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How many point will be required for the playoffs?



Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,721
Back in Sussex
We're 1 point down on the same point last season but, as others have said, from January we really kicked on, largely inspired by our transfer activity.

We're on 40 points from 27 games - 1.48 points per game. If we carry on at this same rate we'll end up on 68 points.

Over the last 9 games we have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2. That's 15 points, or 1.66 points per game. If we carry on at this same rate we'll end up on 71 points.

Past seasons 6th places....

2012/13 Leicester 71 points
2011/12 Cardiff 75 points
2010/11 Forest 75 points
2009/10 Blackpool 70 points
2008/09 Preston 74 points
2007/08 Watford 70 points

What will be enough this season?
 




M

Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,647
Fiveways
Two things to throw in to the mix:
1. there's currently a big gap between the top four and the rest. I'm of the view that Burnley might struggle to remain in it, but that the other three probably will. In other words, there'll be a clear top three. That leaves about six or seven clubs fighting it out for the final three places to make the play-offs. Of these five are likely to be: Burnley, Forest, Reading, Brighton and Wigan, with one or two of Ipswich, Middlesborough and Leeds. The more clubs that are challenging for the play-offs, the lower the final total will be.
2. it's stating the obvious, but draws yield two points, and wins/losses yield three. The number of points will be affected by the number of draws, particularly in those games played by teams in the top half.
So, my guess work says 72. I was going to indicate a total for the Albion, but will refrain until after Friday at 11 to do that.
 


Rugrat

Rugrat

Well-known member
Mar 13, 2011
10,215
Seaford
Machiavelli said:
Two things to throw in to the mix:
1. there's currently a big gap between the top four and the rest. I'm of the view that Burnley might struggle to remain in it, but that the other three probably will. In other words, there'll be a clear top three. That leaves about six or seven clubs fighting it out for the final three places to make the play-offs. Of these five are likely to be: Burnley, Forest, Reading, Brighton and Wigan, with one or two of Ipswich, Middlesborough and Leeds. The more clubs that are challenging for the play-offs, the lower the final total will be.
2. it's stating the obvious, but draws yield two points, and wins/losses yield three. The number of points will be affected by the number of draws, particularly in those games played by teams in the top half.
So, my guess work says 72. I was going to indicate a total for the Albion, but will refrain until after Friday at 11 to do that.
Click to expand...

With you on most of that but think Blackburn will be in mix too .. think Burnley will fade and it will be as many as 8 fighting for 2 spots .... my latest predictor (here)

http://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?292620-End-of-season-predictor&highlight=end+of+season+predictor

is saying 77 but impossible to predict the upsets that will come but I'm thinking 74 might do it
 


Icy Gull

Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
Mini league of Wigan, Blackburn, Reading, Derby Ipswich and us for 5th and 6th place, I don't expect us to be able to do better than 6th tbh. No idea how many points that will require though. I can see Leicester, QPR and Forest battling it out at the top and Burnley maybe fading but we have said that all season, I expect them to be 4th at worst..
 


Jimmy Grimble

Jimmy Grimble

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2007
9,746
Starting a revolution from my bed
72/73.

We're in desperate need of 2/3 transfers. Not just for the value of strengthening our side/squad, but for the momentum and feel-good factor that comes with new talent. Conway coming back, for example, would be a psychological boost for the management and players as they know the difference he made towards the end of his loan spell. The team would have more belief going into the final third of the season. Even better would be if we managed to get someone like Wickham. The players would be well aware of his ability having played against him and seen his stats. Given a few training sessions the players become more aware and excited by the prospect of having him in the side. It could quite easily contribute to increased confidence and belief, particularly if the new players bed in well with the group and hit the ground running.
 






edna krabappel

edna krabappel

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
47,221
Blackburn for me depends on whether they sell Rhodes.
 


Hamilton

Hamilton

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
12,454
Brighton
The number that popped into my head was 72 before opening the thread. Pure finger in the air guesswork.

