Statistics or Lies? In the last 10 games...

Colonel Angus · Nov 9, 2014

... only 4 teams in the division have lost fewer games than us (Bournemouth, Middlesbrough, Ipswich and Blackburn). So that must mean we're pretty solid!!

Well we know that's not true and there are several other teams who have lost the same games as us ( 2 ) and others that have lost more, but crucially all of these teams have won more and so they are higher up the table.

It does however mean that, as we've known for several weeks, a more competitive midfield (as seen against Bournemouth and Blackburn recently) and a much better strike force, we could turn those draws into wins and start to move back up the table. I think we do have the midfielders at the club, but we absolutely have to spend the Ulloa money more wisely in January to get a big target man to replace what we lost.

jessiejames · Nov 9, 2014

Nothing in any of the home games this season suggests that even with Ulloa the results would have been any different to what they were IMO.

Its the formation and tactics that seem the problem and this is down to SH and NJ.

Lifelong Supporter · Nov 9, 2014

Ulloa is no miracle worker but scored every couple of games for us. He is a good focal point and the team know if they manage to put the balls in the right areas he will score at our level.

I do reckon that he would have scored a handful of goals for us this season, considerably more than any of our other strikers. Just a couple more wins would be four extra points which would put us rather comfortably mid table.

jessiejames · Nov 9, 2014

But we would have needed to put the balls into him and ATM we don't seem to be able to do that.

GT49er · Nov 9, 2014

The only statistic that matters is that we're 20th in the league.

Even those who have long been wearing the thickest industrial strength rose-tinted specs known to man now have to accept that we're not very good at the moment, so the only argument left is whether we're sh1t because Sami's sh1t, or we're sh1t because the players (and therefore by implication, the recruitment team) are sh1t.......or both.

redoubtable seagull · Nov 9, 2014

jessiejames said:
But we would have needed to put the balls into him and ATM we don't seem to be able to do that.

True, but Ulloa's touch, strength and ability when he had his back to goal would have linked up the midfield play more effectively. Something Barnes was good at too. I despair at the first touch of the current crop although as others have observed, the system Sami uses does not play to CMS, Colunga or Baldocks strengths.

parks · Nov 9, 2014

jessiejames said:
Nothing in any of the home games this season suggests that even with Ulloa the results would have been any different to what they were IMO.

Its the formation and tactics that seem the problem and this is down to SH and NJ.

Spot on....

We are generally poor with the ball, we seem not to know what to do with it when we do have it. Baldock makes some good runs, just as JFC passes it backwards.

perseus · Nov 9, 2014

Stats are a reality check:

2nd place shots per game behind Blackburn
5th place possession comparable with Norwich
3rd place, passing success behind Derby and Bournemouth

1st place, interceptions, well above any other club
2nd place, dribbles per game behind Norwich

http://www.whoscored.com/Regions/25...TeamStatistics/England-Championship-2014-2015

Shots on target at 13th not as bad as expected
Shots from in the penalty area at 5th, quite a bit below the best teams is not as bad as expected
Even in shots within the goal area we come third.

To my mind, there are a few tweak but nothing to suggest that Sami Hyypia is failing massively.

I think Harty with his comments is completely and utterly out of order.

Stats suggest that cut out individual mistakes and opposition brilliancies and luck we should be about 12th.

I think we should have had 3 more points down to the attack against Cardiff (2) defence at Bournemouth (1) and that would put us 15th.

Opponent brilliancies Huddersfield (2 pts dropped), Blackburn (2) and Sheff Weds (1) would give us an extra 5 pts and be on the fringe of the play-offs.

parks · Nov 9, 2014

We just need to score more goals than the opposition...where do we stand in that stat?

symyjym · Nov 9, 2014

perseus said:
Stats are a reality check:

2nd place shots per game behind Blackburn
5th place possession comparable with Norwich
3rd place, passing success behind Derby and Bournemouth

1st place, interceptions, well above any other club
2nd place, dribbles per game behind Norwich

http://www.whoscored.com/Regions/25...TeamStatistics/England-Championship-2014-2015

Shots on target at 13th not as bad as expected
Shots from in the penalty area at 5th, quite a bit below the best teams is not as bad as expected
Even in shots within the goal area we come third.

