Will 74 points be enough to get us in the play offs?

chez · Mar 13, 2014

Coz that's what I think we'll end up with.

Bolton (A) - Draw
Ipswich (H) - Win
Sheff Wed (A) - Draw
Boro (H) - Draw
Blackburn (A) - Lose
Barnsley (A) - Win
Leicester (A) - Lose
Charlton (H) - Win
Huddersfield (A) - Win
Blackpool (H) - Win
Yeovil (H) - Win
Forest (A) - Lose

Machiavelli · Mar 13, 2014

chez said:
Coz that's what I think we'll end up with.

Bolton (A) - Draw WIN
Ipswich (H) - Win WIN
Sheff Wed (A) - Draw WIN
Boro (H) - Draw WIN
Blackburn (A) - Lose LOSS
Barnsley (A) - Win WIN
Leicester (A) - Lose LOSS
Charlton (H) - Win WIN
Huddersfield (A) - Win DRAW
Blackpool (H) - Win WIN
Yeovil (H) - Win WIN
Forest (A) - Lose PLEASE WIN, BUT THINK LOSS

Think 74 will be enough, which I view as seven wins. As I keep on saying, whatever the average for sixth place points in the past doesn't matter. It's the average for seventh place points that matter. We need to get one more than that. For what it's worth, I think that this season the total will be lower than the average. I've put my expectations above, which would put us on 78 points, which means that if 74 sees us over the line, we can take out a win and a draw, and we'll still make it.

Rugrat · Mar 13, 2014

I'm going for 75 and coming down to a final day shoot out between us Forest and Reading ... only thing for sure is that's wrong!!!

Triggaaar · Mar 13, 2014

As with the last two seasons, it's going to be a nerve wracking fight to the line. Great, and awful at the same time. I'm getting butterflies thinking about it.

sydney · Mar 13, 2014

i don't think so ,we are so unpredictable there is know way of getting yer melon around what might happen .....we are just as likely to beat forest as we are to lose to barnsley , just as likely to beat lester as we are to loose to huddersfield or blackpool.........game on ...!!

symyjym · Mar 13, 2014

Possibly, Leicester City finished in sixth with 68 points last season, but the season before in sixth was Cardiff on 75.

The last 10 games have averaged 1.7 points per game so if we continue with this we should end up with 73-74 points.

5 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses could see us scrape through, so it is not a massive task.

dougdeep · Mar 13, 2014

As we're doing the same threads every day now I'll give the same answer as I did yesterday. Points are immaterial, there are Wigan, Reading and Forest. If we finish above two of them we'll make the play-offs.

Triggaaar · Mar 13, 2014

Machiavelli said:
As I keep on saying, whatever the average for sixth place points in the past doesn't matter. It's the average for seventh place points that matter.

I don't agree. If we get a point more than the average for 7th, but 6 teams get as much as the average for 6th (which, on average, usually happens), then we miss out. Of course any team that finishes in the top 6, could have made it only just beating the team in 7th - however, any team below the top 6th, would have to beat the team in 6th to make it. Eg, if it finished as in Rugrats example above, any team in the top 6 would only need 73 points to finish in the top 6. We, however, would need 76.

Triggaaar · Mar 13, 2014

dougdeep said:
As we're doing the same threads every day now I'll give the same answer as I did yesterday. Points are immaterial, there are Wigan, Reading and Forest. If we finish above two of them we'll make the play-offs.

I think that's probably the reality of it.

mejonaNO12 aka riskit · Mar 13, 2014

Dunno.

Rugrat · Mar 13, 2014

Triggaaar said:
I don't agree. If we get a point more than the average for 7th, but 6 teams get as much as the average for 6th (which, on average, usually happens), then we miss out. Of course any team that finishes in the top 6, could have made it only just beating the team in 7th - however, any team below the top 6th, would have to beat the team in 6th to make it. Eg, if it finished as in Rugrats example above, any team in the top 6 would only need 73 points to finish in the top 6. We, however, would need 76.

