Even sillier than can we make the "Playoffs" ?

D

Diablo

Well-known member

NSC Patron

Sep 22, 2014

4,187

lewes

• Dec 31, 2014

• #1

Mathematically we can still win league 22 wins 66 points would give us 89 which will almost certainly win league for us.


The bad news,


If each game we have 50%. Chance of winning 22 games in row is one in 4,194,304 so 4 million to one should be correct odds.

 

Last edited: Dec 31, 2014

carteater

Well-known member

Jan 1, 2014

4,825

West Sussex

• Dec 31, 2014

• #2

We're not going to finish in the top 10 let alone the playoffs

/thread closed.

 

M

matbha

Well-known member

Apr 13, 2014

983

• Dec 31, 2014

• #3

Diablo said:

Mathematically we can still win league 22 wins 66 points would give us 89 which will almost certainly win league for us.


The bad news,


If each game we have 50%. Chance of winning 22 games in row is one in 4,1943,04 so 4 million to one should be correct odds.

Click to expand...

Might put a pound on that

 

Coldeanseagull

Opinionated

Mar 13, 2013

7,777

Coldean

• Dec 31, 2014

• #4

Diablo said:

Mathematically we can still win league 22 wins 66 points would give us 89 which will almost certainly win league for us.


The bad news,


If each game we have 50%. Chance of winning 22 games in row is one in 4,1943,04 so 4 million to one should be correct odds.

Click to expand...

So, there's still a chance then? I'll stick with my 'we can make up 17 points for the playoffs' drink as my 4,194,304/1 drink gives me a sore head

 

Stat Brother

Well-known member

NSC Patron

Jul 11, 2003

73,667

West west west Sussex

• Dec 31, 2014

• #5

Although that means the Albion are 3 times more likely to win the league than I am to win the lottery.

 

Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park

NSC Patron

Apr 5, 2014

23,535

• Dec 31, 2014

• #6

And so the drinking begins...

 

J

jimbob5

Banned

Sep 18, 2014

2,697

• Dec 31, 2014

• #7

matbha said:

Might put a pound on that

Click to expand...

You can, but you won't get those sort of odds I suspect.

 

Acker79

Well-known member

NSC Patron

Nov 15, 2008

31,855

Brighton

• Dec 31, 2014

• #8

The title winning team has only had 89 points or less 6 times in the past 19 seasons. Less than one third, far from "almost certain".

However, to finish top you only need to beat second place by one point, and 89 points has been enough to beat second place 11 times in the last 19. More common, but still not common enough to say 89 points will "almost certainly win the title".

89 points would have been enough to finish above third in 18 out of the past 19 seasons, so it would almost certainly guarantee us automatic promotion.

 

British Bulldog

The great escape

Feb 6, 2006

10,895

• Dec 31, 2014

• #9

Can we just aim for safety first?

 

J

jimbob5

Banned

Sep 18, 2014

2,697

• Dec 31, 2014

• #10

Diablo said:

Mathematically we can still win league 22 wins 66 points would give us 89 which will almost certainly win league for us.


The bad news,


If each game we have 50%. Chance of winning 22 games in row is one in 4,194,304 so 4 million to one should be correct odds.

Click to expand...

Shirley 33.333.% chance of winning a game!

 

JBizzleBeard

Well-known member

Jan 23, 2007

3,797

Brighton

• Dec 31, 2014

• #11

Safety this season is all I care about.