Looking at some of the games we've got coming up, it'll be a tough ask.
 




crodonilson

crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
13,524
Lyme Regis
Bozza said:
We're 1 point down on the same point last season but, as others have said, from January we really kicked on, largely inspired by our transfer activity.

We're on 40 points from 27 games - 1.48 points per game. If we carry on at this same rate we'll end up on 68 points.

Over the last 9 games we have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2. That's 15 points, or 1.66 points per game. If we carry on at this same rate we'll end up on 71 points.

Past seasons 6th places....

2012/13 Leicester 71 points
2011/12 Cardiff 75 points
2010/11 Forest 75 points
2009/10 Blackpool 70 points
2008/09 Preston 74 points
2007/08 Watford 70 points

What will be enough this season?
Click to expand...

More pertinently what were the totals of the sides finishing 7th in these seasons, we need to be 1 better than those totals. I'd say 72 should do it, lots of teams taking points off each other.
 


Surf's Up

Surf's Up

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2011
10,167
Here
Leicester are already looking like they're out of sight, I can't see them faltering. The next tier will consist of QPR, Derby and Forest two of whom will occupy the first two playoff places. The battle for the remaining two slots will be between Burnley, Reading, Ipswich, ourselves, Blackburn, Wigan, Leeds and Middlesborough. As everyone is capable of beating everyone I reckon the last playoff slot could be going for as little as 68 points, probably with goal difference being the deciding factor.
 


B.W.

B.W.

New member
Jul 5, 2003
13,666
Jimmy Grimble said:
72/73.

We're in desperate need of 2/3 transfers. Not just for the value of strengthening our side/squad, but for the momentum and feel-good factor that comes with new talent. Conway coming back, for example, would be a psychological boost for the management and players as they know the difference he made towards the end of his loan spell. The team would have more belief going into the final third of the season. Even better would be if we managed to get someone like Wickham. The players would be well aware of his ability having played against him and seen his stats. Given a few training sessions the players become more aware and excited by the prospect of having him in the side. It could quite easily contribute to increased confidence and belief, particularly if the new players bed in well with the group and hit the ground running.
Click to expand...

Great post. Here's hoping we FINALLY get some players in. Still a couple of days.
 














S

severnside gull

Well-known member
May 16, 2007
24,540
By the seaside in West Somerset
Somewhere in the range 71 to 73 looks most likely.
To have a chance we need to find some goals from centre midfield and for our strikers to up their conversion ratio.
Tough call. Think we will make it............just!
 




Goldstone1976

Goldstone1976

We Got Calde in!!
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Apr 30, 2013
13,784
Herts
Bozza said:
We're 1 point down on the same point last season but, as others have said, from January we really kicked on, largely inspired by our transfer activity.

We're on 40 points from 27 games - 1.48 points per game. If we carry on at this same rate we'll end up on 68 points.

Over the last 9 games we have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2. That's 15 points, or 1.66 points per game. If we carry on at this same rate we'll end up on 71 points.

Past seasons 6th places....

2012/13 Leicester 71 points
2011/12 Cardiff 75 points
2010/11 Forest 75 points
2009/10 Blackpool 70 points
2008/09 Preston 74 points
2007/08 Watford 70 points

What will be enough this season?
Click to expand...

We could average worse than our last nine games if we don't bring players in who can score or give great assists in the next 2 days - over the course of the transfer window we've lost Barnes and Crofts (the latter to injury) and brought in Obika, so that's net worse than the average of the last nine games. To offset that, we can hope that Len starts popping them in again, I guess. So, my guess is that if we don't bring in any more attack-minded players we'll end up on 69/70 points.

I think the cut-off will be 72 points +/- 1 point.

So, if we carry on with the current squad, my guess is that we'll finish c 8th.

If however we do get another striker (but where will he play if Oscar continues with 4-5-1 and Len remains our #1 striker?) &/or an attacking CM, we could easily get the required extra 3 points.

With Oscar and Nathan both saying that we're working hard to bring in extra players, one has to believe them and hope we're successful in doing so. If we're not successful in doing so, I will need to reflect a bit before commenting on why we haven't been successful....
 


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