To my mind, there are a few tweak but nothing to suggest that Sami Hyypia is failing massively.

I think Harty with his comments is completely and utterly out of order.

Stats suggest that cut out individual mistakes and opposition brilliancies and luck we should be about 12th.

I think we should have had 3 more points down to the attack against Cardiff (2) defence at Bournemouth (1) and that would put us 15th.

Opponent brilliancies Huddersfield (2 pts dropped), Blackburn (2) and Sheff Weds (1) would give us an extra 5 pts and be on the fringe of the play-offs.

Agree, we need a bit more luck, quality, and less individual errors. All of these elements are in the players hands during the game and are beyond the managers control.

perseus · Nov 9, 2014

Ulloa = 10 pts

parks said:
We just need to score more goals than the opposition...where do we stand in that stat?

15th which is about where he should be on our performances. I wonder how many Ulloa goals actually won us points last season? Without Ulloa's goals we would have 10 less points.

Without Crofts it would be 7 less points, Lopez 4 Buckley 3. Dale Stephens and Stephen Ward got us an extra 2 pts each.

So when it comes down to it we have lost all six of players best at scoring goals at the right time to gain the points. And this seems to be the bit that is missing, players with the bottle and technique to score when it really matters.

Stats suggest recruitments and selling of players caused the demise.

Tactics: I think we have lost at least two goals from Calderon pushing forward (away), but we have gained two goals with his two assists (at home) as well.

There appears to something missing on the right in attack.

bhawoddy · Nov 9, 2014

perseus said:
15th which is about where he should be on our performances. I wonder how many Ulloa goals actually won us points last season? Without Ulloa's goals we would have 10 less points.

Without Crofts it would be 7 less points, Lopez 4 Buckley 3. Dale Stephens and Stephen Ward got us an extra 2 pts each.

So when it comes down to it we have lost all six of players best at scoring goals at the right time to gain the points. And this seems to be the bit that is missing, players with the bottle and technique to score when it really matters.

Stats suggest recruitments and selling of players caused the demise.

Tactics: I think we have lost at least two goals from Calderon pushing forward (away), but we have gained two goals with his two assists (at home) as well.

There appears to something missing on the right in attack.

What a load of b......s. We are where we are in the league because that's where we deserve to be. If we finish mid table then that's where we deserve to be. All this, if we had ulloa or if Calderon didn't attack we would be points better off is utter horseshit.

perseus · Nov 9, 2014

Passing the ball around without hurting the opposition

2012-13 the biggest points winners were Buckley 11 and Barnes 9. Macca and Ulloa (half season each) 6 each.

It could be argued that we have lost all our game winners. I have not got the figures for the misses of both Barnes and Macca that should have got us more points. Got to be in the position to miss them though.

It could that we are missing the ingredient aggression in our forwards? It is a temperament. Some players just have it. Technique can be learned.

GT49er · Nov 9, 2014

perseus said:
2012-13 the biggest points winners were Buckley 11 and Barnes 9. Macca and Ulloa (half season each) 6 each.

It could be argued that we have lost all our game winners. I have not got the figures for the misses of both Barnes and Macca that should have got us more points. Got to be in the position to miss them though.

It could that we are missing the ingredient aggression in our forwards? It is a temperament. Some players just have it. Technique can be learned.

"Some players just have it" - yep. So much for stats!

perseus · Nov 9, 2014

Albion stats (Championship only):

Overall best ratings: Lewis Dunk (29th)
Best key passer: João Teixeira
Best passer: Danny Holla
Shots per game: Gary Gardner
Tackles: Íñigo Calderón
Penalty Area: Chris O'Grady
Out of box shots: Kazenga Lualua/Gary Gardner
Defensive: Lewis Dunk
Offensive: Lewis Dunk
Most passes: Gordon Greer
Dribbles past player: Kazenga Lualua/João Teixeira (2nd and 4th in league ratings)
Most fouled: Kazenga Lualua
Blocks: Lewis Dunk
Crosses: Íñigo Calderón
Clearances: Gordon Greer
Aerials won: Lewis Dunk
Interceptions: Lewis Dunk/Rohan Ince