I'm very capable of confusing myself

Simster · Mar 13, 2014

Machiavelli said:
Think 74 will be enough, which I view as seven wins. As I keep on saying, whatever the average for sixth place points in the past doesn't matter. It's the average for seventh place points that matter. We need to get one more than that. For what it's worth, I think that this season the total will be lower than the average. I've put my expectations above, which would put us on 78 points, which means that if 74 sees us over the line, we can take out a win and a draw, and we'll still make it.

Yes, you do keep saying it, and yes you keep being ignored because it's a pointless and not particularly clever observation, especially as a lot depends on against whom those points are won.

We all KNOW we need one point more than 7th place. What we don't know is how many that points total will actually be, so really it doesn't matter whether you average out the number of points 6th place got over the last decade, or the number of points 7th place got and add one - the two numbers are likely to be very similar.

And I've just checked - they are. The average gap between 6th and 7th over the past 10 years is 2.3 points. And that is only because of the anomaly of 2006 where there was a massive 8 point gap. The median average gap between 6th and 7th in that 10 year period (which is more relevant) is actually only 1.5 points.

Oh, and this is the correct answer:

dougdeep said:
As we're doing the same threads every day now I'll give the same answer as I did yesterday. Points are immaterial, there are Wigan, Reading and Forest. If we finish above two of them we'll make the play-offs.

Although, I'd add Derby to that because they seem very catchable to me.

symyjym · Mar 13, 2014

If all the clubs keep to their current last six game form we will finish above Derby, QPR and Forest.

http://www.footballformguide.net/form/sky-bet-championship

Bearing in mind that we have nothing to lose, whereas the teams above us are all stalling and getting very nervous.

No pressure in us.

Pavilionaire · Mar 13, 2014

How the hell is Ulloa going to manage 5 games in 15 days, especially as 4 of those are away and 3 of them long trips to the north? And he's likely to be knackered going into them having had a testing quartet of Reading, QPR, Bolton and Ipswich beforehand. Ideally, we need Hoskins back and firing for the Sheff Wed match.

That fixture list is not kind to us. If I was offered 6th spot only if we beat Forest at the City Ground on the final day I'd bite your hand off now.

Goldstone1976 · Mar 13, 2014

Pavilionaire said:
If I was offered 6th spot only if we beat Forest at the City Ground on the final day I'd bite your hand off now.

Oooh, I don't think I would. Unless Forest go on a dreadful run between now and then and are out of playoff contention and utterly demoralised (all of which I accept is just possible), I think the best we can hope for in that game is a draw, and even that's a bit of a stretch. Of all the teams we've played this season, Forest were the ones who seemed to me to best able to work us out; they are the only ones I feel totally outplayed us. Obviously, I hope your optimism comes true. Well, actually, I hope we've secured a playoff place before that game!

Pavilionaire · Mar 13, 2014

To be honest, I don't think we'll be in a position to finish Top 6 going into that final game. We are still too reliant on Ulloa and with his overall fitness and so many matches in such a short space of time I think it unlikely we'll get past the Leicester away match still in a position to seriously contend.

TSB · Mar 13, 2014

Poll?

Yes, yes it will.

Triggaaar · Mar 13, 2014

Pavilionaire said:
How the hell is Ulloa going to manage 5 games in 15 days

Because he's a god.

Footsoldier · Mar 13, 2014

Pavilionaire said:
How the hell is Ulloa going to manage 5 games in 15 days, especially as 4 of those are away and 3 of them long trips to the north? And he's likely to be knackered going into them having had a testing quartet of Reading, QPR, Bolton and Ipswich beforehand. Ideally, we need Hoskins back and firing for the Sheff Wed match.

That fixture list is not kind to us. If I was offered 6th spot only if we beat Forest at the City Ground on the final day I'd bite your hand off now.

Is he hitch hiking to these games?

Simster · Mar 13, 2014

Triggaaar said:
Because he's a god.

He certainly showed all the agility and movement of Buddha on Tuesday night up until he scored, yes.

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