Brighton have 38.88% chance of making the playoffs.

Peter Grummit · May 1, 2014

Brighton 9/4 to make the playoffs
Reading 1/3

Bet 365 only market at present.

So, split the difference means we have a 38.88% chance of making it.

PG

Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo · May 1, 2014

Skybet are going with exactly the same prices.

keaton · May 1, 2014

Peter Grummit said:
Brighton 9/4 to make the playoffs
Reading 1/3

Bet 365 only market at present.

So, split the difference means we have a 38.88% chance of making it.

PG

Don't we have 9/4 chance of making it then?

Betfair Bozo · May 1, 2014

3.65 on Betfair for top 6 finish (albeit for pennies.)
1.35 Reading (8 grand available.)
70 Blackburn.

father_and_son · May 1, 2014

Placed two bets today to cover consolation scenarios...

Brighton to Win AND Reading to Win (just shy of 4-1)
Brighton Draw AND Reading Draw (just over 10-1)

Simster · May 1, 2014

father_and_son said:
Placed two bets today to cover consolation scenarios...

Brighton to Win AND Reading to Win (just shy of 4-1)
Brighton Draw AND Reading Draw (just over 10-1)

All you've done is guaranteed one thing:

were loose

Mackenzie · May 1, 2014

father_and_son said:
Placed two bets today to cover consolation scenarios...

Brighton to Win AND Reading to Win (just shy of 4-1)
Brighton Draw AND Reading Draw (just over 10-1)

Brighton Lose and Reading Win seems the most likely!!!

seagullsovergrimsby · May 1, 2014

If Ashley Barnes does the business on Saturday I would say our chances of making the play offs are very much in our favour.

father_and_son · May 1, 2014

MacKenzie said:
Brighton Lose and Reading Win seems the most likely!!!

Blasphemy! That could never happen.

Mackenzie · May 1, 2014

father_and_son said:
Blasphemy! That could never happen.

hans kraay fan club · May 1, 2014

I bet £10 on Reading winning v Boro last Tuesday @ evens, and then chucked the £20 back on them to beat Donny on Saturday, to sweeten the bitter pill, of their inevitable victories.

Now I'm TORN. Do I throw the resulting £42 back on them to beat Burnley, or not?

Will I simply GUARANTEE they win?

More likely they'll LOSE, costing me MONEY, and the Albion will go and stuff up their end of the bargain, too!

TomandJerry · May 1, 2014

Mr William Hill currently don't have a bet for this, though currently in a live chat with this chap and he's getting it sorted out

Reply - "Kindly expect an email update from us not more than 24 hours from now."

easynow · May 1, 2014

So-Youre-Telling-Me-Theres-a-Chance-In-Dumb-and-Dumber-Gif.gif

symyjym · May 1, 2014

I feel about 38.88 confident so it sounds about right to me.

Vegas Seagull · May 1, 2014

I have £200 @ 6/4 on Reading to finish Top 6 from last July..happy to take advice on what result I want tomorrow

soistes · May 1, 2014

Peter Grummit said:
Brighton 9/4 to make the playoffs
Reading 1/3

Bet 365 only market at present.

So, split the difference means we have a 38.88% chance of making it.

PG

Well that sort of suggests that the bookies think we have the edge, i.e our odds are better than random, while Reading's are worse than random.
There are nine possible permutations of outcomes from the two games, but we get into the playoffs in only three of them, so if the outcomes of the two games were entirely random, we would have only a 33.3% chance of playoffs.

8ace · May 1, 2014

Peter Grummit said:
Brighton 9/4 to make the playoffs
Reading 1/3

Bet 365 only market at present.

So, split the difference means we have a 38.88% chance of making it.

PG

Triggaaar · May 1, 2014

Peter Grummit said:
Brighton 9/4 to make the playoffs
Reading 1/3

So, split the difference means we have a 38.88% chance of making it.

So if you put £4 on us, you'll get £13 back 38.88% of the time, which = £5.05 average. I think you've got your number wrong.

Vegas Seagull said:
I have £200 @ 6/4 on Reading to finish Top 6 from last July..happy to take advice on what result I want tomorrow

Who's playing tomorrow?

Dr. Notthenineo'clocknews · May 1, 2014

I'm lost here, If Reading are 1/3 that takes up 75% of the book and 9/4 equates to just shy of 31% that gives a (hypothetical) profit to the layers of just over 6%, where does the precise figure of 38.88% come from?

Lord Bracknell · May 1, 2014

Peter Grummit said:
Brighton 9/4 to make the playoffs
Reading 1/3

Bet 365 only market at present.

So, split the difference means we have a 38.88% chance of making it.

PG

That's interesting, because - on the basis that there are two matches being played and both teams start with equal goal difference - there are nine possible outcomes:-

Albion win / Reading win
Albion draw / Reading win
Albion lose / Reading win
Albion win / Reading draw
Albion draw / Reading draw
Albion lose / Reading draw
Albion win / Reading lose
Albion draw / Reading lose
Albion lose / Reading lose

33.3% of those results get us into the playoffs.

But the bookies have set odds which give us a 38.88% chance.

Which means that the bookies give us a better than random chance of getting there, and Reading are being given a worse than random chance.

Were loose? Apparently not (at least in the mind of Honest Joe, the punter's friend).

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