Long balls per game (not keepers): Gordon Greer/Lewis Dunk

Negatives:

Bad control: João Teixeira
Unsuccessful touches: Adam Chicksen/João Teixeira
Dispossessed: Sam Baldock/João Teixeira/Elliott Bennett

Too low % to be important:

Through balls: João Teixeira/Jake Forster-Caskey (1st and 2nd in league ratings)
Corners: Danny Holla/Jake Forster-Caskey
Crosses (overall poor): Íñigo Calderón/Jake Forster-Caskey/Adrián Colunga
Freekicks (key passes): Elliott Bennett
Also (very low %): Jake Forster-Caskey
Even lower %: Paddy McCourt/Adrián Colunga/Danny Holla
Through balls resulting in goals (excellent Albion record but infrequent occurrence): Bruno/João Teixeira/Lewis Dunk
Only 2 throw-ins have resulted in goals in the Championship this season
Our best key throw-ins: Íñigo Calderón

Summary: I'm not into % football, but some players seem to get more into the game.

Pavilionaire · Nov 9, 2014

The key stats are the ones about the strikers. Two or three crosses went begging early in the first half again vs Blackburn. As well as not scoring the defence can relax a little knowing there's no threat.

If other stats support the case that the rest of the team is not so bad then that's because it isn't. If we had signed Murray and Becchio instead of O'Grady and Colunga this season would be very different.

perseus · Nov 9, 2014

Pass %

Holla 85.3%
Dunk 85%
J Bennett 84.2%
Forster-Caskey 84.1%
Ince 82.6%
Bruno 81.9%
Greer 81.9%
Gardner 81.5%
Teixeira 80.7%
Baldock 79.5%
Lualua 79.2%
Mackail-Smith 79.1%
------------------------------
Calderón 72.9%
Stockdale 72.7%
Colunga 70.3%

Most passes in order:

Dunk
Greer
Forster-Caskey
Bruno
Holla
Gardner
J Bennett
------------------
Calderón
Stockdale
Ince
Lualua
Baldock
Colunga
------------------
Mackail-Smith

perseus · Nov 10, 2014

Pavilionaire said:
The key stats are the ones about the strikers. Two or three crosses went begging early in the first half again vs Blackburn. As well as not scoring the defence can relax a little knowing there's no threat.

If other stats support the case that the rest of the team is not so bad then that's because it isn't. If we had signed Murray and Becchio instead of O'Grady and Colunga this season would be very different.

Baldock had a chance that I don't think Murray would have converted. That's all I remember. Murray might have done better against Wigan with the two Lualua crosses. We did not create much against Blackburn.

Stats say that the rest of the Norwich players are doing well, especially Redmond and that Elliott Bennett would struggle to get in their first XI. Stats also say we will struggle not to get outplayed by Derby; and Wolves look good in midfield as well. The rest of the Championship do not seem any better than us.

JBenno · Nov 10, 2014

Pavilionaire said:
The key stats are the ones about the strikers. Two or three crosses went begging early in the first half again vs Blackburn. As well as not scoring the defence can relax a little knowing there's no threat.

If other stats support the case that the rest of the team is not so bad then that's because it isn't. If we had signed Murray and Becchio instead of O'Grady and Colunga this season would be very different.

I'm with this, 2 or 3 great deliveries into dangerous penalty box areas in first half, that you just know Ulloa or for arguments sake Gestede would have eaten up....

perseus · Nov 10, 2014

Missing from inside the Box

JBenno said:
I'm with this, 2 or 3 great deliveries into dangerous penalty box areas in first half, that you just know Ulloa or for arguments sake Gestede would have eaten up....

Our best player for getting a shot away in the penalty area is Chris O'Grady (stats). My sus said it should be Lewis Dunk

(to double check later)

Shots from within the penalty area (recent ones remembered)
Not that I remember them. Off hand I think of Baldock, Elliott Bennett and Teixeira for recent misses. Only the Elliott Bennett miss would I be confident that better strikers (or Dunk) would score.

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