outcome.

So after our, so far, pretty awful season it was quite surprising to see that we have the 6th best poss % in the league, 3rd best aggression (not sure that's so great), 5th best ariel duels won, 4th best shots per game, 3rd best passing accuracy and we are ranked 11th for overall ratings. Not what you would expect from a team flirting with relegation.

If we put out our team with the best ratings ignoring loanees who have gone back we would play (rating position) Walton(2), j. Bennett(5), Dunk(1), Greer(3), Inigo(7), Ince(9), Holla(13), Bruno(11), JFC(12), Joe Tex(4), KLL(6), March(14). Sorry about our forward but they scored Baldock(18), COG(25) and CMS(27).

With regard to Jake he has made 24 apps (Stockdale 25 has made more), his pass sucess is 82.3%, his average rating is 6.8 (12th in squad, 10th without returned loanees) AND HE IS 20 YEARS OLD. Ok I know you will say 'it's not difficult passing 80% if they are all backwards and sideways'. Anyway as the title says lies, dammed lies and statistics!???
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,199
The Fatherland
Dammed?
 




mothy

Well-known member
Dec 30, 2012
2,094
Statistics as used by Liverpool meant Andy carrol was worth £30m

Pass completion in football isn't as an important stat as American football.
 


Superphil

Dismember
Jul 7, 2003
25,401
In a pile of football shirts
Gus was a statistics freak, down to the nth degree on every single aspect of a game, he did alright with us, mostly.
 




Thanks to whoever posted about whoscored.com. It is an amazing resource and I have just lost a couple of hours of my life I wont get back. As the title suggests I don't think statistics are everything but they do sometimes help me make sense of a game I have watched and don't understand the outcome.

So after our, so far, pretty awful season it was quite surprising to see that we have the 6th best poss % in the league, 3rd best aggression (not sure that's so great), 5th best ariel duels won, 4th best shots per game, 3rd best passing accuracy and we are ranked 11th for overall ratings. Not what you would expect from a team flirting with relegation.

If we put out our team with the best ratings ignoring loanees who have gone back we would play (rating position) Walton(2), j. Bennett(5), Dunk(1), Greer(3), Inigo(7), Ince(9), Holla(13), Bruno(11), JFC(12), Joe Tex(4), KLL(6), March(14). Sorry about our forward but they scored Baldock(18), COG(25) and CMS(27).

With regard to Jake he has made 24 apps (Stockdale 25 has made more), his pass sucess is 82.3%, his average rating is 6.8 (12th in squad, 10th without returned loanees) AND HE IS 20 YEARS OLD. Ok I know you will say 'it's not difficult passing 80% if they are all backwards and sideways'. Anyway as the title says lies, dammed lies and statistics!???

I would rather believe my own eyes when it comes to JFC.
 




Acker79

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Nov 15, 2008
31,765
Brighton
I love statistics, but it's important to keep them in perspective.

This is their explanation of whoscoered's ratings, as posted in the ratings thread
Their rating system:

WhoScored.com Ratings are considered to be the most accurate, respected and well-known performance indicators in the world of football. Our ratings are currently used among media giants, bookmakers and football clubs.

WhoScored.com Ratings are based on a unique, comprehensive statistical algorithm, calculated live during the game. There are over 200 raw statistics included in the calculation of a player’s/team’s rating, weighted according to their influence within the game. Every event of importance is taken into account, with a positive or negative effect on ratings weighted in relation to its area on the pitch and its outcome.

An example: An attempted dribble (event) in the opposition’s final third (area of pitch) that is successful (outcome) will have a positive effect on a player's rating.

The scoring system for the ratings is out of 10, starting from 6.0, with 10 being the highest score. The ratings are updated live every 30 seconds during the game. Our data providers Opta will update and adjust statistics where necessary 5 minutes after the final whistle. The statistics, and therefore ratings, are also subject to change at anytime after the game, due to any further corrections that need to be made to the statistics.

A green star will be awarded to the man of the match 10 minutes after full time. Between that time player's ratings are subject to increase or decrease based on the number of goals a team has scored or conceded, and whether the team has kept a clean sheet. Such boosts in rating are affected by an individual's playing position and their time on the pitch. For example, while a forward will receive a significantly lower boost for a clean sheet than a goalkeeper, he will also suffer a lower decrease in rating if his side has conceded a goal.

The problems with this are:

-Why start at 6? Admittedly, as long as everyone starts at the same point it doesn't make a huge difference, but that's quite an arbitrary number to start at. You can get worse by 6 points, but can only improve by 4.
-Who decides how many points each aspect of the game is worth? Whether a cross that is met is worth more than a shot that is blocked or less than a dribble across the box or more than a ball into the channel etc
-When it is solely based on statistics, it doesn't have context - a player who takes a shot on target gets plus points regardless of it being a soft shot straight at the keeper, regardless of a team mate being open to the left in a better position to shoot from
-At some point in this system there is a human being, someone watching a game and making a personal judgement call between whether a shot that is blocked early is on target or off, if that dribble long enough to be a long dribble or if it is just a medium dribble, is that a goal scoring opportunity or was the ball bouncing too much/too crowded/too tight an angle/etc, an increased amount of mistaken identity if the person tracking the information isn't that familiar (JFC has been credited with assisting one of the goals v Arsenal, when he didn't assist either of them (Holla assisted one, and a combination of Calderon and Baldock pressuring Arsenal defenders into mistakes assisted the other), last season there were a couple of occasions where Dean Hammond (4) was credited with something Calderon (14) did) - fans will get players mixed up occasionally, but people who aren't as familiar will make more mistakes.

