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[Albion] Ignoring lack of talent and leadership, mathematically, it’s still possible!!



Mar 22, 2013
6
As each strategically inept , out-fought, out-played, loan-heavy and teamwork-free Albion game drifts into ignominious club history, I’m still desperately trying to resuscitate my dying optimism….but I think, finally, it might have flat-lined. It seems now a real possibility that next year my hard earned £180 per month for 3 season tickets might be funding League One Seagulls against Crawley Town in a titanic Sussex derby. (Although having said that, the Red Devils are only 8 points adrift of the playoffs).

Much has already been said about the who, when, how and why of this massive clusterf**k of a season, so I’ll not add any further to the ongoing autopsy report. Instead, I thought I’d give myself some Christmas cheer with a few brutal facts.

In the last 10 Championship seasons the lowest number of points for safety has been 44 and the highest 55. Let’s diddle for middle and go with 49 points for Albion to avoid a trip 25 miles up the A23. Taking our 18 points from 21 games into account, by my razor sharp reckoning we need 31 points..or to put it another way, 7 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses from 25 games. So far in 21 games we have managed 3 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses, and with each passing game there is an increasing sense of knockout stage anticipation and dread. Based on current form, and many hard hitting games to come, I can’t honestly see where we’ll find that set of results, unless of course they come down the chimney.

TB had better start penning his letter to the footballing Santa right now, for some real heavy hitters and a role model to inspire and lead; otherwise he’ll need a miracle greater than the second coming, if he continues to play the dodgy hand he’s dealt himself. (Excuse the mixed metaphor, whatever that is).

Oh, and just to end on a cheery note, the average number of points for the 6th place play-off spot over the last 10 Championship seasons is 73, or for Albion 18 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses. Merry Christmas!
 




narly101

Well-known member
Feb 16, 2009
2,683
London
Holy cow.

League One it is then. At least Season tickets won't be going up.
 


Holy cow.

League One it is then. At least Season tickets won't be going up.
Why not? It should be OBVIOUS to anyone with access to an excel spreadsheet and a pocket calculator that any organisation that is seeing its customer base disappear will need to increase charges for there to be any chance of maintaining revenue levels.

What do you think the Albion is? Some sort of club, delivering community benefits?
 


Incidentally, my pocket calculator tells me that, if the Albion are going to achieve 49 points by the end of the season, they will need another 31 points from the remaining 25 games. That's 1.24 points per game.

If we had scored 1.24 points per game from our first 21 games, we'd now have 26 points and be in 14th place in the table.

In other words ... if we can play as well as the fifteenth placed club, for the rest of the season, we stand a good chance of being relegated.
 




Prince Monolulu

Everything in Moderation
Oct 2, 2013
10,201
The Race Hill
I shall take it one game at a time. We're obviously disappointed but we need to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves down and move on having learned from our mistakes. This season is still a game of two halves.
It's a funny old game.
 


The Rivet

Well-known member
Aug 9, 2011
4,512
Strangely I really appreciate the post, can't say 'enjoyed' exactly but it was weirdly compelling. Almost like watching a horror film on your own CCTV and terrifying though you presume the outcome to be, there is a definite hope. Man! I hope.
 


Captain Sensible

Well-known member
Jul 8, 2003
6,435
Not the real one
Frightening. How much per season will we lose in L1? How much will the squad budget be cut, transport be cut, prices go up? We all assume we will go up but will we? What will Tony do then? This is my fear.
 




Felpham Seagull

New member
May 15, 2013
243
Felpham
As each strategically inept , out-fought, out-played, loan-heavy and teamwork-free Albion game drifts into ignominious club history, I’m still desperately trying to resuscitate my dying optimism….but I think, finally, it might have flat-lined. It seems now a real possibility that next year my hard earned £180 per month for 3 season tickets might be funding League One Seagulls against Crawley Town in a titanic Sussex derby. (Although having said that, the Red Devils are only 8 points adrift of the playoffs).

Much has already been said about the who, when, how and why of this massive clusterf**k of a season, so I’ll not add any further to the ongoing autopsy report. Instead, I thought I’d give myself some Christmas cheer with a few brutal facts.

In the last 10 Championship seasons the lowest number of points for safety has been 44 and the highest 55. Let’s diddle for middle and go with 49 points for Albion to avoid a trip 25 miles up the A23. Taking our 18 points from 21 games into account, by my razor sharp reckoning we need 31 points..or to put it another way, 7 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses from 25 games. So far in 21 games we have managed 3 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses, and with each passing game there is an increasing sense of knockout stage anticipation and dread. Based on current form, and many hard hitting games to come, I can’t honestly see where we’ll find that set of results, unless of course they come down the chimney.

TB had better start penning his letter to the footballing Santa right now, for some real heavy hitters and a role model to inspire and lead; otherwise he’ll need a miracle greater than the second coming, if he continues to play the dodgy hand he’s dealt himself. (Excuse the mixed metaphor, whatever that is).

Oh, and just to end on a cheery note, the average number of points for the 6th place play-off spot over the last 10 Championship seasons is 73, or for Albion 18 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses. Merry Christmas!

Feck me 18 wins how many games will the dim finn need to achieve that?
 


BensGrandad

New member
Jul 13, 2003
72,015
Haywards Heath
A successful League 1 season would not lose money. Crowds would stay much the same but with less ST wages would be drastically reduced. Transport costs and stadium costs would stay the same. The only income that would be down is our portion of TV rights.
 






Mar 22, 2013
6
I'm liking your head for a good wholesome statistical fact. Your spreadsheet sounds more sophisticated than mine.

Moving away from spreadsheets, in my recent nightmares I see myself in a group of 4 people in the jungle being chased by a man-eating tiger - I just need to make sure I can run faster than the other 3. Run Sami Run...
 




Captain Sensible

Well-known member
Jul 8, 2003
6,435
Not the real one
A successful League 1 season would not lose money. Crowds would stay much the same but with less ST wages would be drastically reduced. Transport costs and stadium costs would stay the same. The only income that would be down is our portion of TV rights.

Are you serious? L1 would not see attendances down further and bigger losses? Geez cut the squad any more and we'll be employing part timers. Honestly, where do we start losing money then? Considering PB said we lose £10 million a year now, and those were play off seasons, when do losses increase? L1, L2 or conference?
 




scousefan

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2009
1,242
Liverpool
Great thread. It's scary, but the sanest and most realistic thinking I've seen on here in a while.

Basically we're going down unless we turn ourselves into a top half team in January.
 


Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
71,903
Living In a Box
A successful League 1 season would not lose money. Crowds would stay much the same but with less ST wages would be drastically reduced. Transport costs and stadium costs would stay the same. The only income that would be down is our portion of TV rights.

League 1 could possibly mean certain stands being closed to save money
 


Spun Cuppa

Thanks Greens :(
Why not? It should be OBVIOUS to anyone with access to an excel spreadsheet and a pocket calculator that any organisation that is seeing its customer base disappear will need to increase charges for there to be any chance of maintaining revenue levels.

What do you think the Albion is? Some sort of club, delivering community benefits?

Irony in the extra-brut sphere. Top notch :clap:
 











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