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Deleted User X18H
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The most significant political barometer of our time?
Well so far!
Well so far!
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them
I'm not sure a UKIP win is a sure thing is it? If it was, Farage would have stood there. Think it will be very close - with them, Tories and Labour all in with a shout.
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them
Farage rejected the opportunity to stand so clearly he has doubts ?
Farage rejected the opportunity to stand so clearly he has doubts ?
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them
That is a massive assumption. The conservative share of the vote in Newark in 2010 was 53% and UKP's was 3%. The largest swing in UK election history was 21%
a marginal seat that
That's nowhere near true: the biggest by election swing was 44% in Bermondsey in 1983 - there have been 15 by election swings bigger than 21% in fact.
UKIP should have this on toast. They have all the factors in their favour: a long history of by election protest votes; a marginal seat that has swung between Labour and Tories in the last 20 years; the previous MP kicked out for malpractice; being placed in the geographic area that leans most heavily towards UKIP and close enough to the European elections to put UKIP's main policy to the front of people's minds. As it's a by election, UKIP can avoid one of its problems - the lack of resources - and concentrate on the one seat. It's hard to think of a more propitious set of circumstances for UKIP.
At normal times, UKIP would be in with a chance, when we've just seen a "political earthquake", they should be a shoo-in. According to the Telegraph, the Newark vote in the Euro elections would see UKIP win comfortably.
I hadn't realised they weren't favourites, I've just splashed out at that 11/4
isnt a marginal seat at all with 16k majority.
That's nowhere near true: the biggest by election swing was 44% in Bermondsey in 1983 - there have been 15 by election swings bigger than 21% in fact.
I'm not sure a UKIP win is a sure thing is it? If it was, Farage would have stood there. Think it will be very close - with them, Tories and Labour all in with a shout.
What constitutes a protest vote though, if UKIP were to record the biggest swing in political history could they repeat on mass scale come the general election.
I hope, for the sake of sanity, that the election campaign is not as ugly as that one.
Farage said he wasn't standing because he had no connection with the area.
Newark is a difficult place to predict: it is a prosperous market town, with excellent communications. It only fell to Labour in their landslide year of 1997 ...