Ratings out of ten (or any number, really) are fun, but subjective and affected by personal bias, view point, player's position/instructions from the manager and are way down the list of statistics that actually show anything useful. Trying to make it more scientific, as whoscored appear to have done, removes context which includes removing decision making - a massively important aspect of a player's performance, and full impact on a game (such as the oft repeated argument that 60% possession means nothing if it's just passing the ball around your defence).
 




perseus

Broad Blue & White stripe
Jul 5, 2003
23,454
Sūþseaxna
Intuition comes first. Stats, I would use, to check what is going on.

The only thing that stands good for the Albion is our passing, but it is all going to pot under Chris Hughton.

I have been watching Who Scored stats since the beginning of the season and put the links on the Official Match Day Thread early on.

Under Hyypia it was quite good stats except for the alarming

1) Defending against attacks down the wings Weak

Under Hughton the Passing has already gone down from 83% to 79% and we were second in the Possession stakes and now we are down to sixth.

I am getting fed up with the Hughton style already, getting the ball forward quickly just means we lose it quickly.
 




Tarpon

Well-known member
Sep 12, 2013
3,785
BN1
Thanks to whoever posted about whoscored.com. It is an amazing resource and I have just lost a couple of hours of my life I wont get back. As the title suggests I don't think statistics are everything but they do sometimes help me make sense of a game I have watched and don't understand the outcome.

So after our, so far, pretty awful season it was quite surprising to see that we have the 6th best poss % in the league, 3rd best aggression (not sure that's so great), 5th best ariel duels won, 4th best shots per game, 3rd best passing accuracy and we are ranked 11th for overall ratings. Not what you would expect from a team flirting with relegation.

If we put out our team with the best ratings ignoring loanees who have gone back we would play (rating position) Walton(2), j. Bennett(5), Dunk(1), Greer(3), Inigo(7), Ince(9), Holla(13), Bruno(11), JFC(12), Joe Tex(4), KLL(6), March(14). Sorry about our forward but they scored Baldock(18), COG(25) and CMS(27).

With regard to Jake he has made 24 apps (Stockdale 25 has made more), his pass sucess is 82.3%, his average rating is 6.8 (12th in squad, 10th without returned loanees) AND HE IS 20 YEARS OLD. Ok I know you will say 'it's not difficult passing 80% if they are all backwards and sideways'. Anyway as the title says lies, dammed lies and statistics!???

If you have not already read it you might enjoy this:

image.jpg
 
Last edited:






RexCathedra

Aurea Mediocritas
Jan 14, 2005
3,498
Vacationland
So too, presumably, might Poyet, Garcia, Hyppia, Southgate and Hughton.
It being Sunday, and all, I just looked up the 39 Articles of Faith, and lo and behold there are now 40 of them!

The 40th -- "Jake Forster Caskey is pants."

Here endeth the lesson.
.
 








Acker79

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Nov 15, 2008
31,765
Brighton
It would certainly be interesting to hear their rationale.

Probably along the lines of:

GP: I only used him a handful of times, and I loaned him out. I saw potential in him, but didn't think he was anywhere near ready to be a regular first teamer. I don't know why I'm on this list, tbh, as I was constantly criticised for not giving youngsters like JFC a chance

Oscar: If you look back early in the season when I had Crofts, Bridcutt, Stephens, Orlandi, Lopez, I didn't use Jake. Bridcutt lost focus, Crofts and Stephens got injured, Orlandi was in and out due to injury and Lopez was just inconsistent, so I didn't have a lot of options, but while he is not my first choice I was comfortable using when other options are gone.

Hyypia: Crofts and Stephens are still injured, who are Orlandi, Lopez and Bridcutt? I didn't think Ince was good enough and loaned out O'Grady, why are people using my player judgement as an argument?

Hughton: I've been in charge for 6 games. Jake has played in four of them, one of them was because Teixeira was sick I would be mad to have dropped Teixeira for Jake following Jaoa's performance v Ipswich, the following one was because I didn't think the pitch would give Teixeira a chance, which shows since his performance v Ipswich I'm gonna look to play Teixeira first, and only play Jake if there is a reason to not think I'll get the best from Jaoa. But I'm still settling on my first choice team, this may change with Stephens and Lualua coming back to fitness and the signing of Kayal. I'm also open to JFC improving now he is being played in his favourite position, but he may need a few games to get back into the swing of it having played defensive mid for a while now.

Southgate: Well, there isn't a wealth of English under 21 attacking midfielders playing first team football in the top two divisions, and when he plays against other kids he does a job.
 
Last edited:



Paying the bills

Latest Discussions

Paying the bills

Paying the bills

Paying the bills

Albion and Premier League latest from Sky Sports


Top
